excellent i’ve been looking for this system for a while now and though i’ll propably never trade it al least now i can sate my curiosity.
thanks
Hello,
Well: it’s certainly a very good and robust trading system. More importantly though: the experiment did prove that ANYONE can trade. Or did it??? I would say that ANYONE that can control their emotions and follow a good mechanical (technical) trading system can trade.
Thoughts anyone???
Regards,
Dale.
Hi Dale,
Thanks for the welcome. Delighted you didn’t take offense at my comments–as I didn’t intend for them to be confrontational.
I’d like to address your comment about “trading forex pairs” and other comments in reverse order; I believe forex is ideal for trading a trend system. Perhaps not the specific system[s] taught to the Turtles, but in general. Since forex trades worldwide, 24 hours / 5.5 days per week and rarely gaps open – makes for a great opportunity to trade a trend system.
Trying to avoid volatility is pointless. It is not possible to predict or control volatility, so why try. It is probably best to just simply enter the trade, give it enough room to do what it does (go up and down–in and out of favor or trend) and hopefully you will stumble on a trend. Recognizing no one really knows or is able to predict the future (as far as trading is concerned) forces you to deal with the now/present. Trying to avoid or work out the whipsaws is, I believe, not possible. That being the case, the question remains how do you enter a trade with that fact in mind. How do you build a position knowing that you are likely to be stopped out or whipsawed along the way? That’s is the essence of any good trend system.
And as for drawdowns, it is part of the game. Drawdowns are unavoidable. Trying to sidestep a drawdown is unrealistic. Sure, a fifty percent drawdown is not good, but it is par for the course. You might have a system that says if I get to 50%, I stop trading. But the drawdown is part of the risk you take when deciding to trade anything. I am a big fan of the World Series of Poker show on TV. I see great players who often experience drawdowns on the quest to be champion. The great players don’t focus their attention on drawdowns but on strategy. That doesn’t mean that drawdowns aren’t important, but when you experience a drawdown do you stick to your strategy or fold and go home. My experience teaches me to stick to strategy. If you strategy includes proper money management then it is possible to lose many trades below hitting the monster trend that pays for all of the losses.
As for the Turtle system, many of the original and second generation Turtles have moved on to refine the original system[s] as designed by Richard and William. Make no mistake; variations of the trend systems are in use today by Turtles and other trend traders many of whom are making a killing.
Don’t know that I am a Turtle fan per se, but I do trade the trend. Have been doing so since late '87 early '88. Started trend-trading forex about 11 years ago and have seen my share of drawdowns and huge blockbuster winning trades. I was fortunate enough to short the Euro mid December '09 and didn’t exit the trend until July 2010. Currently I am long the AUD for several months now with tremendous profit.
Finally, as far as tweaking goes, I find it better to do the opposite of common sense. For instance, you might think moving your stop to break-even makes sense, but in my experience I’ve found just the opposite is true. In fact, in building my system I’ve challenged everything I’ve been taught and questioned every decision. I asked myself why move the initial entries up to break even? What does it accomplish? Answer: If before you enter a trade you’ve not made up your mind to accept the probable, possible and acceptable loss of say 2%, then why are you even in the trade. You have to be willing to accept the [2%] loss. Countless times I’ve entered a trade only to see it reverse direction and move below my initial entry, then reverse again and go in the initial direction and make a nice profit. Trying to tell the trade what to do (like moving up your initial stop to break-even) is in my opinion counter to trend trading. If you take anything from the experiment several decades ago it should be that anyone can learn to trade the trend and just as importantly don’t get in the way by trying to control the trend/market. The trend/market is always going to run you over if you get in the way.
Thanks again for the big welcome. Look forward to conversing in the near future. When you get your blog up and running be sure to shoot me a note.
Regards,
Bklynborn
Is anyone here actually profitable with the turtle system?
Good afternoon,
Well: I cannot thank you enough for that geat post. EXTREMELY insightful and I must say that it’s real nice to ‘meet’ somebody that’s been trading for such a long time and ESPECIALLY somebody that’s able to ride the trends for those long periods of time. I honestly believe that’s what this business is about i.e. this nonsense of trying to catch every slight move in the markets is nothing other than a recipe for disaster unless your trading on the floor!!! I know the type(s) of trades you’re talking about well i.e. Sugar for me is a fine example!!! LOL!!!
I guess my reasoning behind my statements regarding the trading of spot forex really has to to with the fact that I ‘wiped out’ QUITE FAMOUSLY about two years ago (sub-prime and then the credit-crunch) (about $500 000 worth of losses in cash, assets, clients money, that type fo thing) (my spectacular ‘wipe out’ has been detailed here somewhere on another thread but it’s ‘old news’ now and I’ve had a hard time ‘moving on’ from it but I have ideeed ‘moved on’ now at least I HOPE so)!!! LOL!!! But the reason I tell you this is because almost all of my losses can be attributed to trading spot forex i.e. although I lost all of that money if I split the trades up then I’m OVERALL ‘up’ on equities and commodities and OVERALL VERY ‘down’ on all my spot forex trades. And what I fail to understand is that given the SAME trading systems (I’ve always been totally committed to using all of J. Welles Wilder Jnr.'s trading systems as detailed in his book ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ and in particular his ‘Swing Index System’) and the SAME trader (of course all my shortcomings back then being accounted for) then how come they do not make money on trading spot forex??? I have my very own ideas on this the MAIN one being this thing of the daily CLOSE i.e. when trading on-exchange instruments (like the Dow for example) you’re 100% guaranteed that everybody is looking at the SAME information and it has a daily OPEN and a daily CLOSE that most traders ‘worth their salt’ monitor and most all of Wilder’s trading systems are designed in such a way that they are heavily weighted in favour of the daily CLOSE. This is just ONE reason why I myself ‘bang on’ about trading equities and commodities versus spot forex (there’s a whole long list but I’ve detailed that here on at least two other threads so there’s no point in ‘re-inventing the wheel’ here now)!!! LOL!!!
There is an entire thread on this very site dedicated to the trading systems in the aformentioned book if you’re interested. Oh and here’s the link to my blog that details the two trading systems that I currently trade with: Technical Trading Systems. Honestly I was hoping to start helping new traders with the systems but nobody seems too interested so I guess I’ll have to wait until they’ve ‘nailed’ their capital to almost zero and THEN hopefully they’ll ‘come around’ and try these trading systems (and as I said I want to add a section on the blog for the Turtle Trading System too along with all of my little ‘tweaks’ although I’d also like to detail these trading systems here too i.e. the only reason for the blog is the fact that some other forum admins have ‘fits’ when you try to post a link on THEIR forums to BabyPips which is what I consider to be my ‘home site’ as it were).
I’ll tell you honestly though (and I’ve noted this on various thread too): the odd thing is that a lot of us had a real hard time getting ANY of these trading systems to make money about two years ago and now, two years later, they just ‘work’. In hindsight: we got SOOO ‘caught up’ in the ‘why’ of the systems and the markets instead of just trading the darn things!!! It was an expensive lesson but a lesson I’ve now learned. This is another reason why I ‘bang on’ about ignoring this daily onslaught of news data i.e. ‘information overload’ and JUST TRADE!!! It’s like ‘trade by number’ (‘paint by number’) and just don’t worry about anything else. As a matter of fact I used to make a joke that if I expained the trading systems to my daughter or son (who where both under age of ten back then) they would have made FORTUNES and why??? Because they would simply have been able to take the signals and TRADE and not ‘second guess’ the trading systems or try to be ‘too clever’!!! And to be honest: I stand by this now!!! Which is also another reason I guess why I DO believe that ANYONE can trade just as long as they are able to keep their emotions ‘in check’ (and better yet to not HAVE any emotions when trading)!!! This is why I found the Turtle Experiment to be so interesting and I have to admit: it gave me the hope that I needed after my ‘wipe out’!!! LOL!!!
Regarding the actual Turtle Trading System(s): I guess you are right about everything ALTHOUGH I’m still experimenting with my moving of stops to BE. I know that at some point somebody actually wrote a ‘tester’ for me and tested this theory out on a few years worth of data. On SOME instruments (pairs) (only spot forex was tested would you believe) this idea of mine increased the profitability of the system(s) quite considerably but on other instruments (pairs) it ‘fell over’ quite badly. And that’s about as far as I got (that was a few months back). I have to admit that even TODAY I ‘battle’ with this thing of not trying to ‘catch’ EVERY last CENT of the trade but I’m ‘getting there’!!! LOL!!! One other thing that I’ve spent a good deal looking at is trading ONLY the channels (as Donchian would have) i.e. using ONLY a 20-period channel i.e. no 10-period channel to TP. I know that the shorter lookback period channel was supposed to remove any directional bias from the system(s) but a lot of times I’ve found that it ‘kicks you out’ WAY too early whereas just using one set of channels you appear to be able to catch these LONG trends without getting stopped out (at profit) too early. But at the moment this is all a ‘work in progress’ for me I guess.
Anyway: thank you again for your valuable input on the subject and PUH-LEASE don’t you go being a stranger now around these parts!!! LOL!!!
Thanks again,
Dale.
Edit:
‘Just for fun’ I thought I’d attach a chart demonstrating my little ‘BE tweak’. One other idea (not detailed on the chart) was to re-enter the trade at your original entry price if stopped out prematurely by my little ‘BE tweak’ but this (I think) becomes self-defeating i.e. the number of potential losses again increases (although not to the same extent as with the original system) but it does at least ensure that you don’t miss a nice long trend trade i.e. my little ‘BE tweak’ is not always quite as ‘clear cut’ as it is on the attached chart.
Also, if memory serves me correctly, somebody pointed out to Dennis that 2% was too much to risk on a trade and I’ve worked it out for myself too i.e. once you are ‘fully loaded’ on a position your risk actually works out to MORE than 2% so if I’m not mistaken at some point they started to risk only 1%.
The same chart is in the WinZip attachment too i.e. I hate it when my charts get resized automatically when posted as attachments and my colors get ‘washed out’!!! LOL!!!
silverdailyturtlesisrsi.zip (91.6 KB)
There is a very short list of original Turtles using the Turtle System today, and more direct to your question, there are probably even fewer people in general trading the exact original Turtle System[s] today. Most of the original Turtles trading presently have morphed the Turtle System into something that fits their trading style and their client’s risk level; and if compared to the original system would probably look very different—while remaining a trend system. The point of the experiment wasn’t to present a system that people should follow. It was to settle a bet between Bill and Richard that anyone can learn a long-term trend system, which if followed, would lead to steady profits. Thirty plus years ago the point was proven, the experiment ended and some of those once novice test subjects have gone on to make millions trading their own trend systems (not necessarily the Turtle System).
Hi Dale,
Thanks for the comments and you must be thanked for the detail and attention you bring with every post.
When I mentioned BE weren’t part of the Turtle System, it was only to point out the details of the TS and it not having a BE exit. Now I trade one of my systems using a BE exit, but it has a BE exit along with a pyramid algorithm that sets the BE only after the third entry. That is by accident or chance. I’ve looked at my trade data and have determined that when my trades fail they usually fail at or before it gets to the third entry. But the BE is necessary in that case. If I have pyramid into a third trade and the trend goes against me my loss could be exponential.
Other systems that I designed don’t use a BE exit as they don’t use a pyramid algorithm. I mention this only to say that I am not against BE per se. I think they have their place. My experience is they are use properly when used for long-term trading. I haven’t done day trading seriously for many years and thus haven’t had a chance to back test if it works within my code short-term.
One of these days I’ll post a story about my little mishap that changed my mind about BE’s.
I agree with you and your continuous chart of silver; a series of six losses of 2% would have netted roughly a 12% loss over six straight losers. That is a problem. The challenge then is what can one do to address that issue. One area that could address the issue is better/different/outside the box money management. You obviously have a vast grasp of the terms and concepts of trading. You are probably one of the few people I’ve chatted with that have read Welles Wilder, let alone know what tremendous work he’s done for traders. I’ve developed a different treatment to address the losing streak issue. But let’s be clear, there is little one can do about losers. You can’t avoid them. You need to build your system to survive the losing streaks so you are around for the current winning streak you are experiencing in silver. I started off by questioning everything. Treated it like I was baking a chocolate cake from scratch. Every single ingredient and decision that went into building my trading strategies gets questioned. If there are better ingredients then the other stuff gets tossed. I’ve asked myself over and over, where did a get the idea to add this thing to be strategy? If the answer doesn’t make sense it gets a thorough testing–bit-by-bit. I have found that the simpler I make the system the better it works. It’s like that chocolate cake made from scratch; milk, eggs, butter, flour and chocolate (unsweetened).
Took a look at your blog. You got it up and running. Some may say that’s the hardest part and I would have to agree. Good luck with that. If I can help let me know. I’ve built one blog and took it down. Currently building one (hopefully new and improved) about trading with specific interests in forex. It won’t be one of the sites you see all over the place selling auto robots that trade forex for you. This site will be dedicated to learning to trade long-term forex. At least that’s the plan.
Finally, I agree with you that a trading system needs to be so simple a child can do it. I love that story in the first chapter of one of Wilder’s books where the father and daughter are discussing indicators. I have recently started to train my teenage son to take over the trading. We’ll see how that goes. He gets it, but at the moment he gets the girls more or rather he’s begun to notice that the girls are noticing him.
Regards,
Bklynborn
Good morning,
And once again thank YOU for your reply to me.
Interestingly enough: you are also one of the very few people that uses the word ‘pyramid’. You’re not by any chance ALSO knowledgable on some of Bill Williams’ stuff (Chaos Theory)??? When I started out those were the first books that I bought i.e. Wilder’s ‘New Concepts’ and all of the Bill Williams books. Williams has some good stuff also but I found I just could not bring myself to follow the systems and always found myself returning to Wilder. To which Wilder book to you refer in your post (I’m not familiar with any book where him and his daugther are having a discussion but that does certainly sound more like a Bill Williams type thing as he and his daughter trade together and she co-wrote that last book with him). Just curious because I’ve been meaning to buy some of Wilder’s other ‘offerings’ but the reviews I’ve read of his other books are not that great to be honest. But yes: Wilder and ‘New Concepts’ are pretty much my ‘anchor’. ‘The old man’ (as I affectionately refer to him) is brilliant in my opinion ALTHOUGH I do also have his ‘Delta Phenomenon’ and I’m not TOO sure that was his best contribution to mechanical or technical trading systems (‘in a nutshell’ that’s the one where the ‘Delta Turning Points’ are based on the phases of the moon and it’s a bit too ‘airy fairy’ for me ALTHOUGH THAT BEING SAID since reading the book and trying to ‘solve Delta’ for the Dow every time there is a NEW moon you can be sure that within a day or two something INDEED DOES happen or change with the Dow and to be honest it’s uncanny but it’s just not something that I would be able to trade given it’s IN-exactness).
Speaking of Wilder here is a quote that ‘summed me up’ during my first years:
[I]“I know traders who can never seem to hang on and follow a good system because of a compulsive need for action. I know other trader who have a greater need to be right most of the time than they have a need for the money they can make”.[/I]
The above I believe had a LOT to do with MY ‘spectacular wipeout’ i.e. his trading systems were SCREAMING for me to do ONE thing and the analysts were saying the opposite and me being ‘caught up in the hype’ of the whole sub-prime and credit-crunch stuff ‘second guessed’ the systems and, well, ‘the rest is history’ as they say!!! LOL!!! Alright: at the time I also could not SPELL ‘risk management’ let alone implement it!!! LOL!!! ‘You live and learn’ not so (at the time I thought that this 2% rule was for people who were ‘scared’ and didn’t REALLY want to make REAL money)??? How misinformed was THAT!!! LOL!!! Unfortuanately with me it always seems to be ‘the hard way’ (‘living and learning’ I mean)!!! LOL!!!
Anyway: somehow or another I’m turning this into a ‘Wilder thread’ (AGAIN)!!! LOL!!!
I have to admit that this BE ‘thing’ comes from my working with and testing various systems by Boris Shchlossberg and Kathy Lien and I must also say that only in the past few months have I seen that more and more (professional???) traders seem to be saying the BE is better than LOSING money. Theoretically that makes sense but, of course, as we’re discussing here, it depends on the trading system I guess i.e. with the Turtle’s it could be counterproductive although I’m trying to prove this EITHER way!!! LOL!!!
Well when YOUR blog is ‘up and running’ make sure to give everyone the link to that too i.e. I’m really interested to see the ‘cakes that you’re baking’!!! LOL!!!
I’ve got all the ‘Turtle books’ (well the one’s that I know of anyway) and I see the changes that have been made to the original system by some (both Covel and Faith) but again I’m not convinced of their merits e.g. one of them (I’m not sure which one now) says to use some or the other long EMA and only trade the system if / when price is above or below this EMA but from my initial ‘investigations’ I only saw this keeping you out of some FANTASTIC trades, getting you ‘in’ REAL late, and incurring many losses along the way STILL due to false breakouts so WHO knows!!! I’ve also done some work with two trading systems called ‘Turtle Soup’ and ‘Turtle Soup Plus One’ by Laurence Connors and Linda Bradford Raschke. The basic premise is to capitalise on the false breakouts that ‘plauged’ (their words) the Turtle’s but for some or the other reason I (again) just cannot bring myself to trade these systems constantly (or consistently)!!! LOL!!!
Regarding MY blog: I’m not sure that’s the best site to be hosting it i.e. I’ve noticed that people can only leave comments if they register or have a Google account and I think this is why I don’t get an comments there i.e. people are ‘funny’ and I know that I myself LOATHE having to register or create accounts just to leave a comment on a site (I’m always of the opinion that people are trying to get my e-mail address to ‘spam’ me and I get enough junk mail on an HOURLY basis to ‘last a lifetime’).
Anyway: have a good day and it’d be great to continue these discussions.
Regards,
Dale.
Hello again,
Further to my last post to you (above) I had another thought (which I’m actually surpirsed took me so long to ‘piece together’). Wilder’s ADX (ADXR) was designed for this VERY reason i.e. to detect the prescence or abscence of a trend and it’s strength. To this end I’ve posted a chart showing what I mean. Once again though: it’s not ‘infallible’ (but then what is)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
silveradx.zip (63.2 KB)
Hmmm, interesting, thanks.
Here’s a question, why don’t newbies trade turtles then?
Lol.
Hello,
And here’s the answer!!! LOL!!! From a psychological aspect it’s a VERY difficult system to trade. How many (new) traders do YOU know who will be able to place only a few trades PER MONTH and then hold onto those trades for another few months without touching them or getting impatient??? And then of course there’s the very REAL possibility that a trade could very well end up in a loss after ‘nursing’ the trade for a few months. When that happens: more often that not the (new) trader will ‘drop’ the system and find something with more ‘action’. And then there is the drawdown too that most (new) traders will NOT be able to ‘handle’ psychologically (I forget the exact figures but I think that the Turtle statistics show somewhere in the region of 60% drawdown and there could be a veritable ‘slew’ of consecutive losses which my Silver charts show pretty clearly).
Answer your question??? LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hi Quertymyfx,
I am really enjoying this discussion. Your question is great and if you don’t mind my putting in 2 cents worth, I’ll try to answer. From my viewpoint maybe the question should be “Should one trade the Turtle System[s]?” I don’t think so. The Turtle system was an experiment only. Very few of the students from that experiment are trading that exact system today. Not because it doesn’t work, but because they have found a way to improve the areas of concern for that system.
What does it suggest to you (if what I am saying is correct) if most of the original Turtles are not currently trading the original system. It may suggest they found a way to improve on the system. A few of the original Turtles started their own CTA-trading firms shortly after the experiment ended in ’87. They were still under non-disclosure agreements in ’87 that prohibited, among other things, talking with anyone about the Turtle system outside of the experiment. They would have had to discuss the inner working of the original system with a developer in order to recreate the system on their own. That would have been a violation of the NDA and Richard would have dealt swiftly with any violations. What they learned from trading the systems gave them tremendous insight into the inner workings of how to build a system. They then built their own systems based on their client’s or their own risk tolerances. The common denominator to the Turtle system would be “it is a trend system”.
So perhaps we shouldn’t try to trade the “Turtle” system[s]. Maybe we could trade a turtle-like-system, one that uses a trend. I don’t now and never have traded the Turtle system. I trade a trend system; one that I developed on my own. A system that I designed based off of my trading experience and my experience with drawdowns and losses.
I think the fact that the Turtle systems were a secret for many years was not an accident. Chances are the designer of the system never wanted anyone to know the mechanics of the system. It would be better to build your own system that you’ve designed and have complete confidence in. Once you’ve done this hardest of things, you are no longer looking outside for answers from a guru. You are relying on your experience and battle tested system that you’ve created for guidance. When the system loses a trade or has a long losing streak, the system you’ve designed and have complete confidence in will in the long run prevail. The purpose of the Turtle system therefore was to demonstrate clearly the success of following a long-term trend. One could use this example, now that we have the details of the mechanics as a guide, to build your own system. Most people won’t follow a system, as it requires strict discipline and confidence. The average person out there is looking for shortcuts and quick instructions. What I call the “CliffsNotes” to trading. It will not fly. You have to develop and thoroughly test what you, deep in your heart, believe works. It’s the only way I now that works.
Regards,
Bklynborn
Now that’s hitting the nail on the head. Wilder’s ADX is an incredible indicator if what you’re trying to do is simply detect a possible start of a trend. Again nothing is perfect, but thank you Mr. Wilder for this phenomenal indicator.
What the average user of this indicator is looking for with the ADX is a little help with filtering out the noise. More than that is unrealistic and voodoo.
The ADX is perfect for trend systems, but do you see this indicator in any of the Turtle systems? That’s what I mean when I say some of the original turtles found ways to improve on the original systems.
Back to the Turtle system: How many indicators are used in their systems? Exactly two if my memory is correct. A moving average and the ATR (thanks again Mr. Wilder for the ATR). And the ATR is used purely for position sizing. What if you try using just the ADX and a SMA properly configured (emphasis on properly configured)? Less is more! Make it so that a child could glance at the chart for 3 seconds and tell you in what direction a possible trend is forming. Reduce your indicators to two only. If what you are trying to do is find the start of a possible trend, start cutting from your chart what you cannot explain and have clearly understood by a child of 9, in two sentences or less. I showed the chart to my 16 year old he frowned and rolled his eyes. That’s my simple litmus test. Make chocolate cake from scratch. I’ll bring a jug of milk and some forks.
Regards,
Bklynborn
Now that’s hitting the nail on the head. Wilder’s ADX is an incredible indicator if what you’re trying to do is simply detect a possible start of a trend. Again nothing is perfect, but thank you Mr. Wilder for this phenomenal indicator.
What the most informed user of this indicator is looking for from the ADX is a little help with filtering out the noise. More than that is unrealistic and voodoo.
The ADX is perfect for trend systems, but do you see this indicator in any of the Turtle systems? That’s what I mean when I say some of the original turtles found ways to improve on the original systems. How many indicators are used in the Turtle systems? Exactly two if my memory is correct. A simple moving average and the ATR (thanks again Mr. Wilder for the ATR). And the ATR is used purely for position sizing, not for entry signals. What if you try using just the ADX and a SMA or two, properly configured (emphasis on properly configured)? While you’re at it, make it so that a child could glance at the chart for 3 seconds and tell you in what direction a possible trend is forming. Reduce your indicators to two only.
If what you are trying to do is find the start of a possible trend, start cutting from your chart what you cannot explain and have clearly understood by a child of 9, in two sentences or less. I asked my son to stop his facebook exploration to answer my short question on trend analysis of your chart. He frowned and rolled his eyes. That’s my simple litmus test. Make chocolate cake from scratch. I’ll bring a jug of milk and some forks. Less is more!
Regards,
Bklynborn
Hi Dale,
The story of the father and daughter is in the first chapter of one of Mr. Wilder’s books. It is either his Delta book or the New Concepts book, I can’t remember as all of my Wilder books are loaned out to other traders I know. Possibly never to be seen again. It is a must read for anyone starting out or for that matter in the middle of or ending up with trading.
Regards,
Bklynborn
Hi Dale,
In response to Bill Williams: I have read one of his books a number of years ago (I usually read something twice if I find it interesting–didn’t for this book) and found it much like most of the material out there–unnecessarily too complicated to be followed and useful. Think the one I own is New Dimensions but I can’t seem to find it on my bookshelf at the moment.
One of my goals is to keep it simple. While fractal theory is possibly valid, it isn’t what I would rely on to make a trading decision within a system. It is just too subjective.
Regards,
Bklynborn
Good evening,
Well: you certainly DO know a lot of ‘Wilder’!!! LOL!!! That’s GREAT!!!
It has always amazed me how after ALL this time: RSI, ADX, and ATR are, and will for always be, ‘classic’. Hell: even some of the analysts on BLOOMBERG use them in their analysis (although that being said there is a lot of MISINFORMATION floating around the Internet as to their uses and their little ‘nuances’ are rarely mentioned and only somebody that’s ‘done the Wilder legwork’ will know these things)!!! LOL!!!
Bill Williams’ ‘New Trading Dimensions’ is the best of the three books in my opinion (for what that’s worth anyway) i.e. the last one was nothing more than a bit of a ‘stripped down re-hash’ of the the other two books although the idea was to make the system a ‘tad’ simpler to trade and get you ‘in’ a bit earlier is all. As I said: by the time the third book had come out I’d lost interest although that being said: I do know somebody else that did extensive backtesting (by PAPER TRADING) the system and the results were quite good if I recall. It just never ‘grabbed’ me anymore at that stage. That being said: his ‘Balance Line Trades’ (the ‘Alligator’s Jaw’ EMA) definitely has a lot of merit I believe. I’ve just ‘moved on’ I guess.
But I really like the way that you ‘think’ I have to say. ‘Simpler’ is better by far and there’s no denying that at all. As a matter of fact: I’m a huge Larry Williams fan (mainly because he can actually MAKE money trading the S&P 500) and one of his systems is the most simple thing of all i.e. a single 26-period EMA (or was it a 28-period EMA i.e. I forget now) but SIMPLE and profitable (if you can handle the whipsaws of course)!!! LOL!!! That’s another very clever man in my opinion.
As I noted: I’ve seen one or two of the ‘tweaks’ BY the Turtle’s themselves and I cannot say that I was impressed. If I’m not mistaken one of them even ‘proved’ that a simple EMA crossover system was more profitable over time than the Turtle system (WITH his OWN ‘tweaks’ applied) itself. I guess it’s REALLY up to everyone to ‘choose their own poison’ is it not. I just like the ‘channels’ I guess!!! LOL!!!
And it’s also pretty much amazed me how DIFFERENT all of these systems are BUT how SIMILAR they actually are at the same time!!! I’ve noted this example before: Williams’ ‘fractals’ are nothing more (or nothing less) than Wilder’s High Swing Points and Low Swing Points (or should I say that they both occur at pretty much the same places in a chart). I had other examples of this type of thing but they don’t come to mind right now but suffice to say there are only SO many ways you can ‘skin a cat’ I guess!!! LOL!!!
But yeh: this is a GOOD thread and I’m going to try to do some work in the coming days on ‘turbocharging’ Donchian!!! LOL!!!
Thanks again for the insightful posts.
Regards,
Dale.