I was going to ask this, but you answered it. Thanks for sharing.
“Trade like a sniper, not a machine gunner.You cannot chase every single rabbit that you see” - from thescruffytrader.com.
I like this very much. Especially being a day-trader, it reminds me not to go for every set-up as they come along. There are set-ups and there are good set-ups. Be patient, be selective. But above all, do your pre-trading day homework and know what you are looking for before it appears. Much better than just spontaneously spotting an opportunity and jumping on it…
But above all, it reminds me never to go chasing after “rabbits” that have already made a good head-start. As soon as you catch up with it, it reverses into the other direction…
In day trading, winning is not so much about the direction, it is much more about where you get in and where you get out.
“Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently.”” - Henry Ford
True - but also emphasises the role of risk/money management. You can only start again if you still have a balance left to start with…
You sure said a mouthful. This is exactly what I’m dealing with now. I’ll have several good trades running, and at the same time I’m taking repeated losses with other trades.
I’m trying to understand what you just said and internalize it. Just because there’s a set up and there’s a possibility of profiting, that doesn’t mean that there’s a HIGH possibility of profiting.
Has this been a struggle for you? Or has it been easy?
The first caveat here is that we are only talking about discretionary trading where the method offers “suggested” opportunities but the trader makes the decision whether to take the trade or not.
Mechanical systems will automatically take all trades and rely on “number of winning trades x pips exceeds number of losing trades x pips”.
We are trying to combine these two approaches to the best advantage.
I think one of the first things we need to be clear about is what kind of trading we are doing. For example, it is not easy to be both a trend trader and a range trader. A trend trader will make good profits from the occasional long trend but will often give back a lot during ranging markets. Similarly, a day trader can make regular smaller amounts with a high success rate but will always miss out on the long trends. If we try to be be all things in all market conditions then we will end up being nothing in any market conditions!
And this is another reason why journalling can be useful. It is important to know why a trade didn’t work. For example, was it a fake signal? Was the signal good but the stop too close? Was it a good trade but failed to reach the target? Did we erroneously interfere with the trade parameters? and so on.
This kind of analysis can highlight whether the faults lie in the method itself or in our own decisions and actions.
We all know that no method works all the time and every move’s “cycle” is individual. So our approach needs to be able to absorb the variations but still respond to definitive changes. For example, a stoploss should not just be a mathematically calculated number of pips just to meet an R:R ratio. It needs to be at a point which, if reached, nullifies the rationale on which the trade is based. And if that point is too far away then either the position size can be reduced or ignore the signal.
This might sound complicated but it is not difficult and becomes second-nature after a time.
Is it a struggle or easy? Well, I don’t think anything in trading is actually “easy” or “difficult”. It is more a question of having a clear set of criteria when analysing a set-up (e.g. ignoring signals based on exceptionally long candles) and keeping to the discipline to follow the rules.
Personally, I also think it is important how one follows one’s own trading. It is perhaps most common to just focus on the current trade: when to enter and where to get out and how did it work out. But, actually, the only measure of success in trading is whether our equity is increasing or decreasing over time. Therefore, one can ask a question on each set-up: “Is this trade likely to increase my wealth?” It is surprising how often one might answer with, “it’s actually a bit too risky”. The enthusiasm to be in the market and to win trades can be quite blinding at times and it is actually closer to a gambling mentality than simply building one’s wealth step by step.
Just some thoughts…
Good point. A problem I have is that any setup could result in profit. Sure, because it’s either going to go up or down. I all too often take trades that I have no idea where it will go, but if I’m right, I’ll profit. I look at those trades as 50/50 chance of winning.
But it’s more complicated than that. I get scared and go against my strategy. My strategy allows me to switch from buy to sell but only based on a signal. I sometimes do it out of FOMO.
That’s why I’m taking time to study more charts, and trying to understand my signals and strategy better. Another big thing I’m trying to understand is that not all signals are worth taking. For example, if price reverses, it’s okay to wait until the third bounce and confirm the channel. That means you’re staying on the sidelines during those first two bounces.
You could have jumped in on those first two bounces and got some nice profits, but instead you’re waiting. Watching price swing up and down like that and doing nothing kinda hurts.
But you’re staying out for a reason. You don’t know if price will bounce or continue. But a third bounce increases the probability of winning.
That’s just an example. I’m learning that some movements serve only as a reference point, not as an entry signal.
