No. Definitely not. The key word in your statement is the word “belief”. What I believe is of no consequence and, quite frankly, over the years has usually proved to be wrong. So I can give an OPINION on something as I have done. I can make my own OBSERVATIONS as I have done. But given my track record of both my opinions and observations being incorrect most all of the time: I cannot trade on such opinions or observations. Which, in my case, is the reason that this trading system (and there are indeed one or two others but that are not actively traded purely because the signals required are very few and far between on an annual basis) works for me. It is the only way I can trade profitably.
Let me also add to the above:
My personal shortcomings aside it’s not just me that gets it wrong. A prime example right now as I type this: i can go online to Bloomberg (as but one of thousands of sources of information) and for every ten articles I find that will tell me that the stock market is going to crash and that the world is headed for a recession I can find another ten articles arguing the exact opposite. Same with the price of Gold. So who is wrong and who is right??? Bearing in mind that each of those twenty analysts firmly believe that their calls are correct. Point is and were I to base my trading on such: it would, in my opinion, be nothing short of taking a punt with a 50/50 chance of being correct. You need far higher odds in this business to be able to profit from it. In my opinion anyway.
To directly answer one part of your question as to HAVE I traded (this) such a belief. The answer is yes. On more than one occasion. And it has always cost me dearly i.e. lost loads of money because of it. My Gold trade of last year is the latest, and hopefully the last, proof of this concept. Thanks to analysts and articles and whatever else: I allowed my bias to be skewed toward the price of Gold reaching $1 350 USD. And to my BELIEF system this made absolute sense. What happened??? I just happened to be long Gold as per this trading system. And it started turning down. My BELIEF system had me not only ignore signals from this trading system that were SCREAMING LOUDLY to get out of the long trade and to go short. To make matters worse: my BELIEF system gave me the gumption to not only ignore those signals but to add to the positions on the way down. The rest is history. Eventually I had to realize a huge loss when the level of pain on the position had become too much to bear. Sadly that loss resulted in me wiping out a huge percentage of profits that I’d made in the preceding months of the year. Not only that: but it resulted in my not being able to take any other trades while I was holding the position(s) (held from early June until sometime in August if memory serves me correctly) mainly due to fear of being wrong on yet another trade. Gold did, eventually, rise to $1 350 (and more I think) but for me it didn’t come in time. And it is not a mistake I intend making again. So were the opinions of the analysts correct??? That’s debatable. Matter of fact I’ve now, in just this past week, watched two other analysts making Gold predictions of epic proportions. Are they correct??? Maybe. Are they correct for NOW as in “take a long on Gold NOW”??? Maybe. Are they correct in that Gold MAY explode and go to the moon in the next few months??? Maybe. But there are a lot of maybes in those sentences.
I hope that explains all and is of benefit.