Triple threat exit strategy

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
215

RESULTS for 07/31 Total -318 pips

AUDUSD BUY
1.05166 -> 1.04750 (stopped out at initial SL)
-41 / - 41 / -41
Total -123 pips

GBPUSD SELL
1.56705 -> 1.5700 (stopped out at initial SL)
-30 / -30 / -30
Total -90 pips

EURUSD BUY
1.23107 -> 1.22750 (stopped out at initial SL)
-35 / -35 / -35
Total -105 pips

OPEN TRADES for 08/01
GBPJPY SELL 122.467 (-4 / -4 / -4) -> still open from 07/31
AUDUSD SELL 1.04870 (-19 / -19 / -19)

CLOSED TRADES for 08/01
GBPJPY SELL 122.199 -> 122.50 (-30 / -30 / -30) -> stopped out at initial SL -> Total -90 pips already “locked in” for today :-))

PENDING TRADES for 08/01
EURUSD SELL 1.22473
EURUSD BUY 1.23303
AUDUSD BUY 1.05380
GBPJPY BUY 123.006
GBPUSD SELL 1.56235
GBPUSD BUY 1.57300

So for the previous two days I have -417 pips! Let’s see if I can blow my demo account in August! :-))

216

Sir, this is with the EA on Alpari?

217

As all 5 pairs got triggered with one order each, I cancelled the opposite side orders to maintain margin.

All trades hit SL

Result

Au -38,-38,-38
GJ -30,-30,-30
EJ -28,-28,-28
EU -32,-32,-32
GU -27,-27,-27

Total: -465

Let us hope a better tomorrow ! ! !

218

Pipwoof… sorry i think i got myself confused for the longest time… if you have a trade open since yesterday, do you still order the same ccy and direction today on new levels based on yesterdays candle and thus possibly ending up with 2 open orders by end of day today if the trend yesterday continues till today?

219

pat, in my backtests i considered each day for new entries, even if there were open positions from a prior day. in real life, it may make sense to add positions if our current are in locked profit. otherwise, it seems enough exposure to continue with the open positions we have, so i would not add. of course, some of that depends on your account size and risk tolerance.

220

what an ugly day for triple threat. sorry for those of you who just decided to trade it and i hope you were in small. i was live in two pairs, e/j and g/j, but did move stops tighter on g/j and managed to get out about -100 overall. here’s the day:

g/j sell 122.20, stopped 122.50, -30 X 3 = -90
a/u sell 1.0474, stopped 1.0500, -25 X 3 = -75
e/u buy 1.2330, stopped 1.2300, -30 X 3 = -90
g/u sell 1.5623, stopped 1.5650, -30 X 3 = -90
total: -345

and if you considered e/j sell 95.74, stopped 96.00, -25 X 3 = -75

bobkat had underscored the tendency of these pairs to move together. of course, that’s a good thing when it’s in our favor, but a different story today. best guess, because they do tend to move together, the backtests show this kind of day maybe once a month on average. better days are when losing, but some of the pairs manage to dodge entry. worse days are when the stops are further away. a possible weakness to watch for is if this occurred in a string, creating a significant drawdown. this was not a good way to top off a great july.

221

Yep, this is Alpari UK (demo of course) with the EA, but since I consider the EA still beta, I always double check if it placed the correct orders.

222

we have concluded july trading with good results, but the bad day today leaves a bitter taste. i pause to reflect on my early trading when i had more days like this than the other. the risk for losing was an account, $500 or $50,000, whatever i could swing at the time and i went through a few of those. the reward for winning was personal and financial freedom. we’re all adults here and we know the score. we know what we want and what we are willing to risk in an effort to get it.

use these results as a basis for comparison. look back at your charts and see how you would have traded. if you can’t get close to these results, communicate and we’ll try to figure out why not.

gbp/jpy
7-2, sell 124.99, +15, +15, +15
7-5, sell 124.22, -30, -30, -30
7-6, sell 123.82, +55, +55, +55
7-9, buy 123.53, -30, -30, -30
7-10, sell 122.99, be, be, be
7-11, buy 123.56, -5, -5, -5
7-12, buy 123.98, -25, -25, -25
7-16, sell 123.15, +40, +40, +15
7-17, buy 123.36, +35, +10, +10
7-19, sell 123.07, -20, -20, -20
7-20, sell 122.89, +10, +10, +10
7-23, sell 122.25, +25, +75, +75
7-24, sell 121.11, -40, -40, -40
7-25, sell 120.94, -30, -30, -30
7-26, sell, 120.92, -35, -35, -35
7-30, sell 123.25, +25, +75, +25
7-31, sell 122.20, -30, -30, -30
closed trades thru 7-31: -45

aud/usd
7/2, sell 1.0223, -5, -5, -5
7-5, sell 1.0258, -15, -15, -15
7-6, sell 1.0240, +40, +40, +40
7-9, sell 1.0181, +5, +5, +5
7-10, buy 1.0213, -15, -15, -15
7-11, buy 1.0244, +30, +5, +5
7-12, sell 1.0177, +25, +50, +25
7-16, sell 1.0218, -10, -10, -10
7-17, buy 1.0259, +40, +15, +15
7-18, buy 1.0319, +30, +80, +80
7-19, buy 1.0373, +25, +25, +25
7-23, sell 1.0323, +45, +45, +20
7-24, sell 1.0241, +40, +15, +15
7-25, sell 1.0208, be, be, be
7-26, buy 1.0336, +35, +85, +85
7-30, buy 1.0493, +5, +5, +5
7-31, sell 1.0474, -25, -25, -25
closed trades thru 7-31: +800

eur/usd
7/2, sell 1.2638, -15, -15, -15
7-5, sell 1.2506, +30, +105, +230
7-9, buy 1.2290, -15, -15, -15
7-10, buy 1.2324, -25, -25, -25
7-11, sell 1.2233, +30, +30, +5
7-12, sell 1.2211, +35, +10, +10
7-13, sell 1.2165, -10, -10, -10
7-16, sell 1.2233, +30, +30, +30
7-17, buy 1.2289, -40, -40, -40
7-19, buy 1.2306, -30, -30, -30
7-20, sell 1.2227, +25, +25, +25
7-23, sell 1.2104, be, be, be
7-24, sell 1.2065, -10, -10, -10
7-25, buy 1.2138, -15, -15, -15
7-26, buy 1.2170, +30, +105, +80
7-30, sell 1.2285, +35, +35, +35
7-31, buy 1.2330, -30, -30, -30
closed trades thru 7-31: +400

gbp/usd
7-2, sell 1.5660, -15, -15, -15
7-5, sell 1.5571, +45, +45, +95
7-6, sell 1.5497, be, be, be
7-9, buy 1.5497, -5, -5, -5
7-10, buy 1.5534, -35, -35, -35
7-11, buy 1.5548, +25, be, be
7-12, sell 1.5483, +30, +10, +10
7-13, buy 1.5516, +30, +30, +30
7-16, sell 1.5565, +40, +15, +15
7-17, buy 1.5654, -5, -5, -5
7-19, buy 1.5668, -20, -20, -20
7-23, sell 1.5588, +35, +60, +35
7-25, sell 1.5484, -15, -15, -15
7-26, buy 1.5551, +25, +125, +150
7-30, sell 1.5712, -10, -10, -10
7-31, sell 1.5623, -30, -30, -30
closed trades thru 7-31: +445

portfolio total for july: +1,600

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[B][/B]1. Introduction, explanation, examples and results: Posts 1 & 2
2. Chart example, detailed trade step by step: Post 7
3. Using judgment to depart from strict rules: Posts 17, 69, & 108
4. How to define “day,” platform and results differences: Posts 5, 31, 123, 137, 148, 149, 152, 155, 157, 164, 194, & 195
5. July summary of all trades, posted for comparison: Post 208
6. Demands on personal life to trade the method: Post 83
7. Indicator, Forex News Market Clock: Post 167
8. Re-entering trades that are stopped out: Posts 111 & 113
9. EUR/JPY, results for a new pair: Post 115
10. EA & RPOTOR: Posts 89, 93, 94, 100, 106, 107, 159, 160, 166, 172, 175, 178, & 200
NOTE: The latest version of rpotor’s order entry ea is v3.19 and is available at this link: http://www.rpotor.com/forex/TTE/Daybreak-TT-OrderEntry-v3.19.mq4

224

Congratulations Pipwoof!!!

225

pat, thank you and everyone supporting the thread. as a part of this, i do hope the contest moderator will be able to follow through with a rigorous backtest and, hopefully, give us some good news. since “past performance is no guarantee of future results” the important thing now is for db w/tt to continuing moving us toward our ultimate goal.

227

No worries pipwoof. Although it was my very first day of trading this strategy (test-account), I have back-tested this enough on those pairs to know that in the long-run this is a profitable strategy. Thanks again for all of your hard work in July. I’m hoping that we can keep this on-going!

228

In like a lamb out like a lion! Or vise versa…

Oh well, one down day. Don’t get crazy and start jumping ship just because there’s a day against us. Keep with your plan and it’ll work out.

July was another successful month out of almost all that have been reviewed.

Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Also, I have noticed that this strategy favors a trending price action. This week has pretty much just ranged with low atr. So, I expect things will be kind of flat until the next big move.

I do like this strategy because it allows you to catch those big swings, no matter which direction its going, while keeping your losses small.

