Sorry for the late post but life is more than just FOREX.
Our Top SW Trades just keep trending higher, CADCHF topped the +100 pip mark today, making our Top SW Trades a perfect 12 for 12 in 2018. Top Trade GBPCHF topped the +200 pip mark, now we will have to see if Tradercloud made the right call in closing his GBPCHF, big up candle today and often a run will end on such a move as the shorts finally take their losses.
little off topic. but seeing all this new news and regulations in the financial world. what if the the leveraging is totally removed from forex industry.
Hi. I am back after few years. Where can I find your Trading Rules you stated when you started fxcm forum ???
Completely off-topic.
Suggest you start your own thread, ask your question, and get a discussion going.
Wow! FXCM forum, that seems like a life time ago. As far as trading rules, I pretty much leave that up to each trader as everyone has their own unique style to bring to the forum, My own trading I will share from time to time but I mostly keep my personal trades just that personal. The public side of this thread is the Strong Weak rankings and the trades coming from those rankings, But glade you found me, we have been on a 12 trade win streak so far in 2018 and the fun is just starting
Here is an updated list of this year’s Strong Weak Trades, 12 trades, 12 winners,
We did finish Friday with a reversal of our two current trades, GBPCHF and CADCHF were both up early but sold off into the close
Great week for Top Trades GBPCHF and CADCHF, We did have a miner reversal on Friday so we will watch that, but both are up in early Monday trading
It’s been an amazing year!!
Another new high for GBPCHF (+295 pips)
Rule #1 Don’t fight the Trend, just sit back and enjoy the ride
Here’s an interesting article about the surprising weakness in the CHF over the past 2 months –
Who’s Driving The Mysterious Swiss Franc Slump?
https://protradingresearch.com/2018/04/13/whos-driving-the-mysterious-swiss-franc-slump/
It’s interesting to read about the fundamentals involved in currency movements. But, for technical traders like us, all that fundamental analysis stuff is pretty irrelevant. While the FA folks have been wondering what’s going on, we’ve been happily profiting from what we’ve been seeing on our charts.
As technical traders, we can spot trends and jump on them, without knowing (or caring) what’s driving them.
Dennis’ Strong/Weak Analysis has been alerting us to CHF weakness for several weeks now.
Here are just the most recent daily rankings –
I’m long CAD/CHF for the second time. Round 1 was good for 100 pips, and Round 2 is currently +55 pips. Until I saw the article mentioned above, it never occurred to me to ask why the CHF was parked in the #8 spot.
That is really it in a nutshell! Whatever pressures are created by fundamental issues, they will reflect in the price movements. All we are doing is tracking those movements and tagging along with them. In that sense we are also trading fundamentals but only through monitoring their direct impact of currencies’ relative values.
However, I guess this relationship is only really true on longer timeframes of daily and above. Movements on very short term charts are the result of a multitude of different factors, some even merely the self-fultilling effect of TA itelf.
And I guess it is still important to watch for important events on the calendar in case one wants to adjust one’s exposure beforehand. But that is in the risk/money management camp and not technical analysis.
Maybe not all the FA folks have been wondering what’s going on - could I perhaps quote Mike Patterson of Forexlive:
EURCHF now posting 1.1690 levels not seen since late Jan and USDCHF seemingly with a line in the sand at 0.9360 ahead of larger interest at 0.9330 and 0.9300 that I’ve been banging on about for ages now
It would be easy to throw SNB "smoothing"into the plot and sitting on the bid but yep that’s me. Always trying to keep it simple. Don’t forget they’re sitting on an awful long USDCHF position right now and won’t want it heading much lower with 35% of reserves in the pair and last revalued a lot higher.
Mike posted that on March 7th, the SNB published their foreign holdings about 4 hour earlier in the day.
Hr4 chart with the candle of SNB data release arrowed.(For TA analysis good to extend line left)
Just thought I’d mention it 
Edit: nice to see the Jan 15 gap (SNB debacle) being closed - took a while but soon back to the peg level.
As noted by others above more weakness in the CHF, which is great for our Top SW Trades as both the CAD and GBP hit new highs today
Thanks again Dennis!
hi denis
i have calculated the S/W myself. GBP & CAD strong, CGF & JPY weak. same as yesterday.
The currency pairs are moving according to the S/W analysis. but when the pair has moved a lot far from the moving average it will show a positive percentage right. but when the currency is making a pullback it will still be above the moving average so the percentage will still be positive and the S/W analysis still shows that particular currency as strong .
how do you try to filter this issue out.
I am not very good explaining in english, hope i have conveyed my doubt properly.
Pullback day for GBP and CAD
Nothing moves straight up, Pullbacks are part of the game and sometimes they will force you out of a position, How you deal with them is up to you and your personal trading plan. A common method if trading multiple lots is to take profit in half of your position at a target point ( say 100 or 200 pips) then let the rest run with a break even stop. You can then wait for a reversal signal to get you out of the trade but you will never get out at the very top. If you can bank 50% of any of these moves you are doing well
I hope this helps
yes, it helped whenever i see i small pullback i was jumping into concluding it as a reversal. at least now i know i was just panicking.
thanks dennis
Think of FOREX like a Poker game, a pullback is the Market raising the bet, the Market is always trying to get you to fold, sometimes the market is just bluffing, they will get you to fold ( close your position) only to shoot higher without you
best explanation !!
thanks
