Here we are coding this strategy only on MT4. Trading station is entirely different language.
Hi all, this is a really interesting thread!
dineshydv how do you backtest your script, do you need to choose the H1 period?
Thnaks a lot.
This week showed a bit more gain than the last but we’re still in the red for this month. There were some nice trades taken by TT that I really liked. I’m noticing that there are some trades that coincide with sup/dem levels and TT wants to trade the failure of that level. Now, this can work out but it’s a lower probability trade. If you implement a rule to not trade some of the poorest entries, TT makes some wild gains by cutting losses. Also, the 25 pips loss that is being tested, is proving beneficial as well.
i have just completed a lot of looking to compare results i got by hand with those being generated by the ea’s. here are some pictures and i’ll go into a little discussion.
july was a good month for the method and i supposed it would be a good month to compare. because of the amount of work involved, i only looked at aud/usd for one month. sheet 1 is a comparison of what i got by hand with what rpotor shows. i had to make a slight correction to what i reported earlier and i am now showing +885 compared to rpotor’s +177.
judgment calls accounted for a good portion of the difference. pipwoof judgment calls came to -105. without those calls, rpotor’s ea had -471. the ea was ahead on double entries, catching +99 that i did not have by hand. holidays hurt the ea by -216. the rest of the difference was made up by a couple of errors the ea made by missing the correct stop point. it is likely these were caused by spread. i would like to see the ea add 3 pips to buy entries and short exits where spreads come into play.
the second chart compares rpotor’s ea with dinesh’s. rpotor shows total +177 and dinesh shows +262. the trades are very similar except dinesh is trading sunday and missed a couple of correct stops. settings for dinesh’s ea were: delta 1, delta monday 11, max sl 60, sunday candle false, use be false, and close friday false.
the third chart compares dinesh’s ea on the settings above with another run changing only max sl to 25. first run = +262, second run -374.
it is a limited study, one pair for one month. we have to be cautious, but it suggests that tight stop losses may be counter-productive by canceling out too many good trades. the spread causing slightly premature entries and/or exits seems to result in pretty consistent negatives. double entries appear to provide an advantage. in this case, trading on the holiday was negative and carrying through the weekend could go either way. it is clear that judgment calls reduced losses. while i do appreciate those experienced traders who have looked at those calls and concurred that they would have made the same, it would be good if we could continue to figure out what constitutes a good judgment call and how to code it.
i am always open to other suggestions. run some of these and see if you get similar results. think about what accounts for the differences in results and make any recommendations. thanks.
Hey, Pipwoof, I have noticed many a trade come within 5 pips or less (or even within the spread) of a TP and it turn the other way. I have been keeping notice of said situations and, although you would be giving up a potential few pips here or there, it looks like it would help gains and cut a few losses to take those @ around +20.
For an EA to to this I’ll leave to the programmers. I wont hesitate to close my profitable trade over 5 pips. I’d rater gain 20 than lose any pips when there is no need to.
If you take 20 with base, then, bring AIR to BE and RT to, say, -25, you are now only risking 25 instead of the entire 75 (based on an entry on a quarter e.g. 1.2325). If the price retraces, worst that happens is you are net -5 pips or so. Maybe price will hit BE and stop AIR, in which case RT still stands to gain. Either way, your risk is mitigated.
Will there be trades that get stopped completely and the prices turns to go profitable? Yes, but that’s trading. I have seen that too many times to laugh at the thought of the situation.
Hi dineshydv,
I had three trades open on the AudUsd tonight that was no where near the daily high or low of Friday. Not sure what to think. Is there a bug in that section of the EA?
Please take a look if you have a chance, thanks!
-Armstrong
I Don’t know how to thank for u Pipwoof. u’re the genius one… I’m still newbie at this fx. And i adopt breakout tech. But u just open my sight that my tech was far away from u. I learn very much advantage and can upgrade my tech now. Maybe at least i should say this improvement to everyone that read my comment:
- U teach me how to exit (thanks)
- U teach me how to maximize the trend (thanks again)
- U teach me how to multiply the profit by using more than one pair currency (thanks x3)
Maybe later if u don’t mind, i want to be ur special student…:7:
thank you for the kind words. for the past three weeks these markets remind me of a cartoon i saw many years ago. a couple is lying in bed with a contented look on their faces. he turns to her and says, “i really enjoyed that, especially the part where you moved.” triple threat needs the markets to move and they just haven’t this month. in fact, it has been some time since i have seen this much tight ranging. as a result, the method has taken an absolute pounding.
apart from the system, however, there are certain trading principles that have stood the test of time and, as an admitted newbie, i admire how you have picked up on those. even if a particular strategy has to be discarded, i believe you will find the three points you made above will serve you well over time. 1. exits are always more important than entries, 2. maximizing the trend is exactly the same as the ancient adage, “let your profits run,” and, 3. using diversification, i.e., multiple pairs and multiple positions, helps us manage a market that has no intention of being predictable.
