TPS (Time, Price, Scale-in) Revisited

I see FedEx AND Micron Technology reporting after the bell.

Nice looking charts those. Both set up for longs. But will not take the longs. Spineless. Could place limit buy orders so if they gap down tomorrow… Dunno. Just thinking aloud.

Forget it. Margin requirement on a fully scaled in position just too much. Pity. Well. Not too much as in I COULD. But I’d have to be real selective as to what else I trade.

Just to change the topic a little, I have been running an expert adviser (EA) on a demo account with about 28 different fx charts. It is running TPS by the book except for the emergency stop that is built into my EA - it closes all trades if a candle closes on the wrong side of the 200 SMA.

Starting capital on 10 June was $722. Currently $796. So banked profit in 11 days of full auto trading is $74, or 10.25%.

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You want to be careful with this. Carry on like this and I’ll have to stop telling people it’s impossible to make big gains with an EA!!! LOL!!! Probably even have to change my stance on spot FOREX because of you if this carries on!!! LOL!!!

Well done Sir. I’m pleased to hear it. We’ve been at this a while let’s face it.

Thank you, but it’s nothing to do with me - it’s running totally unattended.

Here’s the “bottom line”:
image

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You don’t have to be modest. Take a bow. It’s the only EA that I know of for this system to begin with. You drove that. Nothing to do with me or even the book for that matter.

Just dusted off my merrilledge roth ira.

Spoke with kevin at ME/BOA he was wondering if I was going to consolidate my additional 45K to meet the 50K to use marketpro. I inquired about the 15 trades a 1/4, and he thought I had to “prove” myself on the free version and then get approval for marketpro at the beginning of the next quarter. I just might go visit the local branch tomorrow.

KC

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@Spudfan,

Are coding this for MT4?

KC

Yes, this is for MT4.

Hey, what do you know! the EA placed a DAX30 trade, first one for me. And it’s a long.

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I’m happy for you. And I hope it’s wrong. Because I’m short at the daily pivot!!! LOL!!!

Nice thing about this trading system:

With most others we could be either right or wrong. With this: price could very well go down, I TP, you scale-in, we’re both good.

Only reason I’m not in your same trade is a) I didn’t even LOOK so missed it and b) I’m still short the Dow and S&P which I want to get out before I start going wild again. Those two oversized positions are hogging margin.

Good Luck!!

I’m witnessing battle of the Titans!!

KC

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I have a cyborg fighting for me. The Titan has no chance!

He’ll be bahk!

image

@Spudfan.

No profit yesterday on the DAX??? LOL!!! Don’t worry. Me either with pivots (was the only loss I took yesterday).

Anyway. Given the above: it’s still a valid long trade. So I will place a limit buy order (Tier 1) at the close of the day before yesterday. You never know. I’ll look at any other trades that I’ve missed too.

Unfortunately I’ve been neglecting this system due to my pivot point experimentation (and whatever else has come of that now). Not good. Not good at all. And I need to start watching myself.

I also have a BAD confession to make and this only occurred to me when I opened my eyes this morning:

I cannot help but get the feeling that I’ve now YET AGAIN suffered a relapse because of these two oversized positions that I made mistakes on when opening them. Fact of the matter is that I’ve let emotions creep into this as in if I realize the loss on them as has ALEADY been indicated by the TPS then that would effectively wipe out every bit of profit that I have made since I started posting here in May. And this is a problem deluxe. I’m acting like a ■■■■■■■ newbie on these two trades. Now while it is true that that could be valid short trend trades as per one or two other trading systems: I cannot help but get the feeling that I’m just looking for any excuse I can find to not have to realize these two losses. I don’t now what’s going to happen this weekend. For all I knows Trump & Co. could get a room and have the most passionate nights over the weekend and comes Monday morning the US and China are the best of mates. What then??? And then again I’ve let crap filter into these two trades. Bloomberg. In my mind it’s just on in the background and mostly I only really listen to when they talk about individual stocks and earnings. but you know what: it’s creating a bias. And it’s creating a short bias. And it’s played into my holding these two positions and ignoring the TPS signals. Now this sounds VERY familiar does it not. Alright: these trades MAY go in my favor and these markets tank. But that’d be pure luck on my part and certainly nothing to write home about or sing my own praises. Point is: this rubbish creeps up on you without you even knowing it or realizing it. So. I need to think about these two trades seriously now. What a damn stupid mistake to make. Were it not for this I could have easily just taken the two losses the other day, they would have been minimal, and I’d be nicely up for the last two months or so. Not good at all.

I have also adjusted my risk based position sizing (again). Using 5 x ATR(10) is ridiculous it now seems to me. It’s having a severe impact on position sizing and therefore profits. So I’ve decreased it back to the recommended multiplier of 3 and I’ve also decided to use Wilder’s standard 14-day ATR.

Oh well. Onwards and upwards (well: hopefully downwards for now).

Hi Dale, I’m glad you said it and not me, but I have noticed a lot of emotion creeping into your posts recently. It comes from being under financial pressure and needing to make profit, but we all know where that leads. Why not trade mechanically - set and forget? I should add that the emergency stop based on price closing the wrong side of the MA seems from my backtesting to be a good idea. Perhaps you could consider that, as having no stops at all, in spite of that being by the book, just doesn’t sit well.

But let’s hope Trump does something to help rescue those big losses. In my case, my demo account expired last night so I can’t tell you what the outcome of those trades is. As I am going away for a month (not on my luxury yacht and not paid for with my trading earnings :unamused:) I have decided to leave everything as is and get back to it in August,

Good luck all.

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Oh thanks. NOW you tell me that you noticed!!! LOL!!!

Believe me: I’m not one of those people that will take offense when somebody criticizes what I’m doing. SO next time: feel free!!! Please do matter of fact.

I already implement those stops. But I posted about this up above somewhere. Because I messed up with the position sizing I thought well it makes no difference i.e. I’ll just increase the percentage of capital risk in direct proportion to the increased lot sizes. In other words: I figured well seeing as I’m usually trading anywhere between six and ten different instruments then just cut down on the number of instruments being traded and increase the possible loss if the stop was reached on these two positions. Only AGAIN occurred to me afterward that this was a ridiculous idea and is NOT the same thing at all. It would only be the same thing if I was stopped out on ALL of the other six or ten different instruments with the correct position sizes. And that just simply doesn’t happen. OR if all of the other position sizes on the other six to ten instruments were being traded with the same lot size.

So yeh. Nice ■■■■ up. But of course: only have myself to blame. Too busy trying to finesse this thread at the time and therefore not concentrating.

■■■■ me.

Something just spooked the markets and I mean BIG time. And nothing at all on Bloomberg either.

If I were not such an honest chap I’d delete my posts above of today and save myself the embarrassment i.e. all things being equal and if these down moves continue not only will my TBPS trades (ostensibly pivots) hit their TPs and at some REALLY decent profits but these two big 'ol TPS shorts may even close in profit themsevles!!!

Wonder what happened.

WHAT A DUMB ■■■■■■■ QUESTION!!!

It was Trump on his Twitter Machine slating China, Japan, and India.

And I was watching the place land in Japan on Bloomberg so he must simply have gotten bored during the flight and sent those Tweets out while waiting to disembark. ■■■■ me. Imagine what would happen if he had to fly cattle class!!!

Now that’s strange.

Could have been something else too.

The Dow has tanked big time and TP hit (pivots). But the S&P and NASDAQ are still up since the open.

DAX also trying to stay afloat.

Perhaps trading with that tweet twerp out there is a bad idea.

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Well he ain’t going anywhere let’s face it.

But I would say THIS:

Anybody that is trading with fixed hard stops will get burned that is FOR sure.

Just take a look at that chart on my pivot points thread!!!

And this ■■■■ goes on every day.