Eastenders wow I have not herd that in a while. I remember having to see it on my tv when I live in upper heyford many many moons ago. I figured they would have taken that show off the air by now. Just goes to show you that some poor decisions can last a life time.
Hi folks,
Would someone care to rate or slate my trade idea? Apologies if price levels are not quite accurate as I’m using an iPad as away from my PC.
Looking at a short on the GU.
We had a high at the beginning of the trading year of around 5659, which then traded to a recent low of 5234. Drawing a fib between them shows up a 61.8 level of around 5494. This just so happens to have been an area of resistance on 6 and 10 Jan.
So I plan to place a limit sell order at 5494 with a SL of 5522 and a TP of 5438
The COT report doesn’t show a definitive bias, although there is a net long position, which I am trading against (foolish?)
Thoughts? What else should I be looking for?
I tried to attach a screenshot, but the BabyPips forum app wouldn’t play ball.
Thanks
GG
Sounds ok to me. I will fill you in on a little secret about the cot report because it is starting to get on my nerves seeing this alot lately. Coming into the week the cot report stated big money was positioned long and price has gone up. Thats great but I keep see people showing charts on websites that talk in the report on 15 minute charts. All these charts are crap. The report is released on Friday on every 15 minutes. If looking at the true COT report it will still say big money is positioned long. It will not change till the new report is released tomorrow at market close (pretty much). Sorry for the rant I have just been seeing this pop up everywhere lately and if people are getting cot reports every few minutes I would like to know where this data is coming from. It is most certainly not the CFTC web site where I get my data from.
Thanks for the response. My understanding is that the COT report is weekly also. But I wouldn’t expect it to have changed dramatically without a dramatic price change throughout the week. If last Friday had a COT position of net +ve 47,000 long for the commercial traders, and there hasn’t been a dramatic price change during the week, then I’d expect this weeks COT to be fairly similar? Or am I fundamentally wrong here? Happy to be wrong, it’s all part of learning.
Price is drifting away from my entry anyway. Maybe I should have looking on the daily/weekly chart for a trend line of lower highs.
GG
In the COT report I see is a extreme net short positioning… What do you guys mean by big money?? Commercials or Non-commercials?
any significant upwards move above 1.2880 is an “official” short squeeze…
The commercials are the biggest group.
Ok. But Commercials are not the ones to follow. The important data is Non-commercials, they ride the trend.
Really? I’m not suggesting that ICT in his thread is the panacea of trading, but I kind of get his drift of ‘hanging on the coat tails of the commercials’
Would you suggest that that banks generally lose money?
Smart Money vs Dumb Money… where does the retail (generally losing market) follow? They tend to be in line with the non-commercials.
Hey i’m new at this, tell me more as to why you would follow the non commercials over the commercials?
GG
Well my entry was missed by 0.7 pip, we’ll see tomorrow if that was good or not. G’night folks! (Who are no doubt already in bed as it’s a school night and I have booked the day off tomorrow!)
GG
I do not know how ICT trades, so please just concentrate in the meaning of the COT report.
I never said banks lose money, I do not know what dumb or smart money is for you.
But what I know is who are the participants in the futures market:
[B]Commercial[/B] - Describes an entity involved in the production, processing, or merchandising of a commodity, using futures contracts primarily for hedging
[B]Noncommercial[/B] (Speculators) - Traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions, who use futures market for speculative purposes and meet the reportable requirements set forth by the CFTC
Commercials use the futures markets to hedge, and noncommercials for speculation.
Then who you think will be right about the price most of the time??
I think you need to go back a restudy that part of what ict teaches. They follow non commercials untill a sentiment extreme. Then when they watch for a major reversal. See commercials are always on the wrong side of a trend but always on the right side of a reversal. What ict teaches is Commercails do exactly what they need to do to hedge there risk to run business globally. Non commercials are smart money till a reversal. Dumb money are your speculators. Or maybe I got to go back a relook at it I might now to make sure this is right that I just posted. However I can tell you thats I posted is true untill a reversal. Then commercails are right. Non commercials are wrong. Speculators are in the middle. The problem I see with this if you look at a weekly chart and the cot report you can have up weeks and down weeks with out doing much in positioning. Till a reversal.
Now I have a different way to calculate data from the report. In fact I take my data from an entirely different section of the report. Where I get my data from breaks it down into dealer (market makers), asset managers, Leveraged funds (high dollar traders), Other re portables (not sure what that is to be honest), Non reportables (us on babypips). From there I get an average of long or short. I dont not count non reportables or other reportables (Ifind the accuracy is much higher as the last 2 must flip flop alot during the week). This gives me a percentage of probability on if the week is going to be an up week or down week. It is very accurate. However it does leave alot to be desired. Meaning if this week comming up let say is an up week on EU. The week from what I see will push lower upon opening. Now it will not tell me when or how far price will rally. It could wait till the last few hours of the week and shoot up to close up by one pip. Well now may calculations are spot on but if you went long that week you would be hurting. Now if you can spot the low for that week (wish we all could but it does happen) and get long you will make a killing.
Whether the commercials are net long or short doesn’t matter so much. What does matter is when the commercial contracts are hitting recent record high or low levels. Then we start waiting, watching and thinking about a reversal of the previous major trend.
