Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

Yes and Yes, post the price and SMA you are looking at and the time you took those numbers, do it for just one pair, like USDJPY then I might be able to help

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I am allowed three a year, :wink:

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9 Dec, 10 min before close: USDJPY Price 130.328 MA 125.609 Hence 3.62% versus your’s 4.08%

More pain for stocks and some wild swings in AUD and NZD

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Did you by chance mean 9th of May?

anyway May 9th closing numbers where price 130.29 and ma 124.93 , I plugged your numbers into my spreadsheet and got 3.62% just like you. depending on how my day is going I might pull numbers anytime between an hour before or after the daily close so that is likely where are difference is. For My trading those few percentage fractions don’t mean much, but If you want more precise data then doing your own tracking is the way to go

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Yes sorry, 9 May.

Today again, quite a difference, please see attached.

Even the rankings are affected.

Do you per chance have a Sunday candle that might affect the MA?

Here are my figures at NY Close with FXOpen and this is slightly different for my analysis. That is down to broker.

In the Daily I record the Prices. These then transfer to the Rank Pair % Strength and generate the pairs with either positive (green) % pairs and (light blue) for negative % pairs.

The 200 SMA is a manual input of where the 200 SMA is pointing.

The next chart is the pairs selected and I plug in the ATR for the hourly.

Finally I sort the rank for the day monitoring the RISK ON and OFF pairs.

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I noticed that the snip cut out some important detail so I have added this screenshot.

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Running late tonight, I took these numbers from the exact last closing 4hr candle at 5 pm est.

we should all agree on these numbers within a couple of fractions of a percent

Huge day for the Yen, but still Top Trade NZDUSD added another 50 pips

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No daily Sunday candle, but will have one 4hr candles on Sunday

look at today’s numbers, are we in agreement

You have a lot of information here, how is this helping you with a trade entry? I like to keep it super simple

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No daily Sunday candle, but will have one 4hr candles on Sunday

look at today’s numbers, are we in agreement

The extra candle will be the explanation for the difference, especially with the big recent movers, as seen below.

Rankings are the same, most currencies are approximately the same, except for USD, NZD and CAD.

In more normal times I think the differences will be much smaller. I will live with it, lol.

Thanks for your help and your persistence in posting. This is the only system in the Forex world that has not changed in 6 years!

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Dennis, Good Morning from the sunny UK.

In answer to your observation it gives me just a direction to trade on a specific pair and the accompanying strength.

It is conditioned so that all I put in are the prices in the orange boxes and select the pairs. I only press U, D or N for the trend and custom sort the rank,

The whole process is done and dusted in 15 minutes including setting up the EA I use.

I use it in 2 ways.

The first to turn on or off an EA and the direction - the EA then decides if it takes a trade.

The second is to decide whether to manual trade during the Frankfurt and London breakouts.

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I have shown this indicator before on this thread, almost four years ago.

It shows how the currencies have fared over the last 34 days, which equals Dennis’ 200 MA on the H4.

I am personally taken a punt on NZDUSD retracing. Don’t try this at home!

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We have a morning rally but the trend is for the sellers to take over in the afternoon, Rally in Yen pairs is not making up for yesterday’s selloff

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Your set-up approach is good.

And you will be right about this pair retracing, ahem, eventually…

Friday rally held into the close, technically we have a setup for a short-term rally, so far these rallies have been nothing more than bear traps. My advice is don’t chase these rallies as they can move against you quickly

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This is very interesting - I don’t see if often where the SW rankings are completely opposite of my positions!
The technical signals are showing to long the JPY, however it looks scary because JPY is the 2nd/3rd strongest pair at the current moment.

I will apply my classic strategy of “if in fear, stay out” !!

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There’s an anomaly here. I also have JPY ranked as 3rd strongest currency. First time its been positive in many weeks, if not months.

However, the other TA features I check off to verify an established trend are all giving me a “stay out” signal on the JPY pairs. All except USD/JPY that is, but that still shows as a very weak buy. So, for me it just too soon to buy JPY.

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You didn’t see any JPY pairs making lower lows on a weekly chart yet?

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My set-up is slow (very) to react to rotations of currencies between strong to weak / weak to strong, but the reward for later entries is high probability.

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