One day when I’m rich I’m gonna come have a beer with you!!! LOL!!!
You want to know something that’s really funny:
I have had no less than two people contacting me privately asking me to help them to become successful in trading FOREX. I’ve told them I cannot help them with FOREX but happy to show them what’s going on here and maybe make a FEW % per month. NOT INTERESTED!!! The moment it’s not FOREX and you’re not quoting +500% gains in a day: not interested. I don’t get it other than to say that this retail FOREX marketing machine is REALLY something to behold.
As I’ve just posted on another thread: getting mightily slaughtered on Oil at the moment. Although it has recovered somewhat since that post. Was just reminding myself of that “if your stop gets hit you’ll be glad it did” statement that I quoted somewhere above!!! LOL!!! But we’re now about of a third of the way to the stop. Support at around $50 would be really nice (that’s approximately half way to the stop).
Everything else doing fine. Facebook in profit. WAS in a small profit on Google (now a teeny loss). Quite surprising though i.e. wasn’t expecting to see a profit at all on Google today as the spreads on these things are not for the miserly or feint of heart I can tell you that.
And VERY tempted to double up on these two Oil positions by placing a limit buy at around $50.20 on WTI (and at the equivalent point on Brent). But is that trading proper??? It’s certainly not following my trading system. Could I ride it out down to $42??? Nope. Is that a valid support level??? COULD be. Worth the gamble (because that’s what it would be for me)??? VERY difficult question to answer under the circumstances. For sure have way enough margin to do this so that’s not a consideration.
Feel free to chime in anybody. I will not hold you responsible so no need for your input to be accompanied by disclaimers!!! LOL!!!
Just placed a TP at today’s high on the NASDAQ that price being just inside of R1. Seems a bit sluggish now but look what happened yesterday with the S&P. if it reaches the TP then great. If not: will cancel the TP if RSI(2) is below 70 at the close. Obviously will just take profit if RSI(2) closes at or above 70.
This just totally off topic but posted for the sake of interest and for another forum friend of mine.
The chart below is a daily chart of Nymex Crude going back to whenever. Take a look at what happens with the ADX line at every single turning point or pause in the trend (this being the white line obviously). Don’t bother with whatever the ADX value was at the time i.e. it’s just the shape of the line we’re interested in. In every single instance: the moment there is a pause or a reversal in the trend that line turns down within a day or two. That’s a very basic interpretation but it gets the idea across. Wilder actually says that when this happens (assuming you’ve been riding the trend) it’s rarely a bad time to take profit with a possible view to re-entering at a later stage and possibly at a better price (not sure I agree with the re-entry part but definitely with the booking profit part).
And by the way: these are not signals to enter a trade or reverse direction i.e. there’s other ways of trading this. it is only an indication of the strength or weakness of the trend.
If you look at the most current data: you’ll see what I meant when I said I’d be a lot more comfortable with Oil once ADX has turned down. But it is what it is according to my core trading system (TPS).
And if you look nice at that last huge downtrend: note how ADX first turns up, then down, then rises again but it’s a lower high. Exactly what I was referring to and as Wilder states: not uncommon for this to happen at the end of a trend i.e. the final “blow off” stage. Needless to say: not something I need to happen on Oil right now!!! LOL!!!
And this is not cherry picked i.e. you can put this on whatever chart you like (FOREX charts being an exception in my opinion of course but who knows).
Just thought I’d add an update and some realism here:
Dunno who I’m trying to fool!!! LOL!!! Very easy to say “well maybe taking only long trades is the way to go because it just feels right”. But it’s not that easy when you start seeing signals building up to short!!! LOL!!! Especially if you’re taking into account all of the uncertainty and nonsense going on in the world (which, I know in my case and with this system, I shouldn’t be bothered about). Becomes even more difficult if you’re actually able to even vaguely see areas of resistance above. And then of course there’s my system for trading double tops i.e. got no problem shorting there obviously. And of course I do need to bear in mind that this thing works only by buying or selling pullbacks against the prevailing trend. So I don’t know. Maybe time for me to revert back to neutral on this i.e. without a bias one way or the other.
