The cyborg expired 
Dale,
Are you in better standing with that move in the market?
KC
Good morning all.
Nope. I’m in exactly the same standing right now as I was yesterday. And to make matters worse I’m now faced with an interesting dilemma. I have just pulled a report and as things stand right now: if I closed these two messed up positions I’d be just slightly better off than break even overall since I started again in May. So currently up 4662.53 and if closed now the loss would be 4204.00 on the dot.
AND YOU KNOW WHAT (DECISION MADE WHILE TYPING THE ABOVE):
I’ve just done the most difficult thing in the world but nevertheless done the right thing. I just closed them and cancelled all orders outstanding. Done. So capital intact plus the grand sum of 308.53 profit made in just under two months!!! ■■■■!!!
But you know what: too bad. If these markets tank for whatever reason: suppose I’ll be left feeling very disappointed. But as things stand now: there’s a 50/50 chance of them going either way. And I keep thinking of that saying: “I’d rather be out of a trade wishing I was in than being in a trade wishing I was out”. Fact of the matter: these trades were incorrectly sized and my core system already signaled for me to get out of them the other day. Were it not for the incorrect position sizing: the losses would have been negligible and I’d be sitting on a nice overall profit. But holding onto them was no different from what I did on Gold last year. And I refuse to take another hit like that. My personal financial situation aside at the moment: I’d even be able to stomach the loss. I’d not be able to handle the fact that I repeated an old pattern of behavior. Not after all of this time an effort. So. I live to fight another day and start again both with my capital and a sense of satisfaction that I’m not enslaved to this business. Moreover: I’m certainly no “noob” at this. And I should know better. And as it turns out: maybe I do know better finally.
Well done!! That was brave, but you did the right thing and you’ll take confidence from this. Big step forward. Don’t look back at what might have been, you already know why it went wrong.
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JUST DON’T F…ING DO IT AGAIN!!
(Says he to himself as much as anyone else )
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Hey. Thanks Alistair. Very nice words and I appreciate them very much.
As it turns out: it wasn’t five minutes after I cut them that the markets started going up. And they’ve stayed up. But this was pure luck i.e. I cannot claim to have any insights or expertise here.
You obviously wrote this before I added the nice polite bit in CAPS!!
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Nah. I’m being very careful now.
But isn’t it just the psyche again huh!!!
I messed up because I had edited a spreadsheet for this thread to show lot sizes for a 100K account. At the time I think I had 25K in the account. So when I was placing orders before the close that night I didn’t realize what I was doing. Until a day or two later when the losses started growing way too quickly in relation to the other positions that were open. But the mere fact that I made a mistake actually wasn’t the problem and could be forgiven let’s face it. The problem came in when the losses were already past my 5% of the account. And at THAT point is where the problem kicks in i.e. the logic is “oh well it’s already past my risk percentage so now let’s see what I can do to get it back down to below my risk percentage and THEN I’ll close”. THERE is the problem. Right there. Screwed up huh!!! LOL!!! And if I was such a hot shot: I would have cut those losses the moment I realized the mistake, no matter how big at the time, and moved on. At the time they were about half of what I wrote off this morning. Anyway. It is done. Does feel good though in some screwed up way.
Nope. I appreciate ALL the comments!!! LOL!!!
These are words of Wisdom!! TX!
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Not easy at first. But sit and watch enough losing trades in, what, fourteen years??? LOL!!! Gets easier by the day.
Well. And not that I have the expertise to make calls on market direction. But sure seems to me that everyone has decided to play nice. For now. Just watching the live news conference with Mr. Trump from Osaka. All sounds extremely accommodating and friendly. For now.
I would have to say: the decision made yesterday was a good one. Maybe the markets don’t see things the way I do. But I do know for sure I’d be very uncomfortable holding two huge short positions on the S&P and the Dow right about now. And as somebody else said the other day: these markets are looking for any excuse to go up. Maybe this weekend is just such an excuse. If not: too bad for me. But I can live with that.
Trump, Xi Hit Pause on Trade War Again for Talks on Lasting Deal
And you know what: if nothing else here’s proof of what the markets were hoping for. Below is a 1 minute chart of the S&P 500 going into the close. Note that last thirty minutes or so. Ironically I was trading this last night with my pivots experiment and evidently got out of the short(s) in the time (but that’s another story for my other thread).
S&P 500 1m 28062019 2300
Wow. The Futures just opened 11 minutes ago. The Dow gapped up 160 points and is currently up 245 points. S&P too. NASDAQ gapped up right to R3 for crying out aloud. All I can say is THANK ■■■■ I made the decision I made on Friday otherwise I’d not be too happy right now that’s for sure.
Nice call!
Cue the band… “You’re back in the saddle again!”
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Jeepers. The Nikkei is up 465 points / 2.19%. DAX: +150 / 1.21%.
By the way @Spudfan.
I’m sure you’re still away but maybe check in from time to time.
As I sit here patiently waiting (and waiting) (and waiting) for trades to present themselves I’ve been looking at how the last short trades could have been improved upon (no matter that those two were oversized it i.e. they closed at losses no matter what). And I’ve been thinking about this scaling in again. Here’s my thoughts.
The as advertised system would have you scale in 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10.
The supercharged version proposed would have you scale in 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 = 15.
But here’s what I’m thinking:
It’s that last tier (tier 4) that you want to whack out of the ballpark because at that stage the trade has gone against you for at least four signals. So I was thinking that maybe it’s then prudent to stick to the as advertised version up until tier 3 and then pile on the difference at tier 4. So it would then go something like this:
1 + 2 + 3 + 9 = 15.
Your thoughts???
Essentially it affects nothing if the trades run their proper and usual course of about two or three days i.e. doesn’t change anything. But it’s that very last tier where things are supposedly seriously stretched in your favor.
Good thing though:
If these markets manage to say up today then at least and finally some entry signals to start shorting this lot with this trading system.
Doesn’t exactly fill my heart with joy knowing already I’m going to be sitting here in the freezing cold placing orders tonight. But hey: nobody said this was easy!!! LOL!!!
For the sake of posterity and in just looking through all of these charts and from hearing the banter (noise) in the background on Bloomberg:
What’s the bet the NASDAQ makes a new high (could even be today) and we tank pretty badly after that???
Well.
Finally some signals again.
Short the S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, and DAX just before the close last night. Tier 1 entries. These trades will be managed at detailed yesterday i.e. 1 + 2 + 3 + 9 = 15 (obviously these lot sizes adjusted as per risk based position sizing for each instrument). I’ve decided at this time for forego trading every instrument known to man at this time and stick to only these four. Main reason being is that with that pivot trading system of mine I’ll be going long and short (whatever is required) on these very same instruments at any given time during the course of these particular trades so margin requirements become an issue i.e. with that pivot trading system I go all in (full sized positions) on all trades.
Anyways. Let’s go!!!