Agreed I would really like it to hit 1.02/ S1 weekly pivot. Price is sitting on support but if it can run the stops resting here then we are cleared for 1.02. The issue I have here is that fig held up great in 2011 not so much in 2012 (not saying it didnt hold but in 2011 it was a force not to be reckoned with). So I honestly cant say. Its the bottom of the range so I would not be short. I am probably out till I get a reject of 1.02 and retest of this support then I might long it.
On I side note after being stopped out on A/J for a small gain I am back long. I heard the earlier spike was a fluke tweet ( I knew I didnt like twitter ). With that I didnt see much to get long just getting back in my original trade as it is about where it was when it dropped. If it was a spoof tweet and that person is reading this well played ahole well played.
That’s interesting, will have to include that in my thought process the next time I look at supply and demand zones or S/R. Do you look to a certain TF when making this consideration? I guess weekly or monthly S/R zones retests would have to be looked at differently.
Looked at the charts this morning gang and to be honest right now there is nothing I like, so it may well be a day off for me.
The only one I would go for right now is a UJ long, the only thing that puts me off is the fact that we are already so close to the big 100.00 resistance figure, but I do think it’s going higher.
That said, that would be just chasing a trade, so I think I’ll duck out and give it a miss today guys.
EDIT: I’m having another “Sanj, not trading today, now way jose” moment. There’s always the short Euro trade :D:D
Morning all. Sorry to miss some good discussion - it was my birthday yesterday, so I took a day off and went for a walk and lunch out with wife & daughter. Even got to sit outside while we ate, as Spring has finally arrived.
Anyway, good morning. HoG. I mean, HoG. Where do I begin?
Shall I start with ‘there’s nothing I like today…the only setup I see would be chasing a trade’ being followed just 20 minutes later by ‘took the trade…probably more of a punt this one…but I do THINK it’s going to go higher’.
Note the word in caps, HoG.
Now repeat after me: ‘trade what you see, not what you think’.
Personally, what I THINK is that you let your broker’s news story the other day persuade you that USD/JPY will crack the 100 mark and move higher. I also think that they didn’t include a tradeable timescale in their article…
What I SEE is that you just took a long trade straight into an area of strong Resistance. An area which you yourself SAW, but which you ignored because of what you THINK.
I’m a technical trader, so I trade the chart I see and figure that although I’ll sometimes be wrong, the balance of probabilities is that overall I’ll be right often enough to cover my wrongs plus some.
So on Monday evening I looked at the Cable Short off the Daily, the one that I, you, Yunny and others were discussing during the day. Like Yunny, I rejected it as I didn’t get the setup I wanted - I’m still monitoring it each evening, as the channel is still solid and any day could give me the low test I want. Today or tomorrow could do it. Monday didn’t, though.
That same evening, I looked at USD/JPY, the Daily chart, the same setup you mentioned yourself on this thread, a Short out of 100.00. I saw that this level was breached once in April 2009, but that the last time Price really traded above there was 2008. I also saw that on both the Weekly and Daily charts Price is pretty overextended away from the Moving Averages. I then saw the Double Top on the Daily, and I saw the clear Daily RSI divergence.
So I took a simple Short, off the break of that day’s low. Price moved with me initially, then in the end I see yesterday formed a low test. It found Support on the Weekly Pivot, bounced off it. But that’s not unusual and does not mean that it will not break today, or tomorrow. Currently today’s PA is forming part of the developing Double Top.
I got a tweet while writing this, from BP’s own Big Pippin’, directing me to his newest blog post - which, among other things, advocates shorting USD/JPY out of the 100 area of Resistance.
I’m by no means always right, and Price could well break the 100 level, give you a profit and stop me out. All I am saying is that currently I see no technical setup. So I’m short until I see one. If Price breaks north of 100 then I will wait for a retest and take it long. But for now I’m trading what I see, not what I think…
Sorry to ramble on, but I thought that this was such a good example of that expression that it merited some analysis.