consider also developing a money management system that suits your style and risk tolerance. the easiest for me to stay on top of is simply a fixed percentage of my account per trade or per position. as the system succeeds, i am steadily increasing trade size and, as it draws down, i am steadily decreasing. i also have what i call a “paper point.” i monitor the method and the pairs with equity charts. at a certain drawdown point, i revert to paper (demo) trading and wait for the method to right itself and start making pips again.
if you don’t mind, one last bit of advice. don’t get too enamored with anyone, including me. reflecting on my early trading days, i learned that i had to find a balance between cynicism and skepticism. living cynically takes the joy out of life, so stop short of that. but, question everything and everyone. much of the information offered is, at best, suspect, even if the provider meant well. always check everything out for yourself. there are reasons why people lose so much money in these markets. the more you understand about why that money is lost, the better your odds of surviving. as a newbie, the first goal of trading is not to make money, it is to avoid losing money. best wishes to you!
Yes, I saw that to master… hehe… this day…
Okay, i take ur last advice… thank u
Is this just another of the mechanical systems that dont work,perhaps we’re looking for the impossable,you do have to wonder dont you.Still congrats to the people who have a go at producing them,but I think we.re all probably floging a dead horse.
I’ve been quietly lurking on this thread but haven’t really posted because I don’t really have anything constructive to add. A possible explanation for what’s happening right now is simply because it’s August. I’ve read two or three threads over the last couple weeks stating that August is the worst month of the year for trading due to low volatility, traders on vacation, etc. I didn’t look closely at the back test results but you might want to compare some past August results with what’s going on now.
@Pipwoof, I never heard that joke before…literally made me LOL.
Nick
Hi Pipwoof! Long time since i last posted… what a fine day it is today! 
Triple Threat Exit had me smiling all day… that AUD EUR GBP combination punched it’s way through resistance and let the profits run! love Triple Threat !!! (by the way, i disappeared for sometime posting as was experimenting on PPoints S&R as entries and sort of comparing them with the usual TT entries)
also just to add… already exited my trades today as i wanted to sleep already without thinking of any open trades it’s already 3AM here GMT+8
Hi Guys,
Just to let you know this system is working very well for me manually, but the ea’s are a little off. Last night was a great night for me walked away with 317 pips in total. And i still left more pips on the table ,cause i needed to sleep !
Pipwoof your system functions very well. Don’t give up on it just yet. I suppose we need a good coder to refine the ea’s. Dinesh and raptor have done an excellent job just needs a little tweaking is all for the ea’s. And yes august is traditionally a flat kinda month always has been maybe always will be who knows.
t-rex, thanks for the encouraging words. i don’t know what to make of this august. i know we are taking a beating. of course, i will continue to work with the approach at least through september to see if it can recover this month’s losses.
considering prior august results, i did the year and a half by hand and was pushing +2,000 last august, 2011. without going through august 2010 by hand, i did run rpotor’s ea for all pairs with these results in dollars:
g/j +270
a/u -10
e/u +126
g/u +1,379
e/j -445
no judgment calls here.
pat, really hope you’ve been on vacation or something and unable to trade this first three weeks in august. we’ve done better the past couple of days, but really took it in the shorts before that. holding my breath to see if it picks up now. thanks for the post.
good to hear some positive news. thanks for the encouragement.
no, not giving up on this one yet. this is not the first approach i’ve had to wonder about. i’ll give it time to apologize for these picks.
Man, I’ll tell you what… I just added both EAs to the GBP pairs and the E/U a few days ago. First day of trading 0.01 lots took about $15 out of the account. Now that’s all made back and it’s up about another $25. I just added it to the E/J, wishing I’d done it yesterday (mind you, it’s all on a demo for testing to make sure it all works fine, so I didn’t technically ‘lose’ anything) before the spikes. I think the breakout strategy has great potential, but more than anything I’m loving the whole ‘triple threat exit’ strategy. I have considered something similar but never actually implemented it. Dead set, I’m loving it mate.
Regarding the results - I think a couple of other posts about August talked about how it sucks historically, but I’m going to say that’s not necessarily the case, as you pointed out with last year’s results. I think the A/U has just been in a VERY tight range since it hit the 1.5000 - 1.6000 area. I wouldn’t even consider putting the strategy / EAs to use on this pair at the moment, even though it has broken below the 1.5000 handle. In fact, the only trades I’ve placed on the pair in the last few weeks has been shorts around the 1.6000 handle… The other pairs seem to have more volatility. A/J even had more volatility than A/U this month, so I reckon if you had chosen a different pair to manually record the results for, the results may have been a lot more positive.
Hi Pat - What conclusion did you come to in relation to pivots ? I have tended to favour trend lines and conventional S&R, feeling that PP are rather arbitrary, despite many favour them. Your thoughts ?
Oh, sorry guys. Maybe reply via PM as the thought is outside the scope of the thread. Thanks.