TPS (Time, Price, Scale-in) Revisited

Trading Systems
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Keep rambling. I enjoy it. And rambling is welcome on this thread (have you seen some of posts??? LOL!!!).

TDAmeritrade. They’re pretty good are they not??? They used to advertise on Bloomberg which is usually enough for me (I’m a sucker I know). But they must offer CFDs on Indices and Oil and stuff??? Those don’t expire. Only Futures contracts expire and you don’t have to bother with them unless you want to but there’s no good reason really given the sheer amount of instruments available. Maybe they also offer ETFs??? Sure they offer individual Stocks too??? Sky is the limit for you there my good man.

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Ahhh. OK. No CFDs. Doesn’t matter. You got ETFs and Futures. You got the world at your fingertips there my man. And a real deal broker. This trading system (by the way) is actually specifically designed for ETFs. It just happens to work on CFDs and Futures where the spreads are lower. And even better is that the ETFs that you could trade will trade during the times of the NYSE. Means you have a life and don’t have this 24/5 bullsh*t day in and day out. So c’mon. Get with the program!!! LOL!!!

Better make hay while the sun shines because old Big Red there… Well who knows. Then again may be good for business. MIG jets over Wall Street be a pretty strong signal to short the S&P or SPY ETF let’s face it!!! LOL!!! In poor taste I know. Sorry. But he really does need to watch the news now and then. Putin not mincing words today.

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Perhaps the “Man in the High Castle” is a prophecy!! In all seriousness… I find that the opening montage incredibly thought provoking… asking myself “can you imagine?”

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Now that looks like the kind of thing that I’d read (and I don’t read that much). Thanks.

Yeh listen dude. I’m getting all excited for you here. You also got Interactive Brokers. And first prize: TradeStation Securities. That’s all real deal my good man. The volume you get, for example, is real volume and not some half hearted approximation from some retail FOREX broker. You got no excuses!!! LOL!!! Alright: dunno what the (your proposed) capital situation is like though. I know with TradeStation (and I would imagine the others) you’ve got some pretty hefty minimum margin requirements (bearing in mind you have higher overnight margin requirements). But still. And you’ve got the CFTC. What more do you need??? LOL!!!

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Right. That’s it. I’m out. Out of Oil, Facebook, and Google.

Call me chicken if you like. But not going to sit back and watch profits like that (relatively speaking) slip away. Also: stalling at pivots. Matter of fact: Facebook has traded to and stalled at R4 no less. Oil doesn’t seem to be able to break through today’s high (not for now anyway).

Anyways. I’m happy. Relatively speaking. And here’s why I say relatively speaking:

Realized profit for the month thus far: 9.98%.
But taking into account current floating P/L: 3.89% (but will update after the close).

Added problem (and one of the reasons why the floating loss is so high): for some obscure reason my lot sizes on both the S&P and the Dow are currently over what I should be trading on each of them. And by the time I scale-in to full positions they’re going to be more than double what they should be. I actually have no idea how that happened (it wasn’t me being greedy or sure of myself I assure you). Not the end of the world. All it means is that I cannot take anymore trades other than starting to scale-in on the NASDAQ tonight. And I will have to adjust the hard stops on my two oversize positions to accommodate for my error.

So currently short Gold, S&P, and the Dow. And that’s it.

One thing I need to add here is that I’m very pleasantly surprised at the amount of money I made on Facebook and Google relative to position size, margin requirement, and spread. When I saw the spread cost come off the account when I opened the positions I thought “oh no that’s just great”. But it’s all relative really.

Anyway. I don’t see RSI(2) closing below 70 on any of the instruments where I’ve closed out at profit. So no rules broken at this time. True.these things could have tanked in the next hour and then the positions would have to have remained open. Or they could shoot up even further in the next hour or so. Sucks to be me either way I guess. But I am satisfied.

And I will admit that I’m not convinced by this reprieve in Oil. To be honest: it appears to have hit resistance right where it’s trading now (both of them). In addition: even although ADX’s acceleration is slowing it’s still shooting up. My gut feel is telling me that we’re going to hang around here for a day or two maybe, ADX is going to turn down, and then we’re going down. This will cause ADX to rise again. But when ADX starts to slow down and turn again and then head down: I reckon we’ll be at the bottom. I know I’m making a lot of assumptions here. But if I’m right: I’d sure like to take a look at some of the trend following systems that I’ve spent so much time on over the years but that have never yielded anything (and so far as I can tell that’s my fault and not the fault of the trading systems in question). But we shall see. I think I’m going to have a little time to revisit and see what I can come up with.

