Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

That is a big gap between 1 and 8, Crypto got hit hard this weekend, it could be an ugly day on Monday. But our Top SW Trades are doing just fine. Who says currency trading is high risk



Thought I’d take a look at the long/short balance of traders with open positions with my broker.

On AUD/JPY, 67% are long. Meanwhile on AUD/USD 73% are long, while on AUD/CHF its currently 50-50.

On NZD/JPY, only 33% are long. On NZD/USD 67% are long, on NZD/CHF its 50-50.

So there’s some disagreement but I think we can say there’s some preference for being long, even on these wretched pairs.

Have to note that only 31% of their active traders are profitable.


A classic case of traders trying to call the bottom. And they might be right, at the moment, given the changing news on covid and how it affects the risk sentiment.

But I do have a pending order short in both AUDJPY and AUDCHF right now, and open positions in AUDJPY and NZDCHF.

Last week I closed AUDUSD short for 220 pips at the big D1 support. That was me also guilty of calling the bottom (but in healthy profit). I missed another 130 pips …

Very interesting that only 31% are profitable and 67% are taking the other side of my trade … I have had a really good 3 weeks swing trading SW pairs


You’d have to find the average of each currency across all of its 7 pairs to be more accurate. Forex moves towards the minority sentiment (contrarian)!!!

Where did you get these readings from?

The broker shows the percentages of long and short clients at the top of the chart for each pair. The figures represent the percentage of their clients with open positions who are long and short at that specific moment. Of course, the figures are just a snapshot - they don’t disclose how many clients have open positions, nor how much money is involved, nor how many positions are involved.

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Forex Sentiment

Hover mouse over the pair for pop-up information


It is the same mental state that has people betting red after 3 black numbers come up, also called the Gambler’s Fallacy

Being a contrarian trader and going against the crowd has always been my trading philosophy

( that is when I became a profitable trader, I was part of the majority chasing the wrong side of the trade early on)


Hi Dennis

I only like to go short on these. Do you go both long and short or do you have a bias?



AUD/JPY - pullback or reversal?

I trade #1 against #8 , If the USD is 1 and the AUD is 8, that would be a short on AUDUSD

I have been short on AUD and NZD and will be until their downtrends stall. My ideal level to enter would be on price falling after a bullish pull-back.

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Thanks, so you will go long as well, it just depends on what is 1 and what is 8?

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that depends on the pair, going long current #1 Yen requires going short

The market continues its back and forth movement, Friday was down, today was up, does that mean tomorrow will be down? It is anyone’s guess


Number 1 predictor of the fx long term direction: CONTRARIAN!!!

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AUDJPY is heavily longed by the retail therefore their stop losses are on the short side which translates to food for stop loss hunting by the Big Players who are the ones who move the markets.

Just watch a few fx contrarian vids on youtube and you’re sold, pun intented

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you will find this one helpful bro

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Dow jumps nearly 650 points, erasing last week’s losses as investors shake off omicron worries

Santa Claus rally is GO GO GO

Contrarians have gone into hiding for now.

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Good Old level trade. USDCAD

Quick trade on GBPCAD from a level in September :slight_smile: