moon phases? astronomy? as in Wilder’s delta phenomena? Surely not that?
In that case I’m going to base my next strat on loop quantum gravity and the lambda CDM model, I’ll be a billionaire in no time.
No, it has nothing do with with astronomy or tidal phases or anything of that sort.
well you said Hellogoodbye came close so if not lunar phases then some other kind of cycles ?
Yea, I guess you could consider it a cycle. But it is something closer to the forex market than… lunar calendars.
Tidal calendars? They’re closer than planets lol… I’m too young to be serious.
Well, both of them refer to the moon…
So no.
Alrighty then!!! Another thread losing it’s intended direction I see!!! LOL!!!
NOT being one to ‘keep secrets’ (nudge, nidge, wink, wink):
My only ‘tweak’ to the Turtles’ system is this:
You place your entry stop orders as per the system. Once in a trade though: once price CLOSES above your entry point (for a long trade and visa versa for a short trade) you then move your stop to your entry price (which of course, less any commissions and / or spread, would be your BE price i.e. if stopped out you’ll always lose the commissions and / or spread unfortuanately). That’s it. If the trade continues to move in your favour you then simply use the value of the shorter channel for your TP as per the system. If stopped out prematurely you can place an order to re-enter at the original price and so on and so forth. In addition: you COULD elect to trade ONLY long or ONLY short as this will also eliminate many whipsaws.
Why the ‘tweak’??? The greatest (and possibly only) drawback to the system is the fact that if you’re normally more wrong on a trade than right unfortunately. I work on the premise that if I’m wrong I want ‘out’ as soon as possible and preferably at BE. If that results in my missing a trade because I’ve been prematurely stopped out then so be it. There are WAY too many signals and WAY too many instruments available for trading to worry about signals that missed or to worry about being stopped out prematurely (again, hopefully, at BE). Remember this: it’s NOT what you MAKE in this business it’s what you DON’T LOSE that will make you a successful trader!!!
It’s interesting to note that there are one or two other systems floating around which are CONTRA Turtle’s. Two which I know of are ‘Turtle Soup’ and ‘Turtle Soup Plus One’. These two systems trade the bounces off of the channels. I’ve attempted to somehow capitalise on both but it can become a ‘mind f*ck’ because essentially you’re trading two systems that are diametrically opposed to each other and they unfortuanately cannot BOTH be right!!!
So yeh: have fun and make money is all.
And BY THE WAY and for what it’s worth: I’d never TRADE the idea but I can tell you that I have noticed a DEFINITE pattern / correlation between the movements of the Dow and ‘New Moon’. I kid you not!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Dale sounds like spread could be a huge expense. Sounds kind of like an idea I analyzed once way back when. The spread ate up most of the profits in what was already a nearly break even system.
Moon phases. I know someone who works as an EMT (emergency medical) also someone who works the 911 call center. They swear there are more calls during a new moon. As a science minded person I don’t see how it’s possible but maybe it effects psychology and therefore market behavior somehow?
Barb: Cycles? well I’ve noticed and made a post here ages ago, that price does appear to do certain things at specific times of day… almost predictable. I say almost… I’ve traded my predictions some and had some wins but never stuck with it. Didn’t think it was specific enough to be a trade signal.
Anyway, I’ll give up on guessing your system as I have my own edge now, fortunately there’s more than one edge out there 
Turtles: ok I’ll shut up now and turn it back over to you
Hello again ‘old’ friend.
Well: you COULD move your stop to BE PLUS the spread if you REALLY wanted to of course. You could also NOT re-enter if stopped out and simply wait for another ‘breach’ of the channels of course. As I said (and as is noted just about everywhere on the Internet): the Turtle’s were ‘plagued’ (to quote) by false breakouts. MY ‘method’ eliminates MANY of them but, of course, may also result in you missing LONG trends which is a pity of course. But I’ve learned the very hard way with 100% of all the systems I’ve tried over these years: almost ALWAYS the trades move into a NICE profit only to get stopped out for a 2% loss a few days (periods) later. I just got sick of it is all.
But hey: there’s enough ‘meat’ in this thread on the system for others to dissect it and maybe they come up with some new ideas on a very old tried (and dare I say ‘tested’) trading system / methodology. Quite a few months ago I had a ‘coding and mathematical genius’ write a piece of software to test my ideas on the system and the results were ‘pretty darn good’. BUT AGAIN a warning: the test results were affected GREATLY by the instrument being traded i.e. on some pairs the overall result was a total loss while on others the profits ‘took off’. I don’t have those results anymore (well: they’re on a backup SOMEWHERE in this ‘sty’ that I call an office i.e. things tend to go ‘awry’ in these parts over the weekends)!!! Maybe I’ll try ‘dig them out’ sometime.
MY ‘method’ REALLY is based on the idea that if a good strong trend starts (a good ‘HARD’ breakout) then price does not retrace i.e. it just keeps going. When it ‘lounges around’ the channels then there’s normally a better than average chance that it’s going to reverse on you and hit your 2 x ATR(20) stop. So MY ‘method’ is not ‘rocket science’ let’s face it!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Would be interesting to see that data Dale.
In common with some of the ‘Turtles’ who could not stick to the rules :o, I try and antissapate the Zig Zag or waves within the overall trend i.e. if trading the daily perhaps looking to the 4h for highs and lows of PA. For example looking to EU right now, one might have taken a long off the daily TF at 1.2642 and be riding PA up. But within that daily up will on the 4h be several PA retraces. So one might for example consider a temporary or permanent exit at 1.2833. Perhaps even a small counter trade for 60 pips?
Interesting, I just entered EU short at 1.2827 on the daily. Target in the neighborhood of about 80ish pips.
Resistance off the daily on EU is around 1.285 by my reckoning Mike… well see!
Hey Matt,
You’re quite right. A ‘System 1’ signal was supposed to be ignored if the previous trade was a profitable one. Try as I might though: I cannot see the merit of this (and apparantely I’m not alone i.e. when I researched this this system ‘ad infinitum’ there were many that tended to agree. That doesn’t mean we’re RIGHT though i.e. just impatient)!!! LOL!!! Re-entering at the same entry price if stopped out is not for the feinthearted and does mean that you pretty much have to sit and watch the charts all day every day. I guess a way around this would be to place a re-entry stop order if and ONLY if (on the daily charts anyway) price CLOSED below your initial entry price. But to be honest: if stopped out either at BE or at 2 x ATR(20) you’re probably better off (at least from a sanity point of view) to just miss the trade and look for another. All of this being said though: SOME of the Turtle’s used what they called the ‘Whipsaw Stop’ method (something like that i.e. it’s in the document that I attached). Essentially: your initial stop was placed at 0.5 x ATR(20) instead of 2 x ATR(20) and they were quite at liberty to re-enter if stopped out (although there is no mention as to HOW to re-enter nor is there mention of how many TIMES to re-enter before you’re ready to ‘pull your hair out’)!!! LOL!!!
No need to buy the book though!!! That document that I attached IS ‘the system’ and appears in Faith’s book ‘word for word’. As a matter of fact: in my opinion the book gets WAY too carried away with ‘tweaks’ and stuff and that just put me off and served to confuse.
R_Carter: I will seriously look for that info (it’s just Excel data really and was tested on Deltastock’s data). BUT I’ll tell ya something ELSE for nothing: the test results varied greatly (if memory serves me correctly) between brokers which was quite worrying (and I’m talking about there being major differences between two different MT4 brokers who just happened to be in different timezones which is ONE of the reasons that I like to trade things that have a DAILY OPEN AND CLOSE)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
dpaterso - System 1 is just way too wavy in my opinion, never liked jumping on anything. As I said before I traded it well in equities, I used System 2 exclusively. Even Faith himself said he put 100% of his capital trading System 2, which meant less trades and in turn less whipsaws.
When I first started reading about the Turtles in my early days, I wasn’t disciplined as a trader yet, and started moving my SL to break even. It was horrible for me, it didn’t allow my winners to run enough to offset my losers that didn’t go to BE. I learned to be disciplined and really follow the system as stated and I found it to work even in equities. The secret is finding a specific set of stocks to trade.
Hello,
That’s interesting. When did you move your stop to BE i.e. what method did you use (just curious).
One thing though (for general discussion): isn’t Curtis one of the Turtle’s that ‘blew up’ eventually??? I’m not sure but I seem to remember reading about this somewhere (and I also seem to remember HIM saying that it was somebody trying to discredit him)??? Not sure. Just wondering if anybody else had heard of this little ‘tidbit’.
I agree with you about the different systems. The problem is, as you not, selecting the right instruments. And it takes LOADS of ‘intestinal fortitude’ to watch a price rocket up and it’s nowhere NEAR the 55-day channel!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Yes, there appears to be animosity between Curtis Faith and Michael Covel who’s been known to stick the boot in on a few occassions. Covel really is completely clueless, but I suppose he’s competing for a slice of the pie and believes all fair in love and war.
IIRC Curtis has a CTA business (Acceleration Capital ) that indeed ceased trading after a run of poor (or more accurately appalling) performance. There’s copies of findings of an investigation by regulatory bodies that make quite amusing reading, the usual stuff everyone passing the blame, noone taking responsibility etc, employees stealing client funds etc, the operation was appallingly managed, a textbook example of how not to do it !
I wont say more because I happen to think that despite his problems Curtis Faith’s material actually has merit. Given the choice between a book written by a trader who actually experienced playing the game, and one written by a vitamin salesman, I know which I’d choose 
This is too funny:
Given the choice between a book written by a trader who actually experienced playing the game, and one written by a vitamin salesman, I know which I’d choose
ROFLOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
This was both poignant and memorable.
A++ would read again
Recently decided to join this forum after watching on the sidelines for a few years. What prompted me to finally join is Dale’s post describing the Turtle System. I do not want to piss off Dale or anyone else, but I just had to address a few comments that in my humble opinion aren’t factual.
I have followed the Turtle System for years and spoken directly with original and second-generation turtles. Some of what Dale describes as the Turtle System isn’t in the system. For instance, there is nothing in the original system instructing a practitioner to “then move your stop to your entry price”. Turtles didn’t place initial stops in this way. The original system, as presented by Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, didn’t have a bias long or short–each were traded the same. Their goal was never to try to eliminate whipsaws. They were willing to be whipsawed if that is what the price dictated. One of the big things that Turtle Traders were taught was “TP” wasn’t in the vocabulary of a Turtle Trader. It didn’t / doesn’t exist. Target Price is a big non-issue for Turtle Traders in that they don’t have TPs.
Again, I do not want to seem like an ass and I know this is a newbie forum, but the Turtle System is still a very real and important subject. The system remains a viable and profitable system for thousands of traders around the world.
Whoa!!! LOL!!!
First: WELCOME bklynborn!!! A BIG welcome (ESPECIALLY if your a ‘Turtle Fan’)!!! LOL!!!
You are 100% correct. The idea of moving your stop to your entry price is a ‘tweak’ of mine and is not part of the original system(s).
But seeing as you obviously know the system very well: do you care to share some more of your thoughts and experiences here??? It really would be much appreciated. It is one of the trading systems that I wish to include on my ‘new’ blog (Technical Trading Systems) when I finally get around to it (or start a new thread or continue this one eventually). I too believe that it’s an ‘A++’ trading system but it does have it’s drawbacks (drawdowns???)!!! LOL!!! (No pun intended)!!! LOL!!!
I have spent many an hour trying to ‘iron out’ one or two ‘quirks’ of the system(s) (mainly, of course, to try to eliminate whipsaws and reduce potential drawdowns) with little success I might add (and I guess this is EXACTLY what Dennis and company warned AGAINST i.e. JUST TRADE the system is all)!!!
But once again: welcome and any input or expertise would be appreciated.
One thing that I DO believe: it does not ‘lend itself well’ to trading forex pairs (then again: what system DOES and no offense to anyone)!!! LOL!!! Commodities: 100%!!! (Just take a look at Sugar with System 1 or System 2 right now)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.