When the commercials are net long or short we really don’t know what they’re doing… we assume they are hedging their exposure… or do they know something we don’t and they’re front-running the market?
What we do know and can clearly see is when a recent record high or low is hit. Then we can get prepared for a possible reversal of the previous major trend.
The commercial contracts for currency usually trend opposite the market, but if you look at the COT for other types of futures sometime you will see them running together, sometime opposite, so be careful placing too much meaning in the direction, net long or short.
And quit fighting over who is the smart or dumb money and just pay attention to recent record high or low levels. LOL!
Personally - and without wishing to dumb this down too much lol! - I don’t look at the COT report at all, however fashionable it has become recently. I don’t believe in setting out to follow anyone. As a technical trader, I find it much more reliable to read the chart and trade what that is telling me. Record highs and lows, as D-Pip highlights, are one of many ways in which that works, and one does not need a COT report (or anything other than a chart) to spot them. I am a strong advocate of keeping trading simple - second-guessing others’ agendas and intentions - particularly in the current climate - is not, in my opinion, the most efficient, direct way to make money from the Forex market. But I’m a simple soul at heart, and others will disagree!
ST
Just to add my 2 cents into the CoT discussion, I recently downloaded a book written by Kathy Lien, who has worked as an analyst at FXCM , GFT and writes for Investopedia. And in a part of that book she advises against using the CoT report at all. The reasons for which I can’t remember off hand but I will dig the book out and post the section on here tonight when I get home
OK, as promised, here is the extract from the article I mentioned.
Before I add it though, it would be a good idea to add the things I got completely and hopelessly wrong about it. First of all, it wasn’t in a book I downloaded, it was on an article the lovely Miss Kathy Lien wrote on the INVESTOPEDIA web site.
Secondly, supporting yunny and PipBandits side of the discussion, Miss Lien does NOT advocate not looking at the CoT report, as I said earlier. In actual fact she advises paying attention to the NON-COMMERCIAL positioning. Here is an extract from the article:
[B][U][I]Using the COT Report[/I][/U][/B]
[I][B]In using the COT report, commercial positioning is less relevant than noncommercial positioning because the majority of commercial currency trading is done in the spot currency market, so any commercial futures positions are highly unlikely to give an accurate representation of real market positioning. Noncommercial data, on the other hand, is more reliable as it captures traders’ positions in a specific market. There are three primary premises on which to base trading with the COT data:
Flips in market positioning may be accurate trending indicators.
Extreme positioning in the currency futures market has historically been accurate in identifying important market reversals.
Changes in open interest can be used to determine strength of trend.
[/B][/I]
The whole article can be found here:
Have a good weekend to everyone
HoG
HoG,
Thanks for finding and posting the COT info, good article. :19:
Euro and aussie still looking bullish to me.
Agree on Aussie - will be interesting to see how it reacts to 1.0500 on Monday, but unless we get a surprise there it’ll be another week of looking for long positions for me.
EUR/USD looks a little more mixed to me - sort of in No Man’s Land, so personally I’ll just stay out and look for something clearer on another Pair. I’m in a short EUR/GBP, anyway, so that, Aussie and a couple of others should give me plenty to play with next week.
ST
Actually saw one of the major bank analysts on Bloombe…Sorry ST, (ahem) one of the news channels, saying the the Euro will be at $1.20 within a month, $1.15 within 3 months. Obviously we all have to make our own minds up about that.
I do believe, however, that as long as it stays below the 1-3075 ish area, we’re still looking at overall further downside.
But there is a thing, slightly off topic, which has annoyed me this morning.
I tried to turn on my trading platform this morning, to print off some charts, with the idea of taking them to work with me today, to work out the levels I’m watching for what reaction I’m looking for.
But as usual, FXCM won’t allow me access at the weekend to my account, or platform, or charts through their Trading Station. They have the usual, “Site Closed For Maintenance” sign up.
so excuse me for the language, but this really pisses me off about FXCM. Due to my work, Saturday morning is really the only chance I get over the weekend to have a good, leisurely look at the charts. But I can’t get acces to them.
I don’t know if this is standard practice with all brokers, but on just that alone it would be enough to make me change brokers. So I’ve tried hunting for other charts, but since I am unaccustomed to the ones I have found, I don’t have the time to sit and work out how to add the lines and levels I’m looking for.
Apologies to FXCM if there is something I am missing here, and the charts ARE in fact available somewhere over the course of the weekend, but right now, I’m mightily pissed off about it.
But I digress, sorry for the rant chaps, overall I’d say I’m still bearish Euro/Usd.
Looking at a chart on the internet, WHICH IS AVAILABLE AT THE WEEKEND, I’d tend to go along with ST and say it’s pretty much the middle of nowhere right now. Did fancy a short cable around the 1-5495 area earlier in week, but never took it. So flat ain’t a bad place to be right now.
Anyway, better dash folks. The day job is waiting.
HoG
My broker does this every Saturday too. To be fair, that is one of the few days they can turn systems off and they have to work on IT issues sometimes - they have people working weekends for that kind of stuff so although a minor inconvenience, when else would they be able to do it?
Take a screenshot of your charts Friday close or try using Pro Real Time free data or even stockcharts or something on Sat.
Euro is dependent on Greece deal and other euro news so any long term forecasts aren’t worth much in terms of analysis. Anything could change any day/week.