The crutial part in long only (as in all trading) is timing. Its fairly possible to not do 1 trade for weeks or months. But then once at that low point the sentiment starts to shift you will find yourself confronted with the problem of having too many opportonities and then youll need to chose the ones which might outperform even the bullish run. And then you will enter positions and do absolutely nothing but hold on to them for weeks or months.
Edit:
Nothing wrong with going short.
The technicals are also that shorts are quick and nasty in volatility and longs are calmer and last longer. So when shorting do it very carefully and dont overstay in the short time isnt ur friend. When longing time is your friend and the longer you stay the better you earn.
You make some good points. I guess maybe I’m confusing myself with a trend following system (which I have not tried trading for many years) and a shorter term type trading system such as this one.
I suppose truth be told: given my circumstances I don’t have the luxury of sitting on my hands waiting for a bottom and then a trend to develop. So that plays a part too I’m sure.
Just saw your last paragraph. Yeh. At least with this trading system there’s no question when to get out and it leaves nothing to your imagination. Nice thing about being short and which we know is market phenomenon: markets fall faster but for shorter duration than going up. That’s the ideal for a system such as this.
Of course let me not forget that my best trade in life ever was being short with this trading system during the first Brexit referendum!!!
Be nice to ride a trend again (or at least try). Am busy looking at something right now (for want of something better to do in the day) that may or may not have merit. Will throw it open on a new thread for comment soon I think. For me: ideal situation would be to catch a nice trend and with pyramiding into the trend and just let that run on the side for weeks while doing what I’m doing now to pay the bills type of thing.
Of course there is one VERY good reason to only trade LONG trends (as opposed to short) and that’s dividends. Those add up pretty nice especially during earnings season. But they can cost you a LOT too if you’re short. Even with this trading system of mine and being long the Hang Seng for a few days: I made more on dividends than I did when I closed the position out (was being impatient) (of and course HOW DID I KNOW that the moment I did that it would start to move up i.e. has done nothing but frustrate me for nearly four weeks and THE MOMENT I get out it moves!!! LOL!!!).
Just an observation for those that MAY be monitoring this thread and the system itself:
Out of sheer boredom (waiting for something to move) I just pulled up a monthly chart of Gold (but take your pick of instrument really) with the as advertised entry and exit points (but removing the 200-day SMA which is then no longer valid). Well: if you look at the entries and exits they’re nigh perfect. With B-I-G capital I think you could be looking at the sports cars and fancy houses type of trades. But as I say you’d need B-I-G capital to make it worth your while even although the system is extremely accurate. Nobody is going to hold positions open for months on end with the potential profit in the hundreds if you see what I’m saying. But potential profit in the tens or hundreds of thousands but with decent capital: definitely doable.
I’d be willing to take those trades. Unwilling to study your system though LOL, would probably mess up my own. What say you Dale? Care to do a little experiment? I’d gladly set aside say $1,000 of my profits to trade some gold on a longer time frame.
Let me work out what capital would be required in order to trade that on the monthly charts (sort of reverse engineer my calculations if you like). Could be interesting to see.
Well first of all you don’t need to delete unless you don’t want this info. out there. But I have no issues whatsoever. Matter of fact: very nice post (that I’ve not fully digested as yet).
I’m still reading and digesting and will comment as things come to me (otherwise I forget things).
Now I’ll tell you what I find interesting and that I’ve noticed (and I think this is pretty much exactly what you’re saying):
There is one thing I’m very sure of and that is the fact that for some reason or the other: I would have to say that my best trades with this system are on the S&P 500. And this in spite of me going to great lengths to balance out or normalize all of the other instruments in relation to each other. Which once again brings me back to something I’ve said above somewhere: I think it’s the reason that most traders of this (our) type gravitate to the S&P 500 or the SPY etc. etc. etc. Now one could argue well why just not increase your lot sizes on the S&P and forget about all of the other instruments. I don’t have a good reason for feeling like this BUT that to me would seem to be having all of your eggs in one basket. I know that makes no sense because all of these markets are highly correlated.
