Actually peterma I do agree with you. I love to trade tops and bottoms. I dont see them as gambling THey just dont happen to often. But like you said the 1 hr works well for that. Especially when the daily is showing signs of a bottom and you find a bottom on the 1hr now the R:R of that trade is through the roof.
Honestly thats been part of my issue this year in trading. Even though I am maintaining my money makers are picking tops (mainly) and bottoms. Well on the Aussie this year we have only had 1 top and I missed it. So thats does not make for a great year so far. Since we are heading to a bottom here soon well lets see how the cards fall good luck to you
An analyst was reviewing a trade wherein the trader was ‘wrong twice in the one day and yet won’
Price opened down, looked as if it had found support, the trader went long, having picked the bottom. Price rose some but then started to fall quickly with some volume and immediately he switched short.
After a few hours price stopped falling and all the appearances of short covering was in the market, the trader did likewise and recognizing the bottom he covered and then went long.
The market quietened, the rally does not hold well, the trader watches price fall back to the low where he is expecting it to react, it goes right thru so he switches short again. - price continues to fall.
After some hours price has fallen considerably, the trader is mindful of the hour and watchful for a change, this he sees before the session close where price starts to rise fast - he exits quickly.
The analyst shows the trader his mistakes: he bottom picked because he saw support, this was only a halting place from where price could go in either direction.
The analyst determines that when price has moved in a direction it naturally retraces 50% to 66%, failing to retrace this amount indicates no bottom or top is going to happen.
Nothing special in this trade analysis you are probably thinking - what I liked about the analysis (which I happened to be reading last night) was who the analyst was - the same trader who said ‘speculation is a business, it must be learned’ and who had a passion for teaching trading to the general public.
Trade date: Dec 21 1908
Author: you guys in the business for a while will know him well.
Hmmm… Aud/Usd - like I said 2 weeks ago - hands up all those who think the only way is up.
I see that FXCM’s retail indicator is telling us that retail is adding to the shorts, cftc are saying the same, the smarts have actually increased their longs - tomorrow’s data will be very telling - watch for a cessation of comms buying or even a decrease in their positions.
I’ll quote David Rodriguez from FXCM “it’s rare I make such brazen forecasts” (he is agreeing re the bottom in the aud today).
If I’m right then imo the target is parity or more.
One interesting aspect was how quickly the Chinese data has been forgotten.
And whatever it is, what evidence leads you to conclude this smarts is accumulating Australian Dollar long positions when an assortment of the largest speculative spot firms involved in trading that pair (& by proxy) have been steadily netting out positions & clearing the orderbook on an evaporating liquidity basis since Monday’s Asian close?
In fact there have been twice daily internal market bulletins since Tuesday by 2 of those firms (the latest european open report update issued by Deutsche this morning) reiterating the depleted liquidity levels & continuing netting off in that pair.
I think you’ll find it’s a descriptive term for so called smart traders - an oft used term by that fruitcake [B]IC[/B]an’t[B]T[/B]rade to flag up supposed market activity by a gaggle of traders who apparently have their fingers on the pulse of every little wiggle & quick step the market decides to make.
Quite who these supposed smart traders are is still to be revealed, but I guess it makes them appear as though they know what or who they’re talking about every time they reference them.
If all these bank & hedge fund traders are supposed to be so smart then how comes typically less than 20% of them actually make any money for the firm on a consistent basis?
And how does it explain all the shredded betting slips on the floors of the various Aussie trading desks from 4 of the top 10 IB’s attempting to short euraud off 1.3450 & 580, gbpaud off 1.5730 & 5870 + long audcad several occasions off .9950 during the month of May?
I wouldn’t exactly call that smart trading would you?
If you’re convinced they’re so smart then how comes they were trying to squeeze the middle of those markets instead of adding positions to core longs & shorts during May?
Everyone is smart some of the time, even in this business.
There used to be saying doing the rounds, I think it went something like; Wednesday’s big shot trader is simply Monday & Tuesday’s dumb ass having a good day.
I was of course referring to the commercials, dubbed ‘smart’ by L Williams and S Briese.
Of course they are ‘smart’ only because of the amount they spend on their ‘advisors’ and the size of their pockets, although Williams argues that their knowledge of their own particlur commodity / business lends to their ‘smartness’.
In any event they do not speculate on fx, nor do they need to make profit from it, their need is to ensure that they do not lose.
Maybe just a little
I’m just glad I’m not one of their clients so far this year judging by the extremely poor quality of even the majority of the private subscription recommendations, never mind the publicly available offerings.
I sincerely hope the next round of half year severance package candidates in a couple weeks don’t consider entering the signals generation business, certainly not if they intend to pay the bills & enjoy 3 square meals a day on the back of the recomms.
