Crude Oil and oil markets

Yes. I am still a demo dog!

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Though I feel as if the the last few weeks have been great learning weeks.

Feel free to do so anyway! A different perspective always ways gives me another reason to examine my process and consider other options/strategies.

Looking forward to joining the conversation! Thanks for the welcome @anon46773462! I feel pretty “slick” already!!

KC

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We will cure you of the FOREX bug yet!!! LOL!!! Now you are thinking!!!

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OK! So that makes three of us! :sweat_smile:

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Looks like you are in for your curry after all!!!

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Jeepers. I see what you mean. Might just order a can of Coke with that curry!!! LOL!!!

Alas and as we have seen of late: the trading day is still young. May still be dry bread and water tonight.

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Yo.

See what you think of MY Oil analysis if you don’t mind:

https://forums.babypips.com/t/tps-time-price-scale-in-revisited/215204/253?u=dpaterso

(No curry and Coke. But only because I couldn’t actually be bothered!!! LOL!!!).

Here’s my take from a technical perspective on D/W charts … out on a limb here!! (this is like singing solo in front of a crowd!!)

Will continue trending up. If it can break 55, will be running into some resistance at 59 area. If it can break 60, I think it will have some running room to the high 62s.

If none of that happens something else definitely will.

KC

BTW… just finished watching the final season of The Shield starring @dpaterso as Micheal Chiklis playing Vic Mackey! Can’t believe he left Ronnie holding the bag!

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You should become an analyst for Bloomberg. They’ll pay you a fortune for analysis like that!!! LOL!!!

Yeh. Dunno. I thought there’d be another series. But alas not.

And I see the US and Russia are now driving into each other in the sea!!! LOL!!!

(And we’re going to get in trouble here too shortly i.e I see the “and other stuff” is no longer in the title of the thread and this is right up there with “other stuff”!!! LOL!!!).

Back to Crude Oil and Oil Markets:

Assuming nothing changes too drastically before the close tonight: I need one more up close and that’s a signal for me to begin shorting. And shorting I shall be i.e. everything seems to be nicely aligned.

Interesting! According to the Baker Hughes rig count, the oil rig count has dropped from 877 active rigs at the start of this year to a current level of 789…but in spite of that US crude production continues to climb by around 2 million barrel per day…

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A new type of weapon in town?

I guess not so new, but certainly a very blatant - and extremely effective - weapon:

Does Mr Trump’s threatened tariffs on Mexico represent a new application of this tariff weapon as a stick to punish countries (any countries) that do not behave in line with US requirements?

At least on this occasion it has worked exceedingly well as a win - win - win - win situation for Mr Trump:

The rapidly achieved agreement on the changes to Mexico’s northern and southern borders not only achieves a significant partial solution to a major and growing problem but will certainly (and deservedly) earn Mr Trump a few more political feathers in his cap as a fast, cheap and effective solution! - win

But what if agreement had not be achieved?

The US stock market would probably remain firm but additional fears would appear of slower growth globally. This only serves to weaken the other power regions of China, Russia and Europe relative to the US - win

Oil markets tend to look at growth globally rather than just in the US and so whilst the US equities could remain firm, weakness in other countries like China and Germany will push oil prices down - win

If oil prices remain weak then Russia’s growth prospects fall - as already recognised in the recent World Bank downward revision of Russian growth for 2019 - win

I suppose one could also add the increased revenues to the US govt from the tariffs, but whether that is a win or not depends on who actually ends up paying the tariffs, the exporters or importer/consumers…

So is the use of economic sanctions a fair weapon in “shepherding” wayward countries,even the entire globe? Maybe, maybe not - but be prepared for more of the same

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Lots of money to be made still in the future betting Trump’s going to continue acting like an ass****.

I think this is on topic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-08/donald-trump-unleashed-animal-spirits-and-then-he-crushed-them

(Hope you can open the link and read it. If not let me know and I’ll delete this post. Bloomberg on a new drive nowadays i.e. nothing for nothing).

I was reading that same article just a while ago (while visiting some friends! :joy:). Its a shook up world that’s for sure!

Yes i think so too! My only worry is with holding positions open too long. I hate seeing a good position start off fine only to see it reverse back later. But i don’t mind day trading at all - just a matter of how one is wired i guess! :joy:

Began reading the Bill Williams book “Trading Chaos” Everything was great until I had to count waves and my head hit the keyboard.

Does he discuss the Kame Hame Wave? LOL

its called kamehamehaa

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Kame hame wave in some dubs in Asia.

Hello.

Yeh. That’s what got me too. Impression I got was “well if this doesn’t work then try this and if this doesn’t work then try that (type of thing)”. You know. kind of a hit and miss approach. But as I’ve noted somewhere else: there’s some nuggets there if you strip the stuff down to basics e.g. Fractals (which really are nothing more than swing points but still) and the the "Jaw’.