On a separate point, do you also look at an independent news feed? Reason being that, quite apart from articles rarely being specific enough to give a trading timescale, I’d always want to get my news from someone who has no interest in whether or not I place a trade…
Anyway, I hope you found that at least an interesting insight into how someone else sees this Pair at the moment - for me, one of the best things about this thread is that we all just post what we think and take it from there.
Lol sorry to be a bore, but I have your interests at heart: I don’t know what your percentage risk was, but the simple application of ‘trade what you see, not what you think’ would have saved it on this occasion. Print it out and tape it somewhere prominent! Sorry about the loss, though.
Yes, birthday was fun, thanks - 39, so nothing too threatening to my psychology!
Usually I refuse point blank to do the ironing ST as many years ago I received a ferocious ear bashing from Mrs HoG when I made a “mistake” ironing one of the oldest HoGettes party dresses.
But in this case I’ll make an exception. You have a deal sir !!
I’m just trying to persuade Mrs Templar that if you fold washing and leave it on the Aga it doesn’t need ironing. It’s nonsense, but it might get me out of ironing…
And seriously, that is a good rule that will save anyone from some of the bad trades.
Do you guys ever read Forex Gump’s Piponomics blog? I noticed that its almost guaranteed that whatever his point/case is (today is about the Aussie getting ready to fall off a cliff) the poll at the bottom always agrees or leans in his direction. Crowd psychology? or something else?
I wonder if he made a case about the Australia dollar rallying off the back of recent gold recovery, central bank purchases and the sustained Chinese growth albeit at a mild 7.7%!! would everyone agree again…LETS BUY THE AUSSIE FOLKS!!!
I look in on a few of the blogs, but it’s more for interest: I only ever trade my own analysis, and the polls often don’t have too many respondents. The trouble is, rookie traders get to vote, which is very democratic, but, well… I just wouldn’t trade it directly, personally. I think that people tend to read stuff they agree with regularly, rather than stuff they don’t like, so regular visitors will often vote supportively. I do sometimes get ideas for setups from the blogs, if I have been busy and not scanned a Pair that day. But I always use it as a prompt for my own analysis.
Lol to be honest no, no it isn’t. We have three boys (four, six and eight) and a girl (eight weeks today!), and they’re a hoot and maybe we’re just lucky but no, they’re not hard work. They’re good fun, and the boys are now almost helpful, sometimes. Young Alice is costing us some sleep, but it’s not her fault and she is very cute, which counts for a lot when you’re small.
And in terms of my work, that’s just the trading and managing a bit of property, so I’m around at home a lot, which helps make the childcare easier. One of the beauties of trading is that I can enter a trade, then do the school run, then look in on the charts when I get back. Mrs T is on maternity leave until autumn some time, and then these days she works mostly from home, just doing two days a fortnight in the office in London. So generally the six of us are here, and the line between work/family is quite blurred - my trading desk of choice is the kitchen table! We find it’s all as stressful as you let it be, which in our case is not very. We know we’re lucky, plus I don’t need a lot of sleep. If ever I flag, I just watch an Eric Thomas video!
Is your other half pregnant, then? Is it your first? It’s not too hard, no, as long as you don’t overly value peace and quiet!
Ditto on the blogs, I never say no to different sources of information / knowledge but I like to pick and choose how and what I use it for.
Mate, I am absolutely without a doubt smiling ear to ear and can’t wait for my son to arrive! Yes, this is our first child and he’s due on the 1st of June. I almost regret sometimes that the nine months is coming to an end. Its all gone by so quickly… although maybe not the first trimester!
Four kids sounds like work to me <jokes>, but I am guessing time and experience tends to make the learning curve a little less steep. Sounds like you have it pretty sorted, I am hoping that I can be in the same position one day, using my kitchen bench as a trading desk
N.B. I have a recording of my son’s 144 beats per minute heartbeat on my phone. It’s giving that Eric Thomas vid a run for its money in terms of motivation.