So there you have it thus far for today. Good day.

Update:

Not going to be able to scale in to the NASDAQ using exponential formula. Sorry to disappoint. Even at my minimum lot size it will push me to three times the maximum position size. And my S&P and Dow positions are worse than I thought i.e. by the time I’m full scaled in those positions will be FIVE times what they should be. I have absolutely no idea how this happened. But suffice to say it would be prudent for me to concentrate on those two positions first by simply plodding along with them, adjusting the hard stop to accommodate for my stuff up, and just go with the flow.

What I may in all probability do though is scale-in tier 4 or T4 on Gold AS IF I’d been using the exponential method. in other words: T4 will be the difference between what the position size would be using the normal scale-in method and using the exponential method. This is doable as it doesn’t really push any limits beyond what’s reasonable or acceptable.

Update then done:

Actually. I’m calling it a day. Will not be scaling in on any of the currently open positions at market tonight. Will rather place limit orders over the weekend. If they gap up: I’ll get in at a better price on all. If they gap down: well quite frankly and at this time I need to lighten the load on these positions more than anything else. I really don’t understand how I made these two mistakes. Not concentrating or late nights or what. No idea. Certainly not drinking (haven’t had a thing to drink for at least two months). That would have been a better excuse actually!!! LOL!!!

So that’s all folks.

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I think that is well said. Although for 2 days one might think things are going well we are actually only a few ticks away from last Friday’s WTI close at 53.34 - we haven’t really gone anywhere all week.

But we are pretty much at the mercy of OPEC and President Trump as to where we go from here. It all really hangs on whether we see an easing or a tightening of the current issues with China, Mexico, Iran, Venezuela and the agreement of OPEC+ production levels for the rest of this year. And when we have a US President who wants low oil prices and a strong stock market, that requires quite a bit of juggling of all these issues! :smiley:

When I went long today I did originally set my TP at 54.00 and would have got there. But since I had already decided not to hold positions over the weekend, I was happy to just take a small gain and have a w/e feelgood factor - I HATE losing on Fridays! Just another of my quirks! :wink:

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Thanks for the analysis and popping in. Always appreciate your input.

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I find this horrifying.

Am I going to have to become a sommelier of oil news?! I think my head might explode!!

image

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Some of us actually enjoy sitting in front of the computer trading 6-14 hours a day :smile: And we do still have lives, you know I get to drink every night still despite being a day trader.

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Well it certainly doesn’t make trading life and easier!

For example:
Thursday sees bearish EIA inventories data, Friday sees bearish NFP data, Friday also sees Mr Trump suspending new tariffs on Mexico… How did the markets finish on Friday…

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What I actually meant was:

If you’re trading the SPY (for example) and live in the US and on New York time (or thereabouts) you pretty much have the same working hours as you would have in a normal day job. And when the markets are closed they’re closed i.e. there’s no point in sitting staring at trades that you’re in when the market is closed. And if you’re fortunate enough to have a family then you get to spend normal hours with them doing whatever that normal family people do nights.

As far as having a life is concerned: you may want to check your thread. Sooner or later you’re going to make a mistake on those nights. Ask me how i know. And if you equate getting to drink and be drunk every night with having a life then you’re in worse shape than I am. And that’s saying something my good friend.

I read your posts every day and in detail. And to be honest: I don’t know whether I’m doing the right thing to leave you be or if I’m being a fraud by not giving you some home truths. And I know you don’t take criticism well but that applies to most people especially when they’re ahead. Once again: ask me how i know. And I don’t know which is worse i.e. your ending up hating me now because you probably will not agree with what I have to say and don’t want to hear it or you hating me in the future if this all goes pear shaped and I never opened my mouth.

But hey. Could very well be that we’re coming at this from two totally different angles. I’m here fighting for survival. If you wipe out: you can just fund your account again and start over and if it does come to that then hopefully having learnt a lesson or two in the process.

Anyway. Each to their own. We all have our own demons and problems I guess. For me: I think it’s time for me to start facing reality and tying up some loose ends. But I shall keep this thread going until the last for what that’s worth.

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Now moving on.

