Think i'm crazy, read on... your probably going to hate me

Beginner Questions
1

Hello,

I just wanted to make some observations. Being on the forum for the last week and a bit, I’ve noticed some very repetitive questions, thoughts, ideas and mentality. In fact, don’t hate me for saying it, i’m just being truthful, but its confirmed for me why so many are losing, and also confirmed to me my approach to the markets.

When I look at the markets, I look at probability and statistics. So what I see are brokers with stats that show 98% of people failing. Ouch. That sucks. I was one of them at the beginning. So here is an important thing to remember…

[B]If 98% of people fail at forex, why try to do and use what everybody who is failing is using?[/B] It makes one ponder the question. What I’m about to tell you is my own thoughts and opinions. I’m not saying they are right, but they mine, and nobody can take that away. I can also prove my results and back them up, and have publically, so I think i have a right to share MY opinion. It doesn’t mean its right… but its working for me.

[B]1. Honesty [/B]- For some reason, traders have egos. I believe this has something to do with the population manly being men. Men have egos, lets admit it. Its part of being honest. I sucked at trading. I lost so much money that I felt like a total idiot. I stilll make stupid trades, and I pay for them, but thankfully they don’t happen nearly as often and i’ve been able to control myself. I have noticed that most traders have an ego. They can’t admit they are wrong, or they have no clue about something. So when talking to other people, how cautious about what they are saying are you? Professionals get together and talk about their stupid mistakes, not their winners. Losers talk about their winners… thats the 98%…

[B]2. So easy to win, so hard to lose[/B] - Its true. Its so easy to win at the forex, yet so many lose. Why ? Its not because of their strategy but they fail to do two things right. The first is manage their risk, the second is manage their leverage. In fact, if you are thinking that your leverage is the 500% your broker gave you, I suggest you look deeper into this… this is not the leverage i’m talking about. I’m talking about position leverage, not margin leverage. Ask your self… how big of a move can you withstand before your account goes boom? Traders do one of the two things wrong above if they are losing. Thats it, cut and dry, and the 98% do one of those two things wrong.

[B]3. Whats with all the why questions?[/B] - So many people ask “Why did this happen?”. Who cares? I say that because how is it going to help you? How is it going to help you with your next trade? DO you know with any degree of certainty that you are right? Take the lovely CNBC … bad job numbers come out, they expect the market to move the other way, but when it does the opposite, they rationalize it and justify it. Its human nature to do this, its what we do best… rationalize and put cause to effect… and the 98% ask WHY … please… stop asking those questions, think about it :wink:

[B]4. You dont know anything! And I don’t ither… [/B] - So many people say … “I know price will go up…” BS… you dont know nothing. You might think probability is on your side, but who are you kidding… so I ask, if you wish to succeed, admit you do not know anything, and don’t talk by using the word “know” … pleasssse! Its the one way to push my buttons when coming to forums where lots of new traders are … who I would love to help, its why I’m here, I just try to erase all the words “know” and skip over them … hehe and im not just talking about the casual people that throw in the word, there are people out there that will say … “Ill stick a gun to my head before that gbp turns north, i know it will go up!” … ya well, so long buddy!

These are my comments, I’m not saying they are right, its how I feel, and at the end of the day, I can still pay my bills… and put food on the table, and all that other stuff… above is what I believe, you can have your own opinion… I hope this helps some new people out there…

I hope most of you disagree with my comments, it will confirm my thoughts on the 98%… so thank you.

chrish

2

yes, nice post which hopefully will get many to consider where they are at and why

3

I don’t really understand what you mean about position leverage…I mean I might “know” (lol) but it’s not a label I identify as such. Can you give a good & bad example?

4

if your account balance is $1000 then for instance you open a positon of size say $20,000 ($2dollar pips) then your position leverage is 20:1, that is the position is 20 times your balance (20*1000=$20000).

Really the lower you can keep this leverage (it is your own choice when you open a position) then the less risk you are exposing yourself to. This leverage is true leverage and has nothing to do with the leverage the broker gives you which is basically your deposit for opening the position ie 100:1, 400:1

5

it’s easy to say look at the 98% and don’t do what they are doing, but what should one be doing?

6

I told you in the post. There are unlimited amount of ways to win, you just have to concentrate on losing.

  1. Control your leverage
  2. Control your risk management

So for example, if your going to risk 1 dollar, you better have the chance of making 2, and the probability of that happening better support it…

7

Ok…I knew that…lol. In other words, the lot/volume/position size.

