Wow, I haven’t seen fiber hit 1.3248 today. It didn’t go past 1.3240 on my feed!
It official it did not hit 1.3248. Let the stoning begin :13:
Nope closed out b/c I got scared when price came back on me.
BTW - thanks on the weekly pivot recommendation - it really fits in with my trading style - really just trying for one or two trades a week.
Key support at 1.5780 on Cable for Monday. Price hit S1, retraced for M5 OTE entry at 5794. First TP at 30 pips. Second TP held for H4 resistance at 1.5880, 162% Ext from Asian high to day low at the same level, and stop run on Friday’s NY short trades…but took profits before the Fib because there was a confluence of Weekly pivot and Daily pivot at 5873. Good start to the week.
EDIT: Forgot to mention the 62% Fib retracement on the Daily chart at 5780.
nice one. took pretty much the same trade on the fiber.
Pretty big asian range for the fiber right now. Think ICT said > 40 pips usually means a monster move is ahead. Which direction?? lol
I luv weekly pivots 
1 tp off at 55pips now at BE +1 going for a measured move down to 1.5700 (might be a bit geedy).
Wally
Very nice, Wally. Question - what indicator do you use? I like the look of yours.
Good job I was waiting for that shrt setup this week but didnt get up for LO I expected it tomorrow night. You snooze you lose.
That’s just the euro SMT with the USDX (red) plopped on the same window. I posted the indicators in the other thead a few weeks ago, good luck finding the post LOL. I can post again if you don’t have it.
It was a not a hunted trade, I was waiting for a conformation of a bounce off the Weekly CPP and saw the price was (I thought) consolidating shorts in the sell zone also it looks like a H&S with a down sloping neckline with the head having a stoch divergance on the 1H.
Wally
Well Well you might not have been stalking it but I was. and yes that HS pattern seems to be shaping up nicely or at least was I cant see charts right now. So I still might get an entry tonight.
What time did you enter? I was looking for a move above the AR to go short. Higher timeframe was telling me short was a possibility. When price went down out of Asia, I went long because I had many confluence pointing to a long (market structure, market flow, MA’s, buy zone of pivots, last weeks low as support).
I entered long at S1 on the daily pivot during LO. took a loss there. Took a short at NYO when price came up and retested prior support as resistance at 1.5788. This trade is up 30 pips right now to offset my loss at LO…moved stop to BE and letting it ride.
Just realized I didn’t post this from last week.
Pretty mild trading last week. 4 trades. 2 winners, 2 losers. Pretty much breakeven for the week.
Realizing January was pretty volitile. Some big win weeks, and 2 4% loss weeks. February was much more stable. I think it has to do with the ADR shrinking over the past month. In January, I would hold a position going for the weekly range. February, I didn’t get any weekly range trades. Price seemed to oscillate more in a tighter range resulting in more BE trades where it goes in my favor, then retraces to take me out of the trade.
More procrastinating. Been a lot of stuff going on at home, and interviewing for a new job/changing jobs. Taking care of some other business first.
My analysis was to long cable at s1 which i ended up doing and losing. But before i put in my order i noticed the head and shoulders pattern which made me hesitant. Cable did bounce at s1 although not for 30 pips, and the head and shoulders did end up completing so all in all i’m happy with last night mainly because my analysis in both directions were partially right. Price did react at s1 which i was right on. And price did follow the HTF chart pattern which I also noticed. Furthermore, the level i noted last night created a reaction upwards as well, at the 5770 level. So even though i lost, i feel as though my chart reading ability is improving slightly.
Things to work on:
Trade in the HTF direction. It’s easy to say but it can be easily overlooked.
Don’t chase price (I’m a few pips guilty).
Build confidence in your own analysis.
Don’t be scared to enter if it aligns with your analysis. It can be scary since I am live.
The basics, I know but they have yet to be completely mastered.
EDIT:
I think I went long at S1 counter-trend because psychologically I was thinking, “I missed the long at S1 yesterday. There’s no way I’m missing it today.” It was also OTE from yesterdays low and we had sold off a lot putting us in the buy zone of the trinity. But the trigger was psychological.
Other things to note:
High of the week seems to have formed.
From head and shoulder projections, price of cable should reach the low of 5650, which is ~70 pips from the price right now.
Fiber should reach ~2980 which is 140 pips from now to gun those buy stops before going back up.
Seasonal chart says march is on average the lowest month of the year in price. Sept being the highest. It seems like they want their reports to say that they did well for the year so it’s somewhat engineered.
NFP day is friday. I’m curious to know what will happen.
Critical Thinking:
On the daily time frame, we barely breached the 79 retracement level before reversing creating a LTH. If we project it further, is 5500 figure a conceivable price level that price could reach before let’s say going back up to 5800? That would be the OTE from the LTL to the most recent LTH. From a swing traders chart, will cable consolidate and range from 5650 to 6000, or will it break through and breach the LTL?
Question:
We are in the sweet spot of OTE to go long on cable… but it’s also supposed to gun the stops at 5650. How do you know when to go long at OTE and when to go long at Reflection pattern OTE (or at gunned stop level if they are indeed the same)?
EDIT:
GLGT 
hi there
Wow I sure wish I saw this thread a day earlier… the weekly pivots as shown in the recent posts in here would have kept me from entering long today (at 1.5788) and got stopped out… the weekly pivots will definitely help me with my bias in the future, thanks a lot for the hint;)
at NYO I thought we could see the reversal market profile and I entered long again, pretty much at the same price as my first long (1.5777) and it went my way, but unfortunately not the 25 pips I was eyeing to move SL to BE and scale out a bit…
I eventually accepted that we are still heading south, and I closed my open long trade with a slight loss, and instead entered short at 1.5776 (this level seems to like me today;))
I had to enter on minimized risk after my 2 losses today, So I entered with 0.15 lots only…
this trade is still open (I will close it soon, as 18.00 is approaching) nearing +80 pips from my late entry;)
Scaled out a third at +25 pips, another third at roughly +40 pips, and the last 0.05 lots is still in the open.
Before NYO I was angry at myself. Even hit the gym to steam off for a little while… But I learned today, that the trading day isn’t over until its over;)
Although I didn’t make a hell of a lot of profit today, I’m happy that I could make up my losses of today, and some more;)
(demo only)
In January I started Demo trading with ICTs method, and made the mistake of trying to use all the tools, while not fully understanding all of them - which was confusing me too much to be profitable…
Now I took a few steps backwards and only use the basics, slowly adding more tools over the coming months, which hopefully will help me on my path to profitability and consistency.
Thanks for starting this thread. I’ll be lurking around;)
Cheers
Fredy
I’ll just search your thread posts - should be able to find it that way.
Me as well, -2%
Went long LO fiber. OTE from Monday’s low to the high of AR, S1, 3180 inst.level, and I anticipated a fractal low to form thinking that price would not break below yesterday’s low.
me too. I’m just teetering at breakeven right now on my first live account. I go up 2-3% then back down to negative 1-2% etc etc. I’m having second thoughts about partial profits. It seems like you need a high win rate to be profitable otherwise a single fully loaded loss wipes out quite a few wins where your first tp was hit then it hits breakeven. What do you guys think?
I’m kinda in the same boat right now and I know exactly what you mean. Like akeakamai said, it could be beneficial to play around with how much we take off at TP1 and let more/less ride. I think another thing is just more experience and being able to better determine the daily direction. I’m gonna focus a bit more on the overall trend and try to better nail if it’ll be an up or down day. Maybe taking less trades and only when you have a clear sense of direction. For example 1, maybe 2 trades a week for me instead of trying to trade every LO.