I figured out how I ended up with these two larger than should be positions. I was looking at the wrong spreadsheet when I started opening them. I was using the spreadsheet that I created to demonstrate position size and risk calculations based on a $100 000 account for the purposes of this thread as opposed to using the correct spreadsheet for my own account. Just wonderful is it not. Oddly enough: this bears out EXACTLY what I posted above although I had no idea at the time that I would be posting about working hours and the merits of trading ETFs and being in the USA. This was a direct result of having to find something else to do until the close and in this particular instance set an alarm to go off late at night to get up out of bed to maintain positions and open new ones. Basically was just not with it when I opened these positions and only realized when the losses started climbing too fast yesterday. Honest mistake I guess but doesn’t change anything. So I’m faced with some choices here which I will detail below.

The above being said though: it certainly just bears out the importance of position sizing based on risk as well as the normalization of all of the different instruments that you may be trading at once if you’re that way inclined. Were it not for my prize mistake: I would not be in a position on the S&P AT ALL as I had to withdraw capital at the end of last month and no longer have the capital to be able to scale in to a full size position if required. And my position on the Dow would be one tenth of what it is currently. Bottom line is that even if I closed everything out last night I would have been in a very nice (relatively speaking as always) overall profit. This as opposed to now carrying two positions which are almost exactly offsetting realized profits. And this before the open tomorrow night (and these markets are probably going to continue on up with an opening gap up to boot given that Trump has now put Mexican tariffs on hold).

So my choices are as follows as I see them:

  • Simply keep them open and ride them out but cannot scale-in any further. Obviously this means that if they continue on up then break even or better remains constant and could end up being a long way away. Could also mean holding these positions for a LONG time.
  • Immediately scale the positions down to what they should currently be and just leave them be i.e. still would not be able to scale-in and by rights should actually just close out the S&P position and realize the loss (which is going to be about half the of the profits realized last night).
  • Simply close them out at the open tomorrow night, realize the losses, and effectively wipe out all profits realized last night, and just start over (AGAIN).
  • An outlier possibility would be to hedge them if they continue to go higher (yes I am able to do that because my broker has a rather ingenious way of allowing this on certain instruments and these are two of them). Problem with this scenario is that with my now limited capital I will be hogging twice the margin on these two positions as I am currently thus limiting my ability to try and make money elsewhere.
  • Last but not least: just shut it all down. Withdraw my capital (which ironically will still be intact if I do this). Live a little for the next two or three weeks. Get some things in order. And call it (all) a day. Fact of the matter really is: no matter how good this trading system is and how well it’s done over the years I don’t have the capital anymore nor do I have time on my side (and this holds true no matter whether I’d made the mistake above or not). Quite ironic the way things have turned out.
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I take criticism quite well actually. I just don’t like being told what other people think should be how I should think, and what is possible or what is the “right” way to trade. Different styles work for different people. Just please don’t call sitting in front of the computer for hours on end BS. You might not enjoy it but a lot of people do.

Don’t worry about me too much Dale, worst case scenario when (not if) I blow up I’ll still have $7K, more than double my initial $3K, to restart. I’ve blown up over a dozen accounts over the two years, and whole you’ve been at it far longer than I have I’ve put in over 8000 hours of study and trading in, so I have a decent idea of what I’m doing. It’s actually touching that you care about me. Thanks friend, sincerely. Always glad to hear from you, even if I disagree. Actually I think you and I trade in a similar fashion in some ways, we’re just on different time frames, for example the India 50 short, I was just a few days too early and scaled in too much too early.

Hope your situation gets better soon. Here to help if you need anything.

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Dude. Were it not for the below I would have left the conversation at that.

I don’t want anybody reading your thread or mine and getting confused. In no way is our trading similar other than that we both (and I’m going to use a taboo phrase here) add to losing trades. But that’s where any possible similarity ends.

I know what a full size position should be, which is based on 5% of my capital, BEFORE I enter the trade. I then scale-in to such full size position based on clearly defined rules as per this trading system. And once I’m in such full size position: that’s it i.e. nothing more is added to the position. I hold that position no matter what until this trading system tells me to exit whether that be at a profit or a loss.

Moving on to India. Once again the only similarity is that both of our initial entries into the short would have been at the exact same price. But that’s where any similarities end. BEFORE my entering the trade I knew exactly where my second position would have been initiated (and note I’m talking about a grand total of TWO positions here) and I knew exactly where the final stop would have been so that had the trade gone against me the total loss on BOTH positions would have been no more than 5% of my capital.

I’m now not going to go into detail as to how your approach differs because a) that would be unfair and b) I know it will piss you off.

And yes I do care. But as you keep saying: i shouldn’t worry. I suppose if the truth be told: I’m more worried about you ending up with egg on your face than your losing your money. Put it this way: I know what that feels like and it’s worse than losing money. I made a total fool of myself on these very forums for years. And frankly: it’s probably the reason I stayed away here even although I’ve been trading on my lonesome for the last five or so years again.