@SovoS Do you have any experiences like that? Some movements serve as a reference point, and you’re just waiting waiting waiting? If you have experience waiting for an entry signal and just watching trends while on the sidelines, how do you feel?
This is hard to comment on without knowing your strategy or having some examples to work with. But generally speaking this suggests either a general lack of trust in your strategy or that the signals are a bit fudgy and open to interpretation.
I believe one needs very clear, unambiguous signals from one’s strategy. But, at the same time, one has to recognise that the market behaves differently all the time and that sometimes there will be pull-backs, sometimes just a straight up or down continuation, and sometimes just a steady and slow grind - and sometimes a total bellyflop and reversal. (This last one I find hardest to accept, i.e. entering a position that then immediately goes the other way…)
Sometimes it is better to only enter with half a position and look to add more on a pullback. In that way, if there is no pullback you are at least in the trade by half your position size.
But whichever approach you adopt you need to have faith in the overall success of your strategy or you will struggle to reach a state of consistency in your results?
Yes, it occurs from time to time. My strategy involves price breaking through MA’s. But there are times when it is not clear whether a trade is worthwhile. For example, if price breaks through to the downside but the MA’s are still pointing upwards then this may just be a stronger pullback. So I wait for another candle to complete and/or drop to a lower timeframe for more confirmation before entering.
But the point is that I have a concrete process for these situations so it does not cause any great uncertainty or stress - and if it remains unclear then just dismiss it and wait for the next move…
I was just listening to Eric Thomas. He was talking about when there seems to be no hints of success around you, you have to keep going, and you have to have faith that your work will bear fruit.
He said: Faith is believing in the dark what you were told in the light.
Hmmm, Interesting comment - but I am not sure I agree with that one!
To my mind, if we find ourselves in the dark when there seems to be no hints of success around us then we need to proactively turn on the light and find out why!
There are at least three reasons for these periods, maybe more, and we can shed light on them and identify them and correct them as necessary:
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A structural change in the market’s characteristics that are not matching our setup criteria
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Our strategy does not actually work
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We are not trading our strategy due to personal/pyschological interference with what we should be doing
All these are real and normal and can be assessed objectively.
Personally, I think this approach is better than faith alone…?
I know what you’re saying. I think it means that when you feel hopeless, just have faith in yourself that you can do it and your work will pay off. That’s all. If you keep studying and making necessary corrections, you’ll get to where you wanna be.
That certainly makes sense. However there is always the question of scale. Losses are normal and should be anticipated within one’s strategy. If one starts tinkering every time one trade goes down then it really will become an endless chain of recycling one’s thoughts…not saying that you do that!
Been there, done that!! haha
But for me this quote means that when I started learning to trade, it all seemed possible. Many times during the journey it has seemed IMPOSSIBLE. In the books, in Pipsology, and all over this forum, people tell you it’s possible.
But no one can prepare you for what you may have to go thru to make it to profitability. The price is different for everyone.
I just gotta stay focused on the idea that it’s possible.
I replied to this on your Trade Journal thread.
I/we very often talk on this forum about the importance of learning to run your trading as a business. You need to be proud of your business but you also need to do the work required to make it succeed.
I was really pleased to notice this posting by Dr Pipslow on this very topic. Its really worth a read and then to also activate it!
I do the same thing. This is the reason why I prefer to buy books rather than borrow from the library. The library is a good place for books that I need just once.
There are several books that I’ll need later for future reference. Those are the ones I buy.
I highlight them so that I don’t need to re-read the book later. I’ll even put little stickynotes on the pages so I can find the important pages faster.
Its been a while, but good quotes never have a “sell by” date…
Here’s a wise thought for traders in particular. There really is no reason for urgency and fast is not always the same thing as success. Less is more and “Fast is slow”
Hello SovoS you been meaning to post this, all the months you have been away.
I heard a guy Eric Thomas talk about this. You never see tortoises ran over by cars in the street. But you see squirrels hit by cars all the time.
true! - and thinking about it, that reflects yet another trading observation:
Squirrels don’t necessarily get hit by cars just because they are fast, but also because they constantly reverse direction back and forth in front of the car - a bit like the trader who chases market prices up and down, buying this then selling that - and then blames the market when the stops gets hit… .
Exactly!! If squirrels are so fast, how can they get hit by cars so often? Perhaps being fast isn’t everything. Or, if you’re going to be fast, you need an additional skill with it?
I prefer the surfing analogy. Wait for the wave, wait, wait, enjoy the water and sunshine…paddle, paddle, ride! repeat…