From what I know you can risk 200 pip stop and still be risking 1% of your account…
Can we continue with PureMuscle’s idea here?
I rewrote my opening post, since I’m kinda starting part 2 of my journey now - more focused and way more determined to be successful 
Any comments are welcome!
Today’s trade:
Pair: GBPUSD
Bias: LONG
Entry: 1.6022 (second position scaled in at 1.6054)
Exit: 1.6080 (both positions)
Result: [B]+83 pips[/B]
Return: 1.66% (risk to reward of [B]1 : 3.3[/B])
Both trades were at 0.5% risk as per my risk management plan. Note that the second entry was only scaled in once the first one was already with the SL at break-even, thus risk was 0% on that trade, and 0.5% in total.
Reasons for entry (apologies for Netdania charts - I will start using Metatrader for these):
- Entered during LO (7H11AM and 8H27AM GMT respectively)
- Did not enter until key level hit - 1.6020
- 1.6020 is below the CPP (probably in line with MS1) and is a perfect OTE from yesterdays low to yesterday’s high
- Raided stops underneath Asian range
- Nice M5 divergence between EU, GU and USDX (below):
- I did not take the diverging pair (EU) because EURGBP was entering an OTE short zone (meaning it was likely that there would be some GBP strength, all other things being equal.)
- Perfect bullish stochastic divergence on H1 chart (below):
- The USDX had just made a short term high directly on the 61.8 retracement (Sept 4 High to Sept 13 Low) to go short. This also happened to be a reflection OTE (check it out below)
As an aside, my exit management is awful - I am often clueless as to when I should exit. Does anyone have any advice for me on this?
It’s time to master the art of digging myself out of holes! LOL, only around [B]11%[/B] to go!
Hi PureMuscle,
Don’t mind me hijacking your thread for a question since you have posted detailed analysis. I have taken a short trade today because it looks just like a typical LO Sell Day. (see pics). Care to highlight to me what went wrong? I couldn’t figure out what the banks were doing. On the initial break below Asian Range, i thought that fractal had changed and MF is down? :34:
My Entry: 1.6064
Target: 1.6039 / 1.6010
Stop loss: 1.6084
Obviously I was stopped out. Didn’t even manage to scale of my 1st profit (short of 1 pip to hit)
Thanks for the question RookieForex
Prior to LO today, the H4 market flow was bullish (see pic below). Market flow was bullish and would only change to bearish on a break of the most recent fractal low, that being 1.5984. So what happened is a turtle soup on the stops sitting below the Asian range (1.6020) and into the buy pivot zone. So you have price breaking down out of the Asian range, raiding stops, market flow is bullish, market structure is bullish higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday, bullish divergence between EU and GU - Looks remarkably like a London Open Buy day 
I try my best to never trade against the H4 market flow, 9 times out of 10 you get burnt. I think that maybe was the missing factor in your analysis.
Hey PM, What is that Market Flow indi you have in your MT4?? Nice trade in the Cable
Hey yunny, thanks!
It’s a market flow indi I picked up from Manta a long time back, I tried to look for the original post of his, but to no avail. I can post it if you’d like it
I found it… It is based on fractals? I’ve been looking for something similar but that can work with ZigZag…
Thanks for the reply PureMuscle! I was actually looking at H1 charts during that time and neglected H4. I thought that the turtle soup had turned H1 MF bearish as it broke the fractal low of the previous day (1.6025). One thing for sure, price “did not” close lower than 1.6025, so that is probably the fake that suck me into believing that flow had turned bearish. 
I looked at your EU/GU/USDX divergence chart closely and realised that you had used M5 chart. I was looking at M15 and could not spot a divergence. On hindsight, when I switched to M5, it was there. I thought that SMT divergence will appear on all timeframes at a key S&R level, but assume I don’t see it on M15, so how will I know if the SMT on M5 is valid?
By the way, I am going thru your thread. Clear and concise trade explanations you have here. :35:
Yep, based on fractals - it’s made it a lot easier to see market flow at a glance.
Thanks bro! Hmmm, yes I always use the M5 chart because it was how ICT first taught the concept waaay back. You will certainly see divergences on a H1 chart or perhaps any timeframe for that matter, but the M5 one helps you catch the move early during a killzone. Generally, if there isn’t any M5 divergence, you’re taking a chance - you can ask me all about mistakes like that, I’m a master of them
Also, it’s fine looking at the H1 market flow, but rather use it in conjunction with the H4 one. The H4 one seems to be the overriding market flow indicator most of the time, well in my experience at least. Another concept ICT taught waaay back, but which still applies beautifully today
Better to make mistakes early than later yah
Ok, will take note of what you had just mentioned. I read all the posts in ICT’s 2 original threads, but I guess the info is too overwhelming that I tend to miss some (when I dozed off at night). Hopefully I can understand those bit by bit through early mistakes too. Thank you!
Very nice. :35:
As for profits… take First portion at what your initial risk was in Pips. Leave remaining portion Stop same until 2x initial risk in pips is achieved in profits… move protective stop to BE. Scale out 50% of remaining portion [50% of original total position] leave last portion or 25% of total trade position to reach for higher level objectives like ADR, Old Daily Highs, Weekly Highs or Trinity extreme levels as a few suggestions.
Don’t complicate the profit taking aspect… that’s easy. Get PAID.
The hard stuff is staying out when you should and scoping up and taking aim when it’s Optimal.
Way to go…
[B]GLGT :57:[/B]
This is an interesting post I made a while back which I think is worth revisiting:
Right, I’ve decided to write a few thoughts on how I will measure my success as a trader.
I think the overriding goal that I will be aiming for is not to be consistently profitable, but rather to consistently know when the odds are heavily stacked in favour of a particular trade, and ONLY THEN to act upon it. This concept alone will undoubtedly ensure long term profitability, and at the same time it will cure my disease known as “Impatience”.
It is no secret that us newbies struggle with emotions, over-trading, revenge-trading etc. So I feel that if I can train myself to just let go of some of these feelings I will put myself in a much better stead to become successful. A few thoughts I would rather never have in my mind would be along the lines of:
- “This doesn’t look like a perfect time to enter but I’m sure it’ll still move down (up) at some stage”
- “It’s outside of LO, NYO and LC but I still think this is a key level and I should take the trade anyway”
- “Dammit, I just lost that trade but I’m sure if I get back in now that it’s gone all the way to my stop, I’ll be safe and hit the absolute top (bottom) of the turn in price”
- “The market flow is upwards but today it looks like there was a Judas Swing upwards above the Asian range right into a strong resistance level - Let me take a short position!”
- “Oh YEAH! I just scored a cracker of a win! I made 8%! Wow, so close to 10%… Hmmmm… maybe just one more trade and I’ll get there… Let’s do it!”
- “Dammit, another loss! I need to get my winnings back, but I also need to cut back on risk… Ah screw it, I know this will be a win, just look at it - let’s keep the risk up, maybe even take a double position…”
- “I’ve reached my goals for the week and it’s only Tuesday… I will surely make a few more pips… Let’s give it a few more shots!”
Hahaha ok well I don’t know about other traders, but those thoughts have definitely crossed my mind countless times, and they consistently result in a loss of consistency, so to speak
I feel that if only I can eliminate these niggling thoughts and just focus on taking trades with very high probabilities of success, then I will become successful. So I will regularly come back to this post to measure myself up and see how I’m doing at pushing these thoughts aside (and perhaps adding a few new ones ).
All for one and one for all!
I’d like to see how I rank against these now…
- “This doesn’t look like a perfect time to enter but I’m sure it’ll still move down (up) at some stage” - [I]I’ve overcome this one now, I honestly don’t see the merit in entering a position late, since it cuts what would have been a decent stop loss into something much more risky.[/I]
- “It’s outside of LO, NYO and LC but I still think this is a key level and I should take the trade anyway” - [I]Still doing this one… It’s a tough one though because sometimes price does make a high or low outside of the killzones, but the moral of the story is that it’s not playing the probabilities…[/I]
- “Dammit, I just lost that trade but I’m sure if I get back in now that it’s gone all the way to my stop, I’ll be safe and hit the absolute top (bottom) of the turn in price” - [I]Well I certainly haven’t overcome this one yet! Revenge trading is the bane of every trader’s life, but nevertheless, I’m working hard on this at the moment.[/I]
- “The market flow is upwards but today it looks like there was a Judas Swing upwards above the Asian range right into a strong resistance level - Let me take a short position!” - [I]Up until two weeks ago this one was ruling my trading roost as well, making me switch my bias regularly, but I have put a new mindset in place that ensures that I ONLY trade my daily bias, I will not change it based purely on a reaction in price. So for now let’s call this one done.[/I]
- “Oh YEAH! I just scored a cracker of a win! I made 8%! Wow, so close to 10%… Hmmmm… maybe just one more trade and I’ll get there… Let’s do it!” - [I]Another profit killer. This one still dominates me and it’s another one I’m working on hard at the moment. We’ll have to test and see what happens next time I’m in this dilemma.[/I]
- “Dammit, another loss! I need to get my winnings back, but I also need to cut back on risk… Ah screw it, I know this will be a win, just look at it - let’s keep the risk up, maybe even take a double position…” - [I]Yep, this one was a biggie as far as my trading was concerned. I’ve learnt to keep risk in check somewhat, but I still did not fully follow my risk management and I have paid the price nicely over the last few weeks.[/I]
- “I’ve reached my goals for the week and it’s only Tuesday… I will surely make a few more pips… Let’s give it a few more shots!” - [I]Lol, this is probably the biggest reason why my account has experienced such a wonderful drawdown of late. Chasing goals is no longer my priority, as I have learnt from substantial losses over the past few weeks, especially when being soooo close to finishing the month in a positive gain.[/I]
So that’s three out of seven by my count. Pretty bad considering how long ago I posted this and also the fact that I’ve only rectified two of them in the last week or so - LOL! Anyway, time will tell whether I can overcome all of these thoughts. I’ve actually gotta add a few more now that I think about it!
Only saw this now, thanks a million for the advice Mike! I will certainly take it to heart. I’m so focused on working like a machine when entering and especially exiting a trade, so I need to start getting paid asap, instead of hanging on greedily.
Thanks again, I’m going to add that exact advice to my plan now actually Let’s see how I shape up against it.
Ah for goodness sake! I traded against the H4 again and against my daily bias and it looks like I will be taken out accordingly! Ag ya, make a mistake - get punished for it; that’s the only way the lesson will be learnt.
Pair: EUR/USD
Bias: SHORT (Weekly, Daily, 4 Hourly, Hourly, they’re all freaking bullish and I went for a short… WHY?)
Entry: 1.2993 (wanted 1.3000 but some nice slippage stopped that!)
SL: 1.3020
Reasons for entry (besides stupidity ;)):
- Stop raid on 1.3000 level
- H1 stochastic divergence
- H1 divergence between EU and USDX
- R1: Pivot sell zone
- Not much else!!!
Considering price has pushed above 1.3010, I consider this a failed trade already. Nevertheless, like I said, lesson learnt for trading against H4 market flow and market structure on all timeframes.
Hey guys,
These were my outlooks this morning.
I am going to have to post these seperate as BP won’t allow me to inclued so many links in one post.
Please guys, tell me where I am right and where I am wrong and what charactaristics I might not be looking out for in these studies. The main reason for this post is for me to learn and to clarify things for people that might see things, wrong or right, the way I see them.
Analysing the Dollar
1st off the Dollar: Open int has dropped dramatically. Do I have it right by saying thats bullish? These are they guys that only sell and if they stop then they must have a reason…
COT reports show that the commercial longs are at a high for the year. I understand that thats also bullish as they buy into declines and sell into rallies.
The Dollar is in a considaltion phase but it looks like the 78.50 level held and that it has made 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs.
The dollar is aproaching the OTE buy zone
Conclusion: Look for sell signals in your analysis on the foreign currency pairs.
Next up The EUR/USD pair.
This pair does not give a clear sign on the COT and open int report.
The open int has dropped but the COT data shows that the commercials are at a extreme low in their positions for the year.
Conclusion: Don’t trade the EUR/USD pair until further study reveled or confirms bullish or bearish sentement.
The GBP/USD pair.
The open int has dropped but quickly returned higher, together with the commercial specualtors being at a extreme short position for the year, it seems bearish to me. Which is also aproved by the analysis on the USDx.
Based on the video “indisde the range” it looks to me that on the daily chart I should stick to selling.
The 1H chart is coming back to the sweet spot on a minor swing, I know thats not great if it retraces to it, but it’s at the 1.6100 level.
The 15m chart also shows a high broken on the EUR/USD while the GBP/USD and USDx pairs did not break those highs at the time when this screenshot was taken.
