Rather befitting too that Leonardo DiCaprio is the narrator!!! LOL!!! I’m sure that was by design though.
What’s happened to all of those houses that were built though??? Saw some pretty darn decent looking homes just standing empty. You should know not???
Figured I’d better post here lest this thread die a slow death.
Nothing at all to report.
Now the markets are waiting for something ELSE to happen.
I don’t actually ever recall sitting on positions this long to be honest. Not with this trading system anyway. Real PIA. And because I’m short: it’s costing me money.
One thing that may be worth noting at this point though:
Thanks to these two oversized positions (which frankly I don’t see closing at a profit unless these markets tank pretty substantially) it has become extremely apparent to me that you cannot trade multiple instruments if you are not using some method to normalize the position sizes across the instruments. What will happen is simple: and instrument that is more volatile will make a bigger profit or loss. Less volatile instruments the contrary. End result: the more volatile instruments will exacerbate profits or losses.
Moreover (and something I really didn’t think about until now):
My theory of keeping these two big positions open and simply saying that instead of opening new positions on other instruments I would simply compensate for my fuckup by increasing the risk on these two big positions is the same thing. It’s not. Because these two positions are bigger than they should be: if they close out at losses (which at this point seems to be a very likely scenario) they will wipe out most, if not all, of any profits that I’ve made this month (and there have been some on other instruments). Which again demonstrates the validity of my point made in the previous paragraph and not to mention implementing risk based position sizing and concentrating on what you’re doing.
Anyway. This is both frustrating and infuriating (positions going nowhere). Also for sure and once again goes to show the difference between doing this full time (and having nothing else to do to boot) and doing it part time. For the past few years and part time: trading has been pretty much “set and forget”. Check what’s going on before the close (or even the next morning) and chill about it. But now sitting and watching and waiting and with baited breath: not the way to trade this trading system that is FOR sure.
I can’t trade this way no matter what the situation. Actually I can wait … but not in front of the scrreen. I have to walk away or I drive myself bonkers. That’s why I had to go to the 1H, 4H, D and now I am looking more at the 4H, D, W & M. The other reason was a week or so ago when all my open trades totalled -32 and the next morning were more than - 3100. rrrrrrg.
I am a pretty good artist but a slow draw! 
@dpaterso, you seem to be a great analyst especially in the post mortem. Seems like you are taking this ??? Williams strategy and really making it your own IMHO.
Always great to read your posts. You’re like master PO and the pebble from Kung-Fu!
“When you can snatch the pebble from my hand it is time for you to trade.”
KC
Well.
Thanks for the compliments (well I THINK they were compliments anyway!!! LOL!!!).
CONNORS!!! CONNORS!!! LOL!!! Williams and Wilder on other threads!!! LOL!!!
Yeh listen. Even I’m surprised at the fact that I’m able to sit on my hands and do nothing. If nothing else that’s different from when I started out. Doesn’t make me feel any better though I’ll tell you.
But that’s why I’m looking at pivots AGAIN. I’ve made some little profits in the last week using them (kinda sorta loosely detailed on the at other thread about pivots). Were it not for that I think I too would have gone bonkers by now. But even those trades are supposed to be “set and forget”. Only exciting part is that they’re at least over in a day one way or the other.
As for this system: I’ve never really had cause to have sleepless nights. And with my position sizing now: never gonna happen (at least not because I’m worried anyway).
But yeh. I think I’ve hit the nail on the head really. Always had other stuff to do so it really was a matter of doing what needed to be done before the close (or in the morning) and which usually takes no more than a half hour and that was that. But I really don’t remember no having some type of action every other day. Maybe it’s just my mind playing tricks. Always possible.
ALL of the above being said though:
Just a heads up that I may very well detract from this on those two oversized positions. And here’s why:
There are any number of trend following systems that should be able to keep me in these trades. Even one or two of your garden variety indicators would suffice really (something as basic as a MACD histogram could even do the trick). In addition: I’m already in and have already resigned myself to the potential losses if price reached my soft stops (which are so far away they’re on another planet). Could be Wilder’s Swing Index System (maybe time I dusted that off). Could even be Williams’ Fractals. Not sure at this point.
In addition (and here I hope I’m not digging a big hole for myself):
All very well that the S&P has reached its all time high. But I’m constantly hearing this buzz in the background that this rally is not sustainable based on numerous factors. The one that stands out for me is this: Earnings Season is about to start. And something that makes sense to me is the fact that there is indeed a global slowdown. So it doesn’t really matter whether Big Red and his Chinese Counterpart get a room and kiss and make up (or worse) i.e. that may only cause a blip on the radar screen. The moment earnings come out and disappoint or are revised down is when you start seeing movement downward. Matter of fact and now that I think about it: it’s only when Earnings Season starts and while there’s a constant barrage of numbers being released that there is indeed decent movement in the Indices (forgot about that little oddity). Usually in that last month of the quarter things end up like this (the odd market moving Tweet and temper tantrum aside).
So. Better I disclose the path forward on these two positions beforehand lest I get accused of talking nonsense when I close out for R1M profit but which could not have come from this trading system!!! LOL!!!
P.S.
Oh there you go. Now Japan is now in the crosshairs!!! LOL!!! As the Bloomberg anchor just stated: “The President has obviously now decided that things are too quiet around the world”. I think he’s just bored like me. I post here. Big Red Tweets.
Well that’s interesting:
Without going into great detail: we have a divergence between the Dow and the Dow Transports (which is basic Dow theory). Only the railroads are bucking the trend but this is apparently more due to cost cutting exercises.
And FedEx reports after the bell tonight.
Well. It is with deep regret that I announce the following:
I do believe that the two oversized trades / positions that I have (short the S&P and the Dow) with the TPS are quite possibly the worst two trades that I have experienced with the TPS (not counting my own mess ups here for which I cannot blame the system e.g. Gold last year). Unless the total bottom fell out of these markets (and I’m talking moves down of Biblical proportions e.g. the financial crisis) there is just no way that these two trades could close at profit. As I type this: RSI(2) is already below 30 but these things have already traded to S2 already today. Best case scenario is that they bounce so that RSI(2) doesn’t close below 30 tonight and then tomorrow they continue the move down. But even if that happened: they would still be losses. And it has nothing at all to do with the fact that these are oversized positions i.e. they were nevertheless “by the book” trades insofar as entry is concerned.
ODDLY enough though: I’m short the NASDAQ as well. And if that closes at or near where it is right now then it could very well be at BE or better. Reason being is that if you take a good look at the NASDAQ: the moves up were not as extreme.
Anyway. I do realize that there are some losing trades. I’m just no used to then is all I’m afraid.
BUT (and here is where it gets interesting):
Had I been using the supercharged method of entry and scaling in: different story entirely. Trades would have closed out at profit no question. So I think that pretty much settles that moving forward.
Anyway. As noted: I’m not closing these trades based on this system now. Sorry. It is what it is. And I got rent to pay.
Well. The markets evidently do listen to me!!! LOL!!!
Closed out the NASDAQ and Netflix at pretty decent profits (especially on Netflix). Admittedly I could have held onto them longer but when I looked they’d both traded to S3 and paused so figured that would be that. But as things stand now: they’ve both barrelled through S3 and are currently trading at around S4. Where they will close remains to be seen. If they retrace enough so that RSI(2) does not close below 30 then I’ll just short them again I guess.
So other than the Dow and the S&P I’m out for now.
And another day like today tomorrow??? I may be making excuses for my post above!!! LOL!!!
Just keep repeating to yourself:
“I’d rather be out of a trade wishing I was in than in a trade wishing I was out…”
“I’d rather be out of a trade wishing I was in than in a trade wishing I was out…”
“I’d rather be out of a trade wishing I was in than in a trade wishing I was out…”
Netflix and the NASDAQ just about fallen off of a cliff since I closed!!! LOL!!! Oh MAN!!!
This is Microsoft (which I missed). This thing has traded to like S6 or something like that!!! LOL!!!
Microsoft Corp.
With all this stawk tawk I’m gettin’ a little antsy!!
I have an account with BOA/Merrill. I can’t stand their platform but again if I can get used to it for the set it and forget It, might be worth a shot. I won’t be day trading. Perhaps Dow, some ETFs, an option or two.
MMmmm.
You’ve got me thinkin’!!
KC
BTW, finished Inside Job. I had seen that before but what a great doc. Did I post the vimeo link to the French Doc about Goldman? Oh man! It’s all money and government - I mean power.
You must be joking??? And you’re arsing about here with spot FOREX and what not???
See. I knew it. No excuse for you.
And plaform, schmatform. You’d (most would) hate my platform. But it does what it’s supposed to do. It’s there to place orders. Nothing more and nothing less.
You did (post the link) above. Weekend watching.
You have to give me a break!! I’m in recovery! A 12 step stupid traders program!
2013 - didn’t know what I didn’t know and was a text book “lose it all!!” And it was a lot for me! My much better half had given me permission but wasn’t happy with the null set 6 mos. later.
KC
On a serious note:
I’d love to see their platform. For the sake of interest. Any screenshots or stuff like that???
It’s mind bending how money and power work … all the same players!
If I get on tonight I’ll see what I can grab.
When I was trading options back then I was using Thinkorswim. I liked that platform.
KC
Thanks. Would be nice. Don’t go to too much trouble. Just curious really. That’s “real deal” you know.
See what instruments are available and maybe a chart or something???
roger. will do.
DUDE!!!
I see THE LOT there my good man!!!
Doesn’t look too shabby to me let me tell ya!!! LOL!!! Even watched the video!!!
