Who trades the news?
Setting up trades in a hope to catch a big move.
I wouldnât recommend it for new traders or anyone with quite small accounts
2 Likes
Sometimes - depends if Iâm around and how I feel !
I agree. The risk associated with volatility just isnât worth it. If you do try to use one of the techniques that have proven themselves in high volatility periods.
It is possible to use ânewsâ to get a perspective on likely big moves up ahead.
This past week is an example on GBP - most traders were aware that this past two days had three risk events, namely CPI yesterday, Retail Sales this morning and BOE Carney speaking this eveningâŚ
The market has been expecting rate increases (apparently measured at 80% chance).
So letâs say a trader was unsure CPI yesterday, so no trade before the release.
But what about Retail Sales? - well there was a huge clue released 3 days ago by the British Retail Consortium:
Year-on-year, footfall in March decreased by 6.0 per cent, a substantial decline compared to the positive rate of 1.3 per cent seen for March 2017 and the steepest year on year fall since the end of 2010.
Imagine the effect on Mr Carney - would he likely talk up rates armed with these 2 pieces of data?
https://brc.org.uk/news/2018/no-spring-in-step-for-march-footfall
1 Like
The reason I asked was because I see quite a few traders posting big profits from setting up both a BUY and a SELL with stop losses and waiting for the news to hit hoping for a big spike one way.
Yes, itâs easy, online, to see that tiny minority, because they typically post about it in forums, on websites and on Youtube, usually with some promotional motivation (often concealed).
Whatâs much more difficult to see is the great majority whoâve made heavy losses, because they typically keep quiet.
The main point here is that there are often spikes in both directions, so itâs easy to get the overall direction right and still lose money (sometimes much more than envisaged, because ânewsâ is of course exactly the time that stop-losses often canât be honored).
There are other points, too: for instance, the fact that competing with institutional traders on fundamentals, at news time, is a very reckless proposition, in the long term, for retail traders (for several reasons).
For a retail forex trader, âtrading the newsâ is rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. Some number of small profits is often easy (and thatâs what youâve been âseeingâ), but huge losses are just around the corner.
This is one of the most important things to AVOID.
Donât be fooled by what you âseeâ looking so attractive.
2 Likes
I really appreciate the reply.
They are setting stop losses though, only way I can see it not working is if the price dramatically goes one way and hits a stop loss then goes the other way and hits that stop loss too
âNewsâ is exactly the time that brokers may not be able to honor your stop-loss. Itâs easy to lose several hundred pips more than your stop-loss distance, if you trade the news. All the accidents are sitting there, waiting to happen.
The risks are impossible to assess, and thatâs exactly why you shouldnât do it. If you canât assess the risk, you canât know that itâs within your risk management parameters.
Itâs because thatâs the only way you can see it not working that long-term, experienced traders like Eddie, Charles and myself are all posting to warn you that there also other dangers, and that in the long run itâs extremely inadvisable for you, so that youâll be able to see some of the other ways it can turn out disastrously for you, too.
(But what you mention above, about both stop-losses being taken out, is also very common, too. Much more common than youâd think.)
The entire issue is really fraught with dangers.
3 Likes
Thank you again for the reply, I really appreciate it.
Straddle trades are difficult, guys also try them on the triangle pattern.
The only time that they work is on demo where all orders are filled to the pip.
But think about one sided straddle.
Analyze the instrument, I used GBP earlier - letâs say you wanted to straddle the CPI release because you have no way of knowing the release beforehand.
Perhaps if you were aware of the recent weather pattern in UK you would have cause to think that consumer spending may be muted.
Then figure what business does when sales are poor - they reduce prices, so maybe on that simple analysis you decide a GBP sell.
Then likely a sell stop is in order, if price falls you are in, if you are wrong then flat.
Thatâs just bare bones but worth some thought.
Play it forward - Jens Weidmann said last week that Germany Q1 was ânot brilliantâ.
That in itself is not trade news but it can set a tone for research.
On Monday morning there is German news, the flash mfctr is termed âamberâ, but it Monday morning with not much else to talk about, so just possibly Eur/Usd could sell.
(German manufacturing is important to EU )
Do NOT trade it live, just observe price.
The French news comes out half hour earlier, German services also out with the manufacturers, then Tue more German - this time the new IFO index.
Reasonable chance that Weidmann has sight of those numbers, so why the speech yesterday, maybe a learning process in how central bankers use the news - letâs see how it plays out.
Dunno, That may be relevant for the DAX - but Iâm not sio sure about Euro - There are loads of other countries stuck with the Euro and they are all weaker than Germany.
But on the other hand, when was the last time you eard a CEO say - âOh Jeez - the bottom is going to drop out !â ? 
1 Like
Hope you are right since dax has little impact on me.
The market has dubbed Germany as âThe Economic Powerhouse Of The Eurozoneâ for good reason.
Industry accounts for over one quarter of itâs economy, manufacturing plays a key role.
60% of itâs exports are intra EU (of which UK represents 7%)
Even more is taken in - 66% imports are intra EU.
(source: Europa.eu)
Tomorrow and Tuesday German numbers will have little impact on Eur only if there are no surprises.
The CEO thing, a guy called Ratner springs to mind, I remember it well.
1991, I hadnât realised it was so long ago.
Didnât he end up re branding the company and dropping the Ratners name?
Aye, he turned disaster into triumph - now engaged in the Indian market, also a motivational speaker - the power of PMA - many others would have hidden under a bush - hat off to the guy 
[quote=âFalstaff, post:16, topic:146023â]
But on the other hand, when was the last time you eard a CEO say - âOh Jeez - the bottom is going to drop out !â ? [/quote]
Ok then 28 years ago - but that wasnât quite the same thing - he abused his customers - in print !
Even so, being honest was hardly beneficial to his cause - was it ?
German numbers good (relief) so Euro will benefit.
