some intra-day trading
2 shorts … 2 longs
i was at my computer all morning trying to practice VSA concepts on the EU
[edit]
hey pete. thanks again for all you contribute here. serves as a wonderful guide and reference point!
responding to your last post about not enough supply… are you seeing that accross the board or do you have specific currencies your focused on at the moment?
…and so it did, giving a text book fake break to the down side. 1hr stopping volume, 5 min agreed and pushed. Entry at 15:01 gmt for me, E/U. The market hunted long stops at 1.3078…sometimes SM has nothing better to do but cause trouble lol.
edit: messy, rangy day but grabbed a few pips off that.
Sorry, when I’m not specific I’m referring to E/U usually…or generally the USD pairs I follow…which are E/U A/U G/U. Often u/cad and u/chf will be correlating in reverse, but I rarely trade those pairs.
This one wasn’t far off either…
Bob! I’m going to keep my promise…I’ll make a video today and post it here.
Been wandering about that. Was starting to remind me of a certain someone who like to make people wait for his videos lol.
Hi Pete, what is that moving average indicator that you use?
It’s simply the 50 EMA. The colors signify price being above or below it.
…you can search on forexfactory.com where people uplaod indicators. Search MA dots or MA in color.
Great video man thanks for that.
Of course now I must bring a question. Toward the end of your video and you were talking about the EUR/JPY trade you took you show where price hit stopping volume (biggest volume of the day) then price dropped and then retraced. On the retrace was your entry as price hit resistance and the 618 fib. Ok good but the volume you point out was not a really large volume candle but was larger than the rest at that point in time. My question is (sorry it is going to be hard to explain unless you were sitting here looking at me point at the chart so there may be more questions behind this one) How did you consider that a high volume bar. Do you consider when confluences line up and volume has broke the previous bars high good enough for an entry.
The main issue I tend to have with volume (that hopefully you can help on) is Lets just say price moves up into an area I am looking to short but I am waiting for stopping volume. I see volume keeping higher but has not broke above the rest of the volume bars yet. Price will reverse and go down before volume breaks the previous bars. Now I tend to be afraid to pull the trigger as I do not chase price. Or do you think I am nit picking a little to much.
Sure hope I was clear (I doubt it) for you to understand what I am trying to ask. I would post a chart to ask but that will be hard to do as the candle and volume bars have closed by then. Maybe a video might help. I am mainly asking that in real time how do you know when we will reach a high volume bar. To me when I have a level lined up I tend to see price hit it early in the open of the candle then reverse. When it reverses volume still climbs but price is no long in my entry zone. I know even volume tend to be lagging and I just may be trying to go about volume the wrong way.
Hopefully you’ve watched all my videos because there are details that are too much to get into in this post about my use of volume.
OK, defining High Volume. I look at the previous few days high volume points to define what “high volume” is, in combination with a significant rise in the current days volume. By that definition, it’s high volume. If it is at a point where I expect a reversal, that’s a good indication that it will turn BUT I don’t trade off that alone when it comes to the standard VSA entries.
Basically, picking top and bottoms at their extreme is going to limit the use of VSA for you. High volume (in this case pros selling into an up move) is only part of the vsa setup…the other part is to see a lack of buying (imbalance in supply/demand) …plenty of videos on that.
The best thing I can recommended for what your trying to do is to use the 5min chart, since waiting an hour can bring price far from the top/bottom. Take a look back at the usual s/r, fib turning points on the 5 min and see how volume behaves when it turns, versus when it doesn’t. Also, zoom way out on the 5min to compare to previous couple days 5min and get perspective on volume you are currently seeing.
The 5 min is what I’m looking at while I wait for the 1hr to close. High volume, or at least a significant increase, should be seen at the extreme high/lows before turning. It’s not a method is itself, but is a point of confluence with your other tools. If I don’t see relatively high volume on the 5 min at the right places, I wouldn’t call it a valid VSA setup regardless of the 1hr, so it is that important to me. Let me know how that works for you.
Thanks Pete thats some great insight. I have not watched all your videos but will now and get back to you as I am sure I will have more questions. I have watched most of them. I might have missed some things so back to video 1. There is something here and its made of gold. But before you can get paid for the gold one must first start with a shovel and dig it up. Time to break ground
Thank you Pete that video was very helpful it cleared up a few things for me.
Like the head and shoulder pattern what other patters do you find give you the highest probability?
Cheers,
Tave
Pete, if you haven’t seen this I have a feeling you may like it. Answers your question from the traderoom which ammused me “who ARE you?”
You’re welcome, good to hear. The tools listed in the video are [I]it[/I]…along with VSA and experience.
That sums it all up. It’s the template for a healthy and predictable market. If other things are happening that don’t match to my template, or “list”…then I don’t like my chances and it says something about the state of the market (chaotic and more random) so I’d rather not be in it. They do however apply to most situations (for example, a sloppy range can still give me a fake break pattern, fib, TL bounce etc). I do want to take a closer look at harmonic patterns and maybe integrate that more, but I’m satisfied atm.
…And yes, catching the down move off that second shoulder (with other confluence) is a great trade…much better than the usual break/bounce of the neckline. I see those getting real messy lately and logically, it’s pretty late in a down move to go short.
The more active this thread is, the more I’ll contribute.
Yes indeed. He doesn’t have to admit any secrets to us, the chart is enough proof for conviction lol.
That’s funny, you reminded me of the “who are you” I tend to ask. I think it’s more often in situations where there
seems to be a consensus among SM for a move, but large orders are hitting against it. They need to join us and stop fighting…who are you? I would call them up and ask them to stop, or at least why…if I could.
Hi Pete! I wrote you today on the youtube, here’s my problem…
As you can see on this image I marked up a little area, for which I thought it was a distribution phase, so I decided that this move down from Friday was the markdown, and today we would have a redistribution and a possibility to short, so I did it. I turned to the 5 min chart, I saw a confirmed no-demand and I got into a trade. If you can see the arrow pointing out the bars, this is my entry, unfortunately I didn’t understand what the market wanted to tell me and I lost. What was my mistake, what I didn’t do right?
