The Trader's Arms - Now Open for Business

:slight_smile: Long here tooā€¦ waiting next candle close to move my SL


This may well sound a little ā€œopt outā€ , but after last Thursdays Shooting star, which I thought may produce a bit of a down move, (at least for a short time) was completely ignored by Fridayā€™s move, Iā€™ve grown a little more cautious about the current market and have refrained from joing ANY action.

Seems to me right now that no matter how good your signals look, in whatever direction, as soon as any Central banker/politician opens his/her mouth price just gallops off in the opposite direction from what the technicals are saying.

I think the market is so volatile right now, driven by the slightest hint of ANY headline, that it may well be best for some-one with my level of experience just to sit in the stalls with a large bucket of popcorn and watch the show for the meantime.

This may well translate into several different languages as an act of gross cowardice, but if you get the toffee popcorn instead of the salted stuff, it ainā€™t such a bad position !!

Arrrgh! You canā€™t all get long. Then the sharks will sniff our stops and go short! :smiley:

LOL !! I donā€™t think it will be too difficult for them to work out Buckscoder. All they have to do is read this thread and theyā€™ll have you all at their mercy !! (this would be a great time to add an evil laugh if babypips did sound effects :46:)

well, I closed the trade at 1.3196 just 8 pips from my targetā€¦ +100 pips trade :slight_smile: Now time to go to bed

Seems this pair is not done yet squeezing shorts

We must be psychically linked, Yunny - I saw that the trade was going to run past my bedtime (!) so placed a TP order at 1.3195 - nice to wake up to a 1% profit!

Could anyone offer a proper definition of ā€˜squeezing shortsā€™, by the way? It is used a lot on this site and is not something other guys I know use. Always learningā€¦

Thank you!

ST

I think itā€™s just stop hunting ST. Pushing the price up to squeeze out all the peple who have went short before the downtrend resumes. Obviously there is a high chance I am wrong there, but thatā€™s what I always took it to mean.

There also is the ā€œoutside of trading defintionā€, but thatā€™s a different thing all together, but has the same effect LOL !!

I know itā€™s still way too early to call, but possible head and shoulders appearing on the 4 Hour???

Closed as well this morning for close to a 100 pips. In a small long now in EUR/CHF at 1.2054 while I wait for a new E/U entry. Having a little roll of the dice that the SNB try a little credibility bolstering sometime soon.

Short squeeze definition from FX Street:

A situation in which a rapid increase in demand coupled with a lack of supply causes a price to rise sharply. It is so-called because in such conditions, short sellers move to cover their positions and prevent (limit) losses. This sudden rush to cover produces additional upward pressure on the price, further aggravating the losses of sellers who have not covered their short positions.

Thank you! And yes, agree on that H&S, plus we have on on the Hourly, too, if you scrunch the chart up a little.

Nice trade. Yes, you could be right about SNB - I have not heard anything official, but they have gone on record as saying that 1.2 is a level that they would defend as often as necessary, and they have deep enough pockets to do it.

Thank you for the definition!

ST

Oh I guess they have something else to target than my pico lots, lol. Anyways, made some nice pips like the others. :slight_smile:

Technically itā€™s overbought on the daily. On the other side we have still a hell lot of large specs in the short trap if I watch cot charts ā€¦ I guess those could be more a target than our trades, lol. :smiley:

Just for speculation: After the FED announced theyā€™ll keep the rates low I guess we could see a slow march til 140ish this year.

Oh well, I see that hs pattern also, but as long as it is not confirmed, it is all speculation. Happy pips everybuddy! Iā€™ll have not much time actually, as Iā€™m traveling soon and a lot and for a couple of months. So please donā€™t be surprised if Iā€™m away from bp for a while ā€¦ :slight_smile:

Safe Journeys Buckscoder. No doubt all the usual suspects will still be here when you return !!

As a matter of interest ( education actually ) what is taken as the confirmation signal of the head and shoulders patteren??

Is it a break of the neckline ??

This is my understanding of a Head and shoulders pattern. I would be grateful if someone could put me right if I have got anything wrong here or misunderstood anything.

IF THE NECKLINE WAS TO BE BROKEN :

Neckline currently around 1-3080. Top of Head at 1-3235. Distance between neckline and top of head = 155 pips. So you take the same distance ( -155 pips as the potential drop ) from neckline down.

So 1-3080 - 155 pips = 1-2925.

Would this be the right way to look at a potential break of the neckline ??

Long @ 1.3044 ā€¦ risking 30 pipsā€¦

Just as a matter of interest yunny, I was wondering how you picked those levels. If you risked 30 pips from 1-3044, your stop would be 1-3014 right?

So Iā€™m looking on my chart and 1-3014 doesnā€™t correspond to any previous S&R levels. So is it a percentage thing? Just curious, if Iā€™m being to nosey feel free to tell me so LOL !!

1.3044 level was the latest strong support in the 1H chart,

The stop is a little bit trickyā€¦ the next support is too far away, meaning too much risk to take.

Price had already traveled more than 170 pips today so I used the daily average range to set it.

Daily average range is about 140 pips so I used 20% (30 pips) and that level happened to be also a previous support (not that this is meaningful but I guess helps a bit :smiley: ).

This is no the usual way I place my stopā€¦the support level looked strong to me but didnā€™t want to take too much risk

Thanks HoG! :slight_smile:

Well yes, the hs pattern confirmation is the sustained break of the neckline. What we can see right now could however lead to confirmation on the other side. If the current top of hs )resistance( breaks. :wink:

trade closed at 1.3140 :slight_smile: 96 pips

Now I am short @ 1.3198 but I am not liking PA too much

Nice Yunny. I didnā€™t get the long - too much hesitation after I took small loss being long yesterday. Short myself now from 1.3202 but Iā€™ve moved stop to BE now that itā€™s +15. Took the same trade earlier for +28 and back in again now. Supposed to be some Greek debt news out pretty soon and I guess some people could conceive 70% haircuts as somehow good news. Sounds pretty horrific to me and existing holders of Portuguese debt will be sweating bricks.

Edit - took what was on offer and out for +20. Leaving it for today. Back for more see-saw action tomorrow.

:smiley: i just did the same I am out for 15 pips profit. Donā€™t want to push my luck this week.

I can not get out of my mind the COT report, that extreme number is just too much to ignore itā€¦ so unless really really bad news out of Europe I can not see a fall for the pair

the only way i look to long term short is if price moves below 1.2980 or goes to the top of the weekly channel ā€¦ around 1.3630