Well played PipBandit. Great to see the charts and the explanation. Keep it coming please.
I like the idea of people showing the charts they are looking at and telling why they took the decision to enter a trade from those charts. I believe ultimately, if you have the time and your comfortable giving your info, it’s the best way to help other newbies get to grips with what they are supposed to thinking of.
Thanks again.
HoG
Looks like we took the same trade more or less so pats on the back all around 
I’ll keep posting up some stuff when I can though I’m a newbie myself. Only have a shade over 2 years experience so take anything I put up or say with a grain of salt!
Feeling greedy today as I’ve been catching the long and short side pretty well this past 2 days so I’m now long from the 61% retracement at 1.2776.
Just throw this in for the sake of discussion.
EUR/CHF is currently trading 1-2098ish. Now, if the Swiss national bank has set the floor at 1-20, in theory themost price could fall is 98 pips.
Now go back to my account balance. If I traded 1 lot, (10 cents per pip) and price fell the maximum 98 pips, the most you could lose would be pennies under $10 right?
So that works out roughly fractionally under 5%. Sot the maximum risk would be 5%, with the idea being that the Swiss National Bank won’t let me lose any more than that. Well surely then it’s not the worse call to go long there. Only big danger being that price drops some and then stagnates for an age.
Or will the SNB NOT support the floor?
As I say, just for discussion, not taking the trade
Not entirely convinced to get back in right now PB, big upper wick on daily and the lower timeframes (4h and 1h) just not filling my head with the word ‘long’ right now.
Having said all that, Ive been the first to admit I’ve found it difficult to get my head into it all this week and you know I genuinely wish you the best of luck with it. Maybe I’m just being a big girl about the whole thing this week.
Dow and S&P futures still pointing slightly lower and I’m never confident going long fiber when these 2 are pointing lower
EDIT: 1-2745 may have me thinking about going long, possibly even 1-2415 stop on the 1-27 mark, but as I say, the best of luck mate 
Yep didn’t work out - was a bit of a punt trying to play the Fib retracements using profits. Was +15 for a bit but it fell back to BE so I’m out. +8.36% for the week so I’ll leave it at that. US holiday on the Monday so think this afternoon could be pretty lacklustre.
On the EUR/CHF I wouldn’t be going near it until price dropped down to about 15-20 pips above the peg if I had to trade it to limit my downside if the peg wasn’t properly defended. Read this on Forexlive earlier:
We’re down near the day’s lows of 1.2095 , and there’s been a lot of rumblings about the peg this morning apparently eminating from the bond markets.
Talk that SNB is set to raise the peg again to 1.3000 from one corner, with the other rumour that it’s going to be withdrawn!.
Either way there are bids to the tune of 500+ million euro’s plonked on the EBS at 1.2090 ahead of barriers reported at 1.2075 and 1.2050 .
Timberrrrr… so much for a lacklustre afternoon! EZ downgrades by S&P coming today it seems. Presume France is going to lose their AAA status. Which means so would the EFSF. Suppose that’ll be enough to keep the downtrend in business after the short term bullish action we had.
Thank god I decided to go up to Asda since nothing was going to happen anyway !! LOL
Just on the off chance, I’ve just left abuy order on EUR/CHF @ 1-2030. May be a bit optimistic, but it’s there now anyway. Obviously put my stop at 1-1999, cos if it does ever dip below the floor I reckon it may run for a bit before, or if, they decide to catch it.
I had another long from yesterday and made some pips.
Anyways, as the “bottom” is broken, could go til 125ish.
Nice weekend all!
No problem. Rants can be good sometimes. It lets us know what to fix and give priority .
would anyone take a quick chance a sell fiber before the close ??? Or is that gambling???
I would be wary of going short fiber weekend personally if u look at daily candles they tell a picture
Me I will wait to see what happens when dust settles
Let me start the week off by asking you all a question. It IS trade realted in the end, so just stay with me a little while please.
Does anybody remember what it was like to be young? When I was 20, pre Mrs HoG and the Hogettes, I would go out on the town on a Friday night. Most weeks I would turn back up in my mother’s house Sunday if I’d behaved, Monday if the weekend had been a bit wild, or Tuesday if it been one of[I] THOSE[/I] weekends.
