Hi Dennis,
Just want to say a big thank you for the time in publishing these reports, I just have a quick question. Do you ever look at the 1 week charts, I noticed on the GBPCAD* 1 week chart that there seems to be support around the 50 Ma. I just wanted to know your thoughts?
The weekend is when I will look at the weeklies, and not just FOREX but the other markets I trade, support, resistant and reversals can be very powerful on the weekly. If you are trading on technical analysis price action on the weekly overrides anything from the daily, just the daily overrides the 4hr and 4hr overides the 1hr
Hi Dennis,
Do you trade all 28 pairs using this strategy?
Attached is a signal on GBPAUD (22 Nov 2017), before market goes in the right direction it retraced about 366 Pips, how do you manage your trade in such situations ?
Green Arrows are when the pair is strongest or second strongest
Thanks
Thank you very much Dennis
Amazing Thread @Dennis3450
I had a question regarding your analysis, Its something you said a while ago:
"I use the yen as my common denominator, % you see is distance price is above or below 200 ma on 4hr chart."
Why do use a 4hr chart as a source for data collection? and then do you use this data to trade daily charts? Has this approach given you a better chance at conquering the market?
I have a core list of 7 pairs I trade, but I am rethinking that as this year there have been a lot of Top SW pairs not in my core list
GBP with anything can be difficult to trade as it can have some big swings and cover a lot of pips in a day, there is good reason why GBPJPY is called " Riding the Dragon" one way to manage these swings is to keep your position small, no in advance where your support is and if hanging on during a 300 pip pullback will be too painful then you may want to skip the trade, another trick is to watch the 200ma on the 1hr chart, if you are long and the day closes with price below the 200ma you may want to exit the trade, but go long again when price breaks back above the 200ma, this way you protect yourself from a big loss but can have a second chance should price move back in your direction
I learned Strong Weak trading using the 4hr Chart and 200 ma, It has always worked so I stuck with it, you could get numbers close to mine using the Daily and 33 or 34 ma. When making technical trades I almost always use price action from the daily. and yes this approach has turned me from one of the 90% who always lose, to the 10% of winners
Whoa, what am I missing here? Please define the “right direction” before placing the trade. Because I see it moved, first 400+ pips in the up direction, and then if survived the down spike, it moved second to 500 pips in the up direction - both are larger than 386 pips down you mentioned.
Most traders would be happy to take 100 or 200 pips from this pair, even on a trailing stop loss. But obviously you must be looking to hold for weeks off a daily signal, so your target must be 1,000 or 2,000 or more pips, right? In that case 386 pips drawdown is nothing.
One thing I notice in the videos is, only maximum pips are shown, never any entries, stop loss or take profits are shared. Which is fair enough, I believe Dennis has said that he is sharing an analysis technique only and not a full trading plan.
And that trading plan is for each individual trader to design. In the example, how, where, what level would you decide to place the initial stop loss and take profit? If you have those elements planned, I think you can answer your own question.
Good luck
Hi Johnny,
Thanks for the reply. As you said “Right Direction” means different to every trader. And I accept this was a poorly picked example as it move 400+ pips before the retracement. I plan my trades on weekly charts and then I look for the SW to enter in the direction of the trend and in that terms I meant “Right Direction”, below is a my weekly chart of GBPAUD.
I’ve done some further research and Dennis first points out the GBPAUD in Post 909 on Oct 13, note - Consolidation remarks
There is a video in Post 912 where he mentions there is no action because the percentage between the high and low is so close together, less than 2%
However, 2 weeks later when the market has moved, he then claims huge pip gains, but never fear, he says this about it in Post 932.
“No smoke and mirrors here as I document each of these trade setups in real time on this thread”
Well worth watching that video post 932, to see the pips claimed, but as it happens, that was the market top.
Certainly good advice to read all the thread, now to find the trade documentation.
Continue with GBPAUD analysis, Post 980 video goes off on a distraction about Bitcoin but hey, no smoke & mirrors here.
There is a 1,000 pip trade in progress, got to love the videos, they seem to pick the turns precisely!
Not bad for a trade that was not even entered due to “no action” previously.
Someone should open demo account just to log the actual signal days and prices, as I can’t find the claimed trade documentation yet, please help me find it.
Not knocking this method, it surely will work, but a good understanding of price action will be needed to trade actual dollars, real account.
I think even a daily close above / below the signal will prevent getting into those draw down situations.
Hi FX_Johnny,
This method was proposed by Richard Krivo, and I have traded the system for about a year and I am pretty convinced that it works, there were few problems that I encountered with this method which I am working on.
Following is an indicator that I developed to track the signals as you can see, it is pretty accurate. It is a question about how we enter the market.
We had a week of consolidation and sideways price action,
Richard Krivo is the man, he got me to stop day trading and focus on long-term moves, that is when my trading luck changed for the good
Yes patience is no dought the hardest thing to master in this type of trading
how about the result
What a legend, I learned so many things from him, he was the best instructor at DailyFX.
From Post 1267 “Dennis has wisely chosen the JPY, because it is always the quote currency in any currency pair, and therefore calculating the Strong/Weak rankings never entails currency inversions, which are a nuisance and can be a source of math errors. Consider, for example, using the USD as the reference currency. The USD is the quote currency in 4 of the 7 major pairs, but it is the base currency in the other 3 pairs – which means that, in 3 out of 7 calculations, the price of a USD-pair must be inverted in order to place the USD in the denominator.”
Nothing wise about it, only a convenience, and maybe lack of computing skills; however, anytime data is manually input into Excel, it can be a source of mathematical error, no matter which pair is used, but the actual calculation should not be an insurmountable problem. The price does NOT have to be inverted in order to use the USD, the formula does but it is hardly a “nuisance” as Excel does all the work.
Another thing that is misstated here many time is that the pairs are ranked against the JPY, a concept that I struggled with; however, I have now realized, pairs are just ranked against each other. In fact, this is so simple of a concept, it makes a mockery of Currency Strength Meters everywhere!
Here is the USD spreadsheet for comparison, if 2% is the required spread, nearly 4 signals / pairs against the USD - JPY, GBP, EUR, NZD
PS: another thing that is misrepresented here is that SIGNAL and TRADE are interchangeable when mentioned the daily S/W posting, and until someone points me to the actual claimed entry price, I will continue to point this fact out to the new readers.
You’re a bitchy little fellow, aren’t you.
Sounds like he has come over form Forex Factory, everyone has something to prove over there, that forum is a mess, hope this thread can stay on track.