229

It was my first day with this strategy and gave 465 pips to the broker. But no problem. It is a micro account. Will definitely continue. I am sure of +ve results in long run.

230

you can spot the pros. cool heads in choppy waters (pun intended). i do appreciate the positives.

pipwright has it pretty close when he cites the trend. actually, this method will favor both a trend and a moderate move from break. a moderate move will be seen to average 37 1/2 pips, i.e., 1 1/2 quarters. over time, this is what we will see as our average initial tp on position 1. reaching that point, it both collects a profit and protects the other two positions. but, the sugar game is when we get a mini-trend of two or three days or more. these are the days when we are holding locked in profits on positions and getting new signals to add, which we will because we feel comfortable with the money we have already banked. these are the situations that run up our pips. let’s not even talk about a sustained trend of a week or more. we might get downright giddy.

don’t know why i hadn’t done this before and can’t add it to post 1 because i can’t edit, but here are two results columns by month for portfolios. the first is from the original by-hand test for the published four pairs. the second includes our new data for the same period on eur/jpy. that is, we would be trading five pairs in the second column. with the four pairs, we had one losing month, feb '12. trading all five pairs, we covered all months with a profit and look at those hard-to-imagine totals at the end. all we need now is for it to continue.

1 1710 2640
2 2035 2070
3 2630 3930
4 2580 3205
5 2250 2890
6 2095 2910
7 1035 1730
8 1915 2265
9 2175 2450
10 2455 4785
11 790 1455
12 2910 3815
13 3365 5175
14 (445) 1075
15 1670 2075
16 695 1330
17 920 1625
18 420 1150

tot: 31205 46575

231

Wow, that’s awesome pipwoof! I quickly calculated for the second column, just for a goof, if you started with minis /position (10K starting account) and increased one mini for each 10K of profit (fixed incremental), it would’ve made more than 33 times ROI and that’s conservative, because you only gave us monthly data. I mean, with these results you pretty much can go as crazy as you want (almost), regarding position sizing method and risk management…

232

thanks. of course, this was all done by hand and is subject to error, does not include transaction costs, and does not include “…no guarantee of future results.” but, if we can’t expect the future to be at least somewhat like the past, what are we gonna do? i like the guy earlier in the thread who challenged me when i used the titanic as an analogy for something that couldn’t fail. after discussion, we both agreed that we shouldn’t use something like the titanic as a reason to never take a boat trip.

233

Hi Pipwoof
Congratulations for the good work and thanks for sharing this with other newbie traders (I am one of them)
I have 2 questions:

  1. How do you manage the Stop losses during the day? How often do you look at the graph? Do you look at it on each exact hour - 9:00, 10:00 … 16:00, etc and only then adjust the Stops?

  2. When you backtested the system manually on H1, were you looking only at the opening and closing price of the bar or you were also taking into account the High and the Low of the given hour?

Thanks

234

welcome to the thread. during the day, i am usually home and flipping around between websites and charts. no particular schedule. price can cross a stop change at any time. when i have to leave the house, i try to wait until we are at least in pos 1 profit. that makes for afternoon appointments, but i may miss a move anyway. when i’m in another part of the house, i set alerts so that if price on a chart moves to a certain point, my computer starts calling me.

with a method like this, it usually isn’t the days that get you. social time and sleep time are more problematic. see post 83 for more discussion.

backtesting, i looked at highs and lows. on a long position, if a low on a subsequent bar was lower than our stop-loss, then we certainly got taken out. hope this helps. i know how long these threads can get, but i have a directory of important topics on post 209 that may help you get up to speed. thanks.

235

Today:

Aud/usd:

Short entry @ 1.04749; SL all @ 1.0525= -105.6

Long entry @ 1.05395; SL all@ 1.0500= -118.5

Short entry @ 1.04749; TP @ 1.04498; AIR still open SL@ be; RT SL@ 1.0475 = +23.7

Gbp/Jpy:

Short entry @ 122.222; SL all @ 122.500= -83.4

Short entry @122.222; all still open, SL @ 122.20= +6.6

Eur/usd:

Long entry @ 1.22331; SL @1.2300 = -93.3

Short entry @ 1.22477; all still open =0

Total = -370.5

Note: I reentered my positions after they were stopped out. all pairs open as of right now are in positive territory. Let’s hope the venture deeper into it.

Im only trading three pairs as I’m live in a tiny account trading 500 units (0.005 lot size). Maybe I’ll expand and drop the trade size further. Maybe not. It can be a lot to keep up with manually. Although, it appears that diversification with this strategy is a good thing. I guess I’ll just find a rhythm.

Good luck to all and thanks to all of the effort and support going into this. Hopefully, we’ll see august end strong like july.

I have some thoughts on a few things but I’m testing this as is for the month to see its true colors in a live account before I go messing with things :wink: