Interesting.
I like to look at at pennents and the like as consolidations and like to find the half way line and see which side price is spending most of it’s time.
Wally
Looking at the USDX in conjunction with Cable you could justify a move to the downside in foreign currencies, followed by the potential for an up move. The lows on Cable in here at the 50% level are way too clean, and the Price Action last week had a bearish bias. Given that we have some wiggle room for the USDX to the upside based on real and implied resistance levels, and seasonal tendencies and cycle analysis suggesting lower prices into the end of the quarter for foreign currencies, my bias would be short for the start of the week, followed by caution. In terms of COT, Fiber is still lagging Cable when it comes to the unwinding of long Commercial positions, and this may limit price movements to the down side.
Regards
Hello everybody … new week ahead of us.
I like the post. I was looking at the USDX and noticed that it is approaching the 162% ext level. The 162% ext level lines up real nice with the .886 retracement level of the bearish swing that preceded this recent up swing, and may act as resistance for the USDX at the 162% ext level. Using the SMT on the daily US DX vs EUR/USD you can see that that USDX is making higher highs and the fiber is not making lower lows.
There is also hidden divergence on the fiber daily, and not pictured is the 20 period William % R which is showing oversold conditions.
The only thing that scares me is that bearish railroad tracks on the weekly seen couple weeks ago - thanks again wally for pointing that out
BTW who is your broker? I love that you can chart the USDX like that. I have to use the dailyfx charts to chart the dollar, and while they are nice for the SMT, they are not so user friendly for applying fibs, s/r levels, etc.
It is the same demo platform that Michael used in his videos, and the one everyone talks about in the threads. I won’t mention it by name because I already have a warning for advertising (having Manta’s MF on a screenshot…funny how others have gotten away with that!) and I don’t want to risk losing another of my limited lives. Overly cautious maybe, but until we have some consistency from the moderators…
Regards
Speaking about Fibre lagging Cable, I have noticed (though I’m not sure if my readings on my chart are correct) that the
Fibre is way below the Weekly S3 (pivot) level, while the Cable is sitting just on S2.
Does everybody else see the same thing? Unfortunately I don’t have my charts in front of me, so I can’t say what the
numbers are.
I suppose that would be another reason to be cautious with our shorts.
That may be so for last week, but we are currently moving below MS1 on both Cable and Fiber for this week’s pivots.
Ok thanks.
Reminder:
[B]If you’re in the U.S. or Canada,[/B] starting tonight, and continuing for 2 weeks:
• Zurich will open at 3am EDT (not at 2am, as we are accustomed to)
• London will open at 4am EDT (not at 3am)
• The LO Kill Zone will be 3am-5am EDT (instead of 2am-4am)
• London will close at 1pm EDT (not at 12pm), and
• The LC Kill Zone will be 12pm-2pm EDT (instead of 11am-1pm).
(The New York Open, and the NYO Kill Zone, will not change in your time zone.)
If you’re in the U.S. or Canada, but you are not in the Eastern Time Zone, do the math.
[B]If you’re in the U.K., Ireland, or Portugal,[/B] starting today (Monday), and continuing for 2 weeks:
• New York will open at 12pm GMT (not at 1pm), and
• The NYO Kill Zone will be 11am-1pm GMT (instead of 12pm-2pm)
(The London Open, LO Kill Zone, London Close, and the LC Kill Zone, will not change in your time zone.)
[B]If you’re in central Europe,[/B] starting today (Monday), and continuing for 2 weeks:
• New York will open at 1pm CET (not at 2pm), and
• The NYO Kill Zone will be 12pm-2pm CET (instead of 1pm-3pm)
(The London Open, LO Kill Zone, London Close, and the LC Kill Zone, will not change in your time zone.)
[B]If you’re in eastern Europe,[/B] starting today (Monday), and continuing for 2 weeks:
• New York will open at 2pm EET (not at 3pm), and
• The NYO Kill Zone will be 1pm-3pm EET (instead of 2pm-4pm)
(The London Open, LO Kill Zone, London Close, and the LC Kill Zone, will not change in your time zone.)
[B]If you’re in a location not listed above[/B] (e.g., New Zealand, Australia, Japan, UAE, Central and South America, etc.), the New York Open and the NYO Kill Zone will occur [B]1 hour earlier than before[/B] in your time zone.
The London Open, LO Kill Zone, London Close, and the LC Kill Zone, will not change in your time zone.
Consult this Table and/or this Table for help, if needed.
After this 2-week period, Europe and the U.K. will join the U.S. and Canada on Daylight Saving Time, and we will be back to “normal” relationships: that is, London will once again be 5 hours ahead of New York, and Zurich will once again be 6 hours ahead of New York.
Haha! I thought so too…ah well, 20 pips profit is better than nothing at all 
and don’t forget those few months where he was down $50K in month 1, another $50K in the 2nd month, and I think he might have even been down a large sum in the 3rd month, which put his life in a tailspin for some time. When he righted his ship again, he began practicing MM.
Soooooo, i’ve entered long today on cable 
few reasons why:
- The purple line below is the resistance which Clint drew before.
- The green line is the open of the week
- It went quite in sync with the asian range high and the fib 50% lvl. Well, it did retrace to sweet spot OTE but i didn’t think it will go that far. I guess thats one reason of my losing trades.
- Stochastics were showing (while i was watching that 70lvl which is green line) supper oversold with hidden Bull Div. Thats what i thought afterall.
- And it was unwilling to go lower.
While the fiber did work out, the cable tanked down. Waiting for Feedback. Particularly from AK, alishijo, clint, LTPP, or any old timer. Looking to improve harder… Because it always seem i’m missing something which ends up me being at the wrong side of the trade, or at the wrong time.
Excuse my newbness but if you can be that emotional over $4000, maybe you should start at a smaller amount and grow it to where you aren’t so emotional over it. I’m hoping not to but fully expecting to lose my initial startup cost. And that cost wont hurt me financially thus it wont scare me to lose any piece of it. Just my two cents if that even applies here.
EJ
Trade idea for tommorow. SHORT
- Fib from the 2012.01.13 to 2012.02.24 retracement 0.382
- Previous asian lows.
- A clusster short term of support, resistance.
- Central pivot
- Fib from 2012.03.08 to 2012.03.12 retracement 0.382
- A small SMT between usdx and fiber.
My fear that it will try to take out my mentioned cluster of support and resistance, reach 80lvl and then tank down. One way or another - feedback?
For some reason, someone wanted the the EURGBP cross to go up so they sank the cable while propping up the fiber. Now don’t ask me why lol. I myself had a long bias for today and short for the week, although I didn’t wake up for LO so didn’t trade today.
I thought you were talking about letting it all hang out and going for broke, which I hope you don’t do. If you’re confident in the set up, and your bias, there’s no reason not to throw down 2%. It seems like you’ve been pretty steady lately and I wouldn’t want to see you lose any momentum.
I’m just watching my charts and wanted to share some thoughts. What i see right now is this:
Bullish divergence on the daily cable chart. Also it looks like today will be an outside day with down close (if sunday is a separate day).
Bullish divergences on the daily fibre chart. Also bullish OTE right now.
Bullish SMT divergence on the daily charts and USDX fails to make higher high.
Bearish divergence on the daily USDX chart. The dollar also found resistance at a previous s+r level.
Fibre is currently trading at monthly MS1 which is also the 1.3150 level and just below the weekly pivot, so buy zone for pivots. We are in the buy zone of the TT (weekly and monthly) aswell.
Cable is below weekly MS1 and a bit above monthly MS2, so pivot buy zone here too. And we are in the buy zone of the TT (weekly and monthly).
As i see it the probability of a bullish move is increasing. We’ll see what LO brings, but with this data in mind i will be looking for longs tomorrow and the next days (well unless everything changes dramatically ).
Any thoughts?
yeah, that daily SMT between cable and usdx is nice. And thats why i was looking for longs today. Especially because of divergence with oscilator. Heck, and i was looking to go short tommorow :)) once again, am at crossroads and dont know which way to take.
I was looking to go long from 5670. The open price of the week. Like i said wasn’t a really good level, just thought it will hold.