Hi Dale
Re the SMA filter, I have just had that function made switchable, so I can now run some tests with the SMA filter switched off.
Re the TP using pips or the as advertised system, I did test that and found the RSI exits to be very poor compared with what I could achieve with the optimised pip settings.
However, many howevers … as you point out - this is a limited data set, additionally, unlike the more than 7 million data points that Metatrader provides (free of charge) for download on forex pairs, it doesn’t support the indices in the same way. Unless I pay for it, the DAX30 tests have to reply on around 4500 data points and modelling accuracy of only about 49%. Compared to +7M data points and modelling accuracy of 90% for forex pairs, I might be wasting everyone’s time testing indices. Finally, and I’m still trying to find the answer to this, the tester requires one to set the spread manually. Generally, a setting of 3 pips is very close to reality if one uses the daily chart for trading forex pairs. But again, my lack of experience with indices catches me. I don’t even know if indices use a spread at all, or in the same way as with forex pairs, nor what a setting of 30 points (=3 pips) means. So that is another reason why the result achieved with the tester might be way off. Maybe you can clarify this?
Re finding a one-size-fits-all SMA, that would be amazing, but the results, especially considering all the howevers, suggest that this won’t be possible.
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Hello.
Would be interested to see how no SMA filter would affect your results. Curious is all.
TP thing worries me though. Reason: in my live trading experience with this thing if you don’t TP on RSI(2) signals then most times the trades go against you almost immediately. Sometimes they do turn and go to greater profits (and it’s also VERY true that sometimes and after you’re out of the trade on an as advertised TP the trade goes to the moon). And with reference to the trades going against almost immediately: sometimes that even results on you getting what would be new valid as advertised signals to get into another trade (assuming you were not already in one). Believe it or not: this is the “debauched methodology” that I used on Gold last year!!! Suffice to say it didn’t work. Badly. But alright: that was before the implementation of stops as we now have.
Indices also have spreads same as any FOREX pair and they’re also variable. Trick I’ve found: as it’s impossible to know at any given time what the spreads will be and when attempting to do any calculations that need spread data I wait for the weekend when the broker is closed. Those spreads that are then showing for each instrument are what I take as “the norm” for a spread at that broker on a particular instrument. Just a bit of useless information.
But I do have to keep reminding myself of two things here. As Sir Connors says there are many different ways to trade this (and which you yourself have pointed out to me of course). And I’m trying to stick to the one size fits all as advertised system as closely as possible as I don’t want to go down the optimization rabbit hole. So maybe take much of my input or thoughts with a grain of salt given that, as I say, we’re coming at this from two different angles. Both of which are profitable from what I can see anyway. So far as I can tell too: your gains on a single instrument are greater than mine would be but my shotgun approach over a basket of instruments being traded at any given time MAY compensate to a degree. I guess what I’m saying is that your (what appears to be on average) gains of let’s say around the 25% mark per annum seems to bear out my own results for the last few years on a per instrument basis. Obviously multiply that by ten or twelve different instruments (and include some of little opportunistic break the rules trades now and then e.g. those Tier 0 signals) and, well, there you have it. I THINK!!! LOL!!!
But. NICE NICE WORK Alistair.
If I may ask: what is your intention (finally) with this EA of yours??? You don’t have to answer publicly (if at all) if you don’t wish to. But I’m asking for a good reason.
I have actually been toying with the idea of starting forums again like those that were around back then. And also thinking about commercial value here for a variety of things. Fact of the matter is this: on just one thread alone I can account for tens of thousands of USD and GBP that have just been lost to trading and so-called courses etc. that have amounted to nothing for those traders. And here we have something that’s worth it’s salt (whichever way you slice it i.e. whether it be my approach or yours). So I’ve had a change in mindset. Why should I not be making something from this??? Everybody else is. And at least I know I’m not selling somebody down the river. And let’s face it: given my situation (and our exchange rate) $100 USD is a lot relatively speaking. Eight $100 USD and that’s my rent covered. See what I’m saying??? I suppose what I’m getting at is this: the system is WELL documented on this thread. So if somebody can work it out for themselves based on the information here well then I couldn’t be happier. But if not and further hand holding (or God forbid signals) are required: well, then, different story is the way I’m now starting to think. It wasn’t my intention at all when this all started here again. But in seeing a lot of these threads since starting to post here again: I’m starting to think I’m the idiot. Anyway and my point is: maybe forums what allow commercial content in which “anything TPS” is available (if you see what I’m getting at) would be the just the ticket. Not only for me and anyone else involved on the commercial side: but for traders as well. As usual: still a thought process and not quite finessed as yet.
And to what do I owe the pleasure of having my late Saturday night poster popping in here for a visit??? LOL!!!
Important note below (I think it’s important anyway).
I’ve been contacted asking if I’d be willing to provide trade signals for this system. My answer to anybody asking is as below.
Before we even get to trade signals I need to make it clear that you cannot trade this trading system with anything under $25 000 USD (or GBP or EUR) (preferably more and ideally double that and more). And this has nothing at all to do with leverage (or lack thereof). It has everything to do with position sizing and risk management. So it doesn’t matter whether you’re trading this at a bucket shop with 1 000:1 leverage or at a properly regulated broker with little to no leverage. The position sizing and risk management calculations remain the same. Now I know this is probably a lot of money for most (for most on these forums anyway) but it is what it is. I am not prepared to help by giving out trade signals when I know full well that you’re going to be overtrading an account because of limited capital and that the end result is therefore going to be disaster. Now I know the above is going to be slightly confusing as @Spudfan is testing with capital of $3 000 USD and thus far things seem to be working out. But for me personally and based on the instruments that this particular trading system was designed for and those that I trade: not an option And no offense to @Spudfan but trading with less capital than the amount I’ve calculated to be the bare minimum is really not something I recommend and will not sanction if I’m involved. So I’m guessing that this all being said: it’s going to exclude many. But for those where this is not prohibitive: I can assure you of profitability. And aside from anything else: decent capital means that you’ll actually be making profits that are worth your time and effort. Given the amount of time and effort involved not to mention inconvenience due to daily closing times: I don’t see the point of trading if your profit isn’t even covering the cost of you Internet connection let alone anything else. I’d therefore stick my neck out here and say that this is only for the serious trader.
As per my last post to @Spudfan I’m presently undecided as to how things should work here going forward. This system has been well documented and detailed on this thread. And anybody that knows anything about placing orders, following an indicator or two, and are familiar with a trading platform should have absolutely note difficulty in trading this system without my assistance. The question is: should my assistance be required on an on going basis then should such assistance still be given for free. I’m as yet undecided on the matter. But I have to say to myself: here is a trading system that ANYBODY can trade and it is, and has been for many years, profitable. Why should that not be worth something to me??? Chances are (and let’s call a spade a spade) most will end up here out of sheer desperation and that’s unfortunate. But is it really my problem??? I’ve paid my dues in this business believe me. So surely my time, experience, and expertise is worth something ESPECIALLY if it results in YOU being able to trade profitably for years to come.
Now I know this is going to be a VERY sticky topic. But I would REALLY advise that if you’re going to trade this trading system and need hand holding or ongoing assistance that you trade only with MY broker. There are a variety of reasons for this and let me clearly state that one of them is NOT that I will be compensated by my broker because they are NOT legally permitted to enter into ANY form of agreement with a non-professional and unregistered advisor or trader such as myself this as per the UK FCA regulations. In other words: I have no vested financial interest by making this suggestion. BUT: they are geared toward professional traders only and that’s just to begin with. In addition: sure does help if we’re looking at the same charts while I’m providing assistance. In addition: all position sizing and risk management calculations are based on their minimum lot sizes, tick sizes, and tick values. Last but not least: we would be looking at the very same and ALL IMPORTANT daily closing prices for each instrument being traded. It also means I can keep an eye on margin requirements as we progress.
Welp. Guess I gotta hop in here more days in the week! 
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Hi Dale
I support your idea of providing a paid signal service. Your long experience commands respect! But I would not restrict clients in any way. That’s their problem, not yours. Caveat emptor. Just place a clearly worded advisory at the top of your thread and refer all new users to it. And keep your own records of the fate of EVERY trade signal provided, so if you do get complaints or detractors you can publish every detail of it. Now there’s pressure for you!
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Thanks. Just what I need (more pressure).
Thanks for the compliment by the way (very much appreciated at this time).
My problem with possibly restricting people (clients???) is this:
I really don’t want to be instrumental in making people’s woes worse than they may already be. And there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that overtrading an account and in particular with this trading system (given the huge stops) will end in disaster. And it’s fine to say “buyer beware”. But people ignore that. All you have to do is take a quick squiz around these forums. Just about every person (newbie or otherwise) bangs on about position size and risk management and the rest. But I am prepared to almost guarantee that 99% of those very same people are not implementing it EVEN although they believe they are. Only when they too blow up then you see the threads saying “oh well I overtraded on this trade as for some reason or the other I didn’t implement proper position sizing and risk management” “but it won’t happen again”. You get the picture I’m sure.
I can just see it now. Somebody puts $1 000 USD in Oanda for example then starts taking input or advice or guidance or signals or whatever. Next thing: they’re heading for a margin call or their drawdown is 50% or more on a single trade. They’re not going to be able to filter in the fact that they were warned. End of the day: they’re still going to be pissed with me no matter what. And can you imagine what the fallout would be if using this same scenario I said “well you were warned so you’d better find another $1 000 USD to avoid being margin called” and then that same trade still ends up in a loss??? I mean: it doesn’t happen often but it does happen let’s face it. Nah. I can see the threads popping up here already. From my point of view: if you don’t have the capital then wait, borrow, or steal it!!! LOL!!! Or: form a pool of traders with one account with the required capital and share the profits. That’s another way I suppose. Nah. This business and anything and everybody connected with it have a bad name to begin with. And I must take some blame for that if you take into account my antics back in the day. I’d rather not spend another decade adding to the negativity and certainly don’t want to be instrumental in adding to peoples woes as noted.
IRONICALLY (and you’ll like this one): only South Africans would get away with only requiring R25 000 ZAR but only at ETX. Reason being is that ALL prices are quoted in ZAR on a 1-on-1 basis. Alright: the gains of course are proportionally less i.e. 10% of R25K is only R2.5K of course. But still. Put another way: were it not for this I’d not presently be trading let’s face it. But of course: only South Africans can open ZAR denominated accounts. But on the OTHER hand: a R500K ZAR denominated account at 10% or so??? Well that’s R50K per month give or take. Not bad work if you can get it let’s face it. And that WAS my intention with this money that I am SUPPOSED to be getting at some miserable point (which is just over half and given that my circumstances have changed as in way fewer monthly expenses it would be more).
You’re taking on too much responsibility for other people’s stupidity, Really! Just make money from them. But of course, warn them, advise them etc etc. But if they want to go for it on a $1000 account, let them do it. Then when they do bomb out you can help them use it as a learning experience. That’s already a huge step forward for the trading world out there, pit of vipers that it is. But your aim here is to make money, not fix the global stupidity problem.
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Errr… Have you SEEN the content and quality of some of the posts around here??? LOL!!! You think they’re going to be able to make sense of or accept my explanation as to why they wiped out??? LOL!!! Seems like a bit of a slippery slope from my point of view anyway!!! LOL!!!
And actually but on a serious note:
My intention would actually be “well do this, do that, when this little line closes here then do this and then do that and then go to bed and see you tomorrow evening” type of thing. Not to continue perpetuating this hypothetical and theoretical and regurgitated nonsense that we see every day. Call it maybe my own Turtle Experiment if you will.
Mind you: just had another thought on this. You know: I’ll also guarantee that if twenty people downloaded the TPS e-book that not all of them would trade profitably. Only thought about this when I mentioned the Turtles above. In some cases (sadly) it would actually be simply because they cannot grasp certain things but not because they’re dumb but just because they may be wired differently or this type of thing is not their thing. I mean I was just sitting here proofreading my post and thought about this. I can think of a few people that I personally know that would NEVER get it right without constant guidance and hand holding. Not because they’re dumb. Just not something they’d be able to maintain purely because of who they are and their makeup.
Put it this way: these vague posts get on my nerves nowadays to be honest. Just look at that thread where that dude is crying about having lost money and wasted money on training courses. Nothing specific or concrete given on that entire thread. All just the usual same old same old. The way I understand it: the dude has tried all of that vague stuff and the result is as he has posted. I look at some other posts. “Oh well: I look for resistance and supply and demand”. Who are these people fooling. Supply and demand from a CHART??? Nonsense. The only supply and demand that exists is if you’re getting raw data from an exchange like the NYSE and you’re getting stuff like tick volumes and whatever else. And even THAT I MYSELF am not TOO good at gauging after all of this time. But anybody that’s been sold the idea that it’s evident from looking at a chart has been sold down the river. Same with volume. AND the list goes on. And on. And on. LOL!!!
(I sure am sticking my neck out here am I not!!! LOL!!! These markets had better tank seriously!!! LOL!!! Otherwise I’m going to have BOXES of egg on my face!!! LOL!!!).
True. @dpaterso, the leaders of the free world and even the not so free parts have been trying to do that from November 2016. and THEY haven’t been able to fix-it!!!
KC
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So THAT’S the problem!!! LOL!!!
(Edited. Never mind. Wrong gas.)
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Morning.
My late night / early morning posts on other threads aside: this just an on topic update (being purposely posted before time):
I’ve ended up closing positions as and when they’ve turned to small profits (this without waiting for the proverbial RSI close). I’ve also cancelled any pending orders on stocks (will update those threads shortly). Unfortunately I’ve had to draw on capital some and with my leverage of lack thereof: I’m just not comfortable leaving my you-know-what wide open for tomorrow. From what I’m seeing and hearing: this is one of the most watched Fed. decisions for a good while now. And who knows that’s going to happen. Certainly not me. Also and given that fact that these positions have been open for a good while now: the interest costs have started to add up so I’ve basically covered those.
I need to stress the following though:
Were it not for the (my) current situation there is absolutely no way in hell that I’d have closed anything unless signaled to do so. I’ve been trading this thing long enough to know that one of two things is going to happen: either the markets are not going to like what happens tomorrow and they will tank and that would have resulted in some pretty decent profits (relatively speaking of course) or they’re going to rally in which case I’d have had scale-in opportunities (bearing in mind that no single position other than Apple was a fully scaled-in position). After that: we’d go down again and that would have resulted in an increased profit. Absolute worse case scenario is that small losses would be incurred simply because price has moved too far up in order for an RSI(2) close to result in a profits. VERY rarely does this happen though. But when it does it is what it is and it’s not profit killer and neither is it mind altering event.
So there you have it.
Current open positions now are the S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, and Apple (all short).
Guess I’ll be recalculating position sizes once these trades are closed and will then see what’s tradeable and what’s not. But fair to say I’m reaching an inflection point i.e. sooner rather than later the situation will be that unless I’m prepared to break any and all of my risk management and position sizing rules there will be no trades unfortunately. Bottom line: not prepared to do that. That is simply how adamant I am when it comes to risk management and position sizing. And that should be a lesson to some i.e. this coming from an experienced trader and one with an extremely accurate and consistent trading system and methodology. One could be forgiven for thinking that given this: one could afford to increase risk or ignore it totally as the odds of profitability are indeed hugely stacked in my favor based on consistency over a long period. Not the case. The end result would end up being the same. Maybe not this time around. Maybe not even the next time around. But the day will come. And the real point is: given what I’ve noted what chance does anybody stand with a half-baked semi-profitable low accuracy trading system with sketchy to no risk management, incorrect position sizing, being under capitalized, and trading with huge leverage. No chance is the correct and only answer.
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In case anybody is wondering…
Facebook Wants Its Cryptocurrency to One Day Rival the Greenback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-18/better-than-bitcoin-facebook-unveils-libra-cryptocurrency
Just announced.
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Why??? What are you selling??? LOL!!!
Libra! Or do you own any crypto at all?
Dale, I’m thinking of finding a new forex trading broker (that supports MT4). Apart from all the usual financial and regulatory due diligence considerations, as a South African living in South Africa, can you make any recommendations or suggest some guidelines for making a decision (for another Saffer)?