Mind you. I suppose the money is also a factor. It’s like that £50 000 thread of the other day. That money is GONE before the first trade is even placed. ■■■■ me. Do you know what I could do with a £50 000 account??? That’s R92 500 ZAR at 5% per month MINIMUM. That is more than I’ve made, after taxation, on all of these huge property deals, monthly on average, for the last seven years. And I suppose in my situation: you just sit back and look at all of this ■■■■ and think to yourself what a waste. I sit here and ask myself well at what point do you call it quits. When you’ve got NO money left AT ALL (and for those that come along and cherry pick the last few posts on this thread: I’m not talking about trading losses) or what??? Believe it or not: it actually costs money to take yourself out. Well: maybe that’s not strictly true but there’s one or two things I need to take care of and that do cost money to finalize. And here I sit watching the equivalent of tens of (if not hundreds of) thousands of ZAR going down the tubes and for no other reason than that people think they’re special and different from tens of thousands of traders that have gone before them and they don’t need to follow any rules and that everybody that went before them wasn’t as good as them and they’re going to be different and don’t have to adhere to some basic principles and rules that if not adhered to guarantee failure. It really is just a question of how long it takes i.e. could be in two trades and it could be a long and protracted process of bleeding capital slowly to death.

Anyway. I know things are going well for you. And I really do sincerely hope that things continue to go well. But as you say: even if they go pear shaped it’s not the end of the world. If anything and in your case: I should be encouraging you to make the most of it and enjoy it and be happy and have fun while you’re doing it.

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Dale, breathe. Your post is quite different from how we usually interact. It’s like you are predicting that I will blow up. As I’ve said before. Even if that happens I have more than enough banked to restart.

Again, I thank you for your concern. It means a lot. But you’re not me and I’m not you. I can afford a blowup now and you can’t it seems. So let’s agree to disagree. My hard mental stop on DAX would be around $3K, which would be around 40% of the capital I’m using now, but only 1/6th of the total value of the money I’ve put up and made profits on. I can live with that.

In other terms, were I to lose $3K on the DAX shorts, that would be a loss of double what I made this week, or less than half what I made last week. These things are all relative.

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Also I never said we trade the same, just that there are some similarities. Twice we’ve seen double tops in two assets. We both scale in but your scaling in and mine are different, since I trade intraday I scale in more aggressively but the basic concept is the same. I am NOT claiming in any way that we trade the same, far from it. I always admit that my style is much riskier than yours, and hey I might even blow the account up on any given day.

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Nope. I’m not predicting that YOU are going to blow up. But I can almost guarantee that a new trader that comes across all of this WILL blow up if they attempt to trade the way you do.

That was the point of my just making clear the differences.

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I agree, most new traders who will try to trade the way I do will likely blow up their accounts. That’s why I’m always up front about losing a dozen accounts and over $30K the past two years when people ask. But then again I just chatted with a new trader yesterday who’s done very well on a small account. Who am I to discourage him? I’ve just done the usual reminders for him not to be too aggressive, but not tried to rein him in. Who knows maybe he’ll make me look like a weak trader. He did 400% in a week damn it, albeit on $200. Reminds me of how I was before. Except he’s withdrawn the $800 he made. Then turned the $200 left into about $500 this week, trading only ONE forex pair (GBPAUD).

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I don’t think I’m better than all the traders with more years if not decades of experience than me. After all my failures I’ve learned to let go of that ego. If you re read my journal I was trying to be very risk conscious. Then something clicked and my profits went way crazy consistently. For the short time the new account has been around anyway.

I have a belief that all these “wisdom” and rules traders have to follow are what keeps SOME traders from success. They prevent traders from discovering a style that aligns with their thinking. That’s the most important aspect of trading I think. Make your own system after trial and error, that suits how you think. Because when you’re an adult it’s so difficult to change how you think, much easier to accept that you are how you are and adapt to it.

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Like I said: none of posts were directed at you. But if you’ve noticed: you’re getting quite a following on your thread. Believe me: no new trader is going to take take heed of the fact that you’ve been at this for a few years and have blown up a few times and lost money. They’re only going to see what you’re doing now, how much you’re making on a weekly basis, and will choose to ignore the rest. I suppose MAYBE what I’m getting at is “don’t try this at home until you know what you’re doing” (type of thing).

But then again you know: since when did I become the self appointed voice of reason here. That’s a good point and something that only just occurred to me.