Thanks for the translation trav :slight_smile:

8

You could have just said “Control your risk management”. Adding in “Control your leverage” is redundant. Risk management encompasses position sizing, which encompasses leverage. It’s all one happy thing. :slight_smile:

So for example, if your going to risk 1 dollar, you better have the chance of making 2, and the probability of that happening better support it…

You’ve got the probability part right, but saying you need to have at least a 2:1 reward/risk ratio is one of those “truth” things you were talking about earlier.

9

the statistics are 95-98% of traders blow their account and quit in their first 6 months, the other 5-2% more often than not have actually done the exact same thing except they were persistant and determined to reach their goal and accepted their losses treating them as a learning curve which will pay dividents in the near future.

that i believe is the difference between the two :stuck_out_tongue:

lee :slight_smile:

10

some other keys to success besides the obvios of finding a good system and good money management…

as you say persistence an determination despite setbacks

starting small enough that losses don’t crush you is a good thing. had I started big, the early losses would have discouraged me enough to give up completely.

Learning from someone who is proven succesful and not one of the 95-98%

Doctors have an oath, ‘first do no harm’ Forex should have something similar… ‘first controll your losses’ I try to get my stop loss to break even as soon as possible within reason and trail it after that and at least prevent a loss, that has helped.

‘Despite the impressive Superior Master title… where did that come from? :slight_smile: I’m still a noob but determined not to be one of the 95%’

11

Very nice post fxgroundworks.

Wish I disagreed with you for your 98% sake, but I don’t! :smiley:

12

The harder people try to convince other people that they are part of the 2% the less I’m inclined to think they actually are. :wink:

13

That sounds almost Shakespearian… Me thinks he doth protest too much

14

Amen!!! :slight_smile:

15

"These are my comments, I’m not saying they are right, its how I feel, and at the end of the day, I can still pay my bills… and put food on the table, and all that other stuff… above is what I believe, you can have your own opinion… I hope this helps some new people out there… "

I was in no way gloating with the fact I’m in the 2% or trying to convince you … I couldn’t care less what you think … just trying to help out those who might not be, and the fact that you feel the need to tear into me for doing so… well, at least I was trying to open some eyes… due to the attention the post has gotten, thank you for making it possible.

Someone had to say it, and well I got the balls… if your losing, don’t be bitter, you need to re-look at the approach … because your crazy , you keep doing the same thing over and over again expecting something different to happen…

I think you’ve just spawned a new post…

16

[B]Talon:[/B] Yes you are a Superior Master Contributor & Member [B]to/of the FORUM[/B]…not as a trader…(so many seem to get that twisted…lol.)

I agree with you that too many newbie traders start out with too big a bankroll from which to truly learn on. So when they lose it, they get totally discouraged and give up. That I believe is what the 95% failure rate is derived from.

How many times did Thomas Edison (favorite analogy in personal development curriculum…lol) fail before he succeeded in getting the light bulb working? Many! So was he ever considered part of the 95% of inventors that failed?..he would if he had given up! But he didn’t and eventually became successful.

One thing I observe about many of the 5% traders that are currently succeeding and then return to the newbie arena aka forums, is the tendency to impart these little pearls of wisdom that took them years to learn, and think we will miracously stop making the mistakes that will eventually make us successful (as long as we don’t give up). :wink:

[B]Forexgroundworks:[/B] So I don’t think we’d hate you for trying, but it’s more like you’re talking down to us in a way that is perhaps over many of our heads… (like position leverage). That then tends to lead to misunderstandings and overall general unpleasantries.

:cool:

17

I’m sorry, so many people I run into think their leverage is 500:1 … after I while, I just assume that people do since the vast population seems to think that is the leverage that they are taking/using…

I understand you don’t and I think its great that you know what it is, you probably get the same questions I do about 500:1 leverage … hehe

18

No can’t say I do (get the same questions about leverage)…lol. But I do see a lot of posts on the matter so I understand it’s something new traders have a hard time wrapping their heads around, not to mention there are many different ways of looking at it…which way clicks for one, won’t for another especially since it’s often a totally new concept for them to begin with.

The problem is is that people in general don’t look further than the end of their noses to find all those threads, and then they post another thread asking about it…arrgh!

Assuming (you know what they say about that word) on a forum is dangerous to one’s success in relating/relaying their message.

19

This makes a LOT of sense and puts a lot of things into perspective. I’m still only in the demo phase, but when I got a winner I pat myself on the back for following my system and seeing the trend move the way my indicators told me they would…

But when I got a loser, I will spend hours looking at the chart…on multiple time periods, look at the news, etc…try to figure out why it didnt do what I expected it to do. I will spend probably 10 times more time analyzing losing trades than winning trades.

I’m going with Ichimoku, so there are THAT many more variables to consider too…great post.

20

[B]fxgroundworks[/B]

You’re still playing Harmonic[a]…? :rolleyes: