Trading news isn’t bad just understand like any other strategies out there its has its risks.
Hmmm - didn’t seem to work like that - did it ? 
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Tuesday over, it worked exactly like that, Eur/Gbp is my main concern, Weidmann’s speech was causing some goose pimples - hence the relief.
The new IFO was reasonable - also relief.
Old saying - you have to accumulate to speculate
Edit: - should add that Mon and Tue may have been a relief, this Thurs is perhaps crucial for Euro outlook over the next weeks.
Finished now.
What the results of accumulation look like on a chart:
Always watch out if a Euro seller around month end.
Btw see the divergence on zero lag macd
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Interesting perspective Peter - What’s with the "watch out if Euro seller around month end " ?
I don’t watch EurGbp as a rule - so that’s interesting.
Supposing that a person wanted to buy today, usually early gmt is best.
Bots need reference, often a price ‘level’ 80/20/50/00 are common.
Yesterday’s (Thurday) low was 80, then the divergence on return early gmt today.
There was other divergence WS on US10yr
- a wider view:
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Should add, the crossover on zero line was at the 00 level, same level that price refused to cross during Asia.
Here is what that looks like on a chart - note kick off at mid Asian: (chart gmt)
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FA is often perceived as complicated but often is really simple.
The UK is a net contributor to EU budget, settles the bill at month end (like we all have to do), so buying of Euro and selling Gbp via our ever efficient bankers of course.
Being bankers they will always want to make a profit and so price went down in order to go up.
The scary part was that just maybe Weidmann’s speech was to forewarn of bad news, the relief was that he was just being Weidmann.
The bots try to maximize the banks’ profits, a little spoofing is in order, all quite legal of course :).
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Thanks for that explanation Peter. Sounds logical to me (Even if I don’t like it much - 
)
SO with Monday being the last day of the month, presumably it’s a reasonable assumption to assume the price will hold, or rise through most of the day, until the cash is paid ?
Monday is the beginning of the new week - price will fall back to the 80 and find ‘support’.
Just a guess - but you are in the right frame - always think to the right
Hmmm… found support at the 70 but what’s 10 pips among friends.
It’s GBP weakness atm , chances of a rate rise now factored at 25%.
Well there it was - support at the 80, to the pip - predicting ( i.e. thinking in the right side) using both TA and FA
Support took two forms, both TA and FA, the set up was back from the ‘play it forward’ post.
The techs came into play on Monday with the DB - hitting the previous week’s low - confirmed by div as mentioned in post 24 & 25.
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Nice to see so much debate on the topic I started
There is a saying that "A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORD"
So I am posting a snapshot of USDCHF- 1H chart here, You may witness what happend after relesing of US Data and how the Smart Traders utilized it to eat up/wipe out the small/retail traders’ money - either they were Long or Short as per their Trade setup at that time.
Please note that before release of Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment Rate (April), the market was trading in a range of around 0.99703 and 0.99917 but the overall trend was Bullish on higher timeframes.
Furthermore, you may also check the chart of USDCAD after releasing of Canadian Levy PMI (April).
SO I THNIK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR RETAIL TRADERS TO STAY AWAY DURING THE RELEASE OF ANY IMPORTANT DATA/NEWS. HOWEVER, IF ANYONE IS ALREADY IN A TRADE (OPEN POSITION) BEFOER RELEASING ANY NEWS, THEN HE/SHE SHOULD FOLLOW VERY STRICT MM & SL RULES TO SAFEGUARD THE LOSSES.
That’s because it’s a topic worth much thought and attention, and yet often spurned.
News is usually ascribed to a single event, but it is much more, it can define the change of a trend, it can help with the notion of support/resistance, it can assist a TA trader with his SL and DD - risk associated with a relatively short term trade.
Going back on my own ‘play it fwd post’, how was it possible to see accumulation (the buying up of buy orders) - answer the news.
Imagine further that after the initial move, do not chase is order of the day, but how to know that there would be more buys, and where - the often talked about ‘support’.
Answer to first part is in the UK GDP numbers, second part - pre-programmed bots have zero wit, they will set the orders by tradition, 80, 50, 20, 00 then often absorb orders each side - when those are cleared then continue as programmed.
A patient trader who missed the first move because he is a PA trader would wait until price went back to the 80 - then a buy stop - DD 20 pips (he doesn’t like limits because he doesn’t know where price will turn and he hates DD).
That was on April 19 at market close.
I questioned Weidmann’s motive.
Germany is an exporter, USD has been on a downslide, the EU does not interfere in the FX market, news has no impact on price since it’s already factored in…etc etc.
Few people look at the EURX, aside from the ECB.
Eur/Gbp has held up well since April 20th - which is an indication of GBP strength.
Check how EURX has performed since the day following, i.e. April 20th:
(worthy of research is how price responds to the words of CB’ers.)
The second reach up under the trend line was on April 30th, imagine that a trader who was trading Eur/Usd and ignored Weidmann and the EURX, instead he was a PA trader and liked the 15min for his action.
It was Monday morning, just at Europe opening, he could see higher highs, break of Friday’s high achieved, the low of the previous week a long way down - a SL under there and a buy at market.
By next day at Europe opening his SL was gone.
Guys like things reasonably exact, they’ll look at Eurx d1 and think maybe price went a little over the line.
Trend lines are inexact, merely a representation of market thought, Weidmann is a wise man, he knew exactly what he was doing, as will the Yanks and indeed all the others in turn.
Here is the closest to being exact, bottom line is daily and thus older, top line is hr1 - the bots have it 