9 weekends out of 10 I’d have no recolection of what happened on Friday, vaguely remember Saturday and would be trying my best to put Sunday out of my mind all together. Remember those days? Or was that just me? Fair enough !!
Oh how things change so dramatically ! 25 years, 1 wife, 2 kids, 1 dog, 1 mortgage, 2 cars and a lot of grey hair later, d’you want to know how I just spent my weekend?? (in between driving the taxi I mean)
During last week I made a comment to PipBandit along the lines that I wondered what would happen if you knew what the average pip range for each session (London, New York etc etc) and traded according to those figures. Yep, I did !!
Thursday night I put the Daily chart up, going back to 13th September 2010. Why that particular date? Well that would be because on Thursday just gone (12th Jan 2012) the DAILY EUR/USD session opened 10pm GMT at 1-2708 for the bid price. (all of these figures are taken from the bid price) And on 13th September 2010, (roughly 16 months previous) the DAILY session opened 1-2710 (so practically indentical) And in between times, price has reached a high of 1-4946, before falling back to where it started on Thursday just gone.
So here is what I did. I exported the daily chart between these dates to an excel spreadsheet. Then I noted, for every individual trading day, how many pips price went above that day’s open, and then how many pips price went below that day’s open. Then I noted each DAILY range, took the average of how many pips price climbed from each day’s open, took the average of how many pips price fell below each day’s open, and finally noted the average DAILY range from 13th sept 2010 until Thursday 12th Jan 2012. BOY DO I KNOW HOW TO LIVE !! LOL.
Now at first glance, or at first hearing, you may be excused for thinking, “You sad no life git HoG.” And I’d let you away with that. Because 20 years ago, if you’d told me…
Anyway, a couple of interesting little things have came out of that little excercise. I’ll tell you all about my findings in the next day or two, as I’ve not quite finished with it all, but it is my intention to start ANOTHER thread, running alongside this one, which will trade in a demo account, using only what I have found from doing my research over the weekend.
Now this experiment may well crash and burn in world record time. But here is another benefit I have taken from doing this.
I have heard sa lot of full time traders saying they only take trades that meet their criteria. And most of the time, I have wondered, "Well how do you come up with your ‘criteria’ in the first place?"Well, doing this little excercise has given me a specific set of criteria to trade this method. As I say, it may fail miserably, but at least now I’m beginning to understand what is [I]MEANT[/I] by trading to a set method.
I’ll post the rules of this experiment either tomorrow or Tuesday, as 1; I haven’t finished it completely, and 2: I’m busy right now trying to work out what levels I’m watching in my micro account for this weekend.
Funny thing though, about going on about doing all this research this weekend about Fiber, I actually fancy Cable to fall more than Fiber this week. We’ll see what happens.
Anyway, a second little question for you all. Does anybody know a broker that lets you set up a demo account, and set the amount of money you start with? I don’t want to start my little experiment with 50k as I wouldn’t ever have 50k to open an account.
Talk soon, and the best of luck to all in their trading this week.
HoG
You can setup an Oanda demo account and “fund” it with whatever amount you want I think.
I’ll have a look at that PB. Thinking of shorting Cable. Just looking at the chart just now to pick were to get in.
EDIT :
Fancy cable more than Fiber
Left the order to short cable @1-5315 while I’m in bed. Stop will be 1-5360, leaving the target open as I’m looking fo it to go way down, not all today mind you, but looking for it to fall over the course of the week. Nothing going on USA mind you so might be a struggle.
I’m pretty sure mt4 from any broker will allow you to set the amount of $£€ you want to start with.
Cable short triggered just in the last hour. We’ll see what happens. Might be slow if US isn’t trading
Entered short E/U at 1.26765. Was holding out for a little higher but PA didn’t seem to be quite getting there so entered the trade. Stochastic had been flipping over and gave me a hook to enter too. Equities have started to take a dip south so we’ll see where this leads. Around +20 now so stop moved to BE and it’s a free trade for me now. Can’t see 1.26 breaking today so I’ll be exiting before then if we manage to get down around there.
Out for +25 / +0.55%. Seems to be some demand showing up around there so figured I’d take some profit after +30 had turned into +12 before taking a dip again.
pretty much same story cable. Still got original trade open, but could’ve taken prit twice and re-opened at a better price for a short. Pretty much breakeven just now (+1) but still looking for the drop. May well be one of those days price just bobs in a small range.
