Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

2019 has been a tough year for our SW Trades but could Top Trade AUDNZD be pointing toward better times

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Today was all about New Zealand weakness, Top Trade AUDNZD tops to +200 pip mark


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That is the problem most traders run into. they find something that works and think they have found a way to print money and just that fast the market changes and that great system starts bleeding cash. For me I will stick with my SW trading and during those bad markets I am fine sitting on the sideline

More of the same, today’s price action suggest AUDNZD may still move higher


AUD/NZD is consolidating watching for a break expecting a gap up then a retrace to 106.900. Hardly any pips

AUD/ CHF is consolidating and no break out as yet. No SW strength in any direction. No pips

Lets see what the festival bunny brings.

That’s all folks till Tuesday night (GMT).

AUDCHF is consolidating, let’s discuss, define consolidation

Consolidation is defined by price action, let’s examine that

First the weekly chart, 10 EMA and 20 EMA, already 4 times it failed to deliver to the long side

In fact, they didn’t cross at number 4 , ha ha ha

Is this consolidation?

Down to daily chart, same 10 EMA 20 EMA

Is this consolidating? No, this would already be in a long trade

How about 4 hour, don’t think so, perfect stair stepping price action

The old support and resistance theory at work, trend traders dream

How about that break of trend line with perfect re-testing?

Back to you

Based on the last 52 hours of analysis on the 1 hour chart the bars are HH 0.72634 and LH of 0.72286.

Looks pretty consolidating to me as to what I would not trade on the 1 hour chart.

I look at the day, 4 hour and 1 hour charts and only use price action.

Cannot see where I would be able to place my 60 pip box for any break above and below to tell me a trend is forming.

This shows my boxes of 60 pips above which I would place a buy and below a sell.

In this scenario I would most likely see no trades triggered and my if they did then the trades would not form within my trade time limit and probably result in a loss.

How did you arrive at 60 pips for the boxes? Is that for all pairs? Where are they drawn from? Are they subjective or from price points?

How does that, and the 1 hour chart, fit into Dennis strategy based on end of day S / W readings and daily entry points?

Good luck

I will have a look later on today for the thread number where I outlined the strategy that I use.

The boxes are illustrative and were to hand for placing on the daily chart at the candle mid point on the day chart.

In the examples shown I reduced them down to about 10 pips in order to fit on the chart in as many as I could as the 60 pip areas which would normally be just lines that I up date every day in a lot of cases sit outside the chart boundaries.

Off sailing now to blow out the cobwebs of the working week

Two weeks of AUDNZD as a Top Trade hitting a high of +202 pips on Wednesday, and I’ve seen nothing so far to suggest this run is over.


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This market is being dominated by the huge Daily pin bar reversal that occurred on January 3rd, All the Yen pairs show this and so do many of the non-Yen pairs. I would not be trading against that Pin Bar, but note this could reverse at some point and the drop will likely be far more dramatic than the slow grind higher. Some would call this a Bear Trap

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Hello Dennis,

According to sources quoted by Finance Magnates, there is a significant risk of another Yen Flash Crash sometime in the 10-day period from 27 April through 6 May.

I posted a link to the Finance Magnates article elsewhere in the forum. — Here’s a LINK.


On then 2nd &n 3rd March I posted how I use Dennis’s SW analysis along with a simple method of trading.

It uses a MA to confirm trend and a simple formula that can be put into excel to determine the mid point.

To answer your consolidation question which is nether significant increase or decrease from a sideways move.butbiam sure you already know that. Why trade a sideways market ? It is not profitable and needs deep analysis in order to determine a change. So my mantra is patience, wait for the SW to go above 2% for the pair and then look to see if your energies for taking the trade come to play.

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This is my Chart for todays SW pair. AUD/CHF SW 2.27.

I use MT4 and use the draw lines function in the lower ribbon on the left of the ribbon. I is click and drag and drop. You can manually adjust the lines to the correct values as per the excel spread sheet.

The 2 aqua lines show my 30 pips lines drawn above and below the mid price point of Fridays closing candle. The upper is where I place 2 buy limits and the lower 2 sell limits trade trade I do not think much is going to happen. The Stop loss is 30 pips and the take profit is trade 1 50 pips, trade 2 is 100 pips.

Move to break even when trade is at 45 pips then use a trail stop to take the 50 pip profit and move to the 100 pip profit.

Do not forget to delete the opposing trades when the first 2 trades have triggered.

Please note that in this incidence I have not taken any trades so no profit or loss signs are on the chart.


Thank you, you said you are mindful of the 200ma. Whats your view on the 200ma on that one? And also how many days does it take to hit your TP?

First may I apologise as I have illustrated on the wrong highest lowest pair but the principle is the same.

The 200 MA I only use to look at the extreme extent of the trend so is it a very long trend ? in the 1 hour TF and could it be exhausting ? If you wished to use a lower sma like 50 or 34 then you can.

I just like clean charts so that I can also observe the 1 hour price action when placing the upper and lower lines.

I look for Dennis’s SW analysis then the trend direction.

Below is how I do my calculations.

Below is the screen for AUD NZD

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