Hello there.
After reading your post thoroughly, I decided today to give it a try. I will work on EUR/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/USD, although I can’t see any triggering appetite for now. Any suggestions are more than welcome.
Cheers!
Akis
hello pipwoof,
actually i really dont understand ur strategy but quite interested, so i try it. But really consufed, I was monitor few currency pair, but few pair already over that High point and low point more that 20pips after new day open. I attach G/J for example.
Questions:
1). I’m frm malaysia, is it differ new day open figure?
2). is it everyday can trade as your strategy?
3). Wat is the real condition?
4). I use EA frm rpotor “daybreak” no sl and tp setting?
hope u understand my english…thanks
Helo alexpower, if u don’t mind and serious about this system, all of ur question has been answered at the previous post… But i think first, u mustn’t depend on EA, but why the EA do that…
U must appreciate Pipwoof share his system by read first, not question first…
Sorry about that, i’am still newbie too, but i will work very hard and will become Pipwoof_2 someday… ^.^
alex, wirabayu06 is correct in the sense that there is a lot of information previously posted to the thread about what defines a day. this is my ibfx chart on gmt 0. counting the bars on your chart, it looks like your platform starts about 3 hours earlier. i think that would be gmt -3.
in any case, your high and low of yesterday looks just like mine. i see on your chart the same high wick and the same low wick, so yesterday for you would be the same high and low as yesterday for me. it may not always work out that way because your platform has a few different hours within your “day.” if you wanted to trade exactly on gmt 0, you would just need to define your day as starting three hours later. if you decide to do it that way, to avoid confusion, you might want to take the period separators drawn by the platform off and draw your own.
you can see that we are looking for our entries immediately after the close of one day, so an open of the new day that is 20 pips away from the close of the prior day is virtually impossible. i can only conclude that you haven’t quite pictured the method yet.
so, yesterday’s high was 125.50. we add one pip and make a long entry point at 125.51. the low of that long down wick yesterday was 124.06, so we would be going short at 124.05 today. we might also notice that yesterday’s range was pretty wide, covering about 150 pips and our open today was right in the middle of yesterday’s range. this being a slow day, it is not likely that we will get into a trade today on this pair.
if you’re still awake when you read this, it would be a good time to see if you can get rpotor’s ea working using this pair because you can experiment without triggering trades. the ea is not completely accurate at this time, so don’t leave it alone to trade for you. you should be able to use it to set initial entry stops and initial stop losses. i would monitor it after that to be sure it is getting the trailing stops set accurately. also, be sure you delete it when finished, 'cause it will continue to place orders for following days. it is a real time saver when it comes to calculating and entering 12 orders per pair.
try setting your time on one day. attach the ea. be sure your permissions are all on, i.e., expert advisors toggle is green, live trading is permitted, and ea is smiling. give it one full minute to place entry orders. once it places the orders, you can go back to one hour tf if you wish.
gbp/jpy
8-1, sell 122.20, -30, -30, -30
8-2, sell 121.71, -30, -30, -30
8-3, buy 122.61, -15, -15, -15 *
8-6, sell 122.62, +35, +35, +35
8-7, buy 123.04, -30, -30, -30
8-8, nt
8-9, buy 122.97, -20, -20, -20
8-10, sell 122.37, +35, +10, +10
8-13, sell 122.46, -30, -30, -30
8-14, buy 123.09, +40, +40, +40
8-15, buy 123.91, -45, -45, -45
8-16, buy 124.03, +45, +45, +75
8-17, buy 124.93, -20, -20, -20
8-20, buy 124.99, -25, -25, -25
8-21, buy 125.01, +25, +25, +25*
8-22, sell 124.60, +30, +10, +10
8-24, sell 124.30, be, be, be*
closed trades: -165
aud/usd
8-1, sell 1.0474, -25, -25, -25
8-2, sell 10445, -30, -30, -30
8-6, sell 1.0543, -10, -10, -10 *
8-7, buy 1.0593, -45, -45, -45
8-8, sell 1.0531, -20, -20, -20 *
8-9, buy 1.0582, -20, -20, -20*
8-10, sell 1.0551, +25, +25, +25
8-13, sell 1.0539, +35, +10, +10
8-14, sell 1.0494, -30, -30, -30
8-15, sell 1.0478, -45, -45, -45
8-16, buy 1.0514, -40, -40, -40
8-17, sell 1.0472, +45, +45, +45
8-20, buy 1.0446, +25, +25, be
8-21, buy 1.0468, +30, +5, +5
8-22, sell 1.0446, -30, -30, -30
8-23, buy 1.0517, -20, -20, -20
8-24, sell 1.0419, +15, +15, +15*
closed trades: -560
eur/usd
8-1, buy 1.2330, -30, -30, -30
8-2, buy 1.2336, +35, +35, +10
8-6, sell 1.2371, -5, -5, -5 *
8-7, buy 1.2429, -30, -30, -30
8-8, sell 1.2374, be, be, be *
8-9, sell 1.2324, +45, +20, +20
8-10, sell 1.2265, -10, -10, -10*
8-13, sell 1.2264, -40, -40, -40
8-14, buy 1.2373, -45, -45, -45
8-15, sell 1.2315, +40, +15, +15
8-16, sell 1.2262, -40, -40, -40
8-17, buy 1.2373, -25, -25, -25
8-20, buy 1.2351, -25, -25, -25
8-21, buy 1.2369, +30, +80, 205
8-22, buy 1.2487, +35, +85, +85
8-23, buy 1.2538, +35, +35, +35
8-24, sell 1.2534, +30, +30, +30
closed trades: +200
gbp/usd
8-1, sell 1.5623, -30, -30, -30
8-2, sell 1.5528, -50, -50, -50
8-6, sell 1.5617, +40, +40, +40
8-7, buy 1.5653, -30, -30, -30
8-8, nt
8-9, buy 1.5677, -25, -25, -25
8-10, sell 1.5603, be, be, be*
8-13, buy 1.5694, -20, -20, -20*
8-14, buy 1.5717, -45, -45, -45
8-15, sell 1.5669, -30, -30, -30
8-16, sell 1.5658, -40, -40, -40
8-20, sell 1.5671, -30, -30, -30
8-21, buy 1.5717, +30, +55, +155
8-22, buy 1.5804, +45, +70, +70
8-23, buy 1.5886, -10, -10, -10*
8-24, sell 1.5850, +25, +25, +25
closed trades: = -310
eur/jpy
8-1, sell 95.74, -30, -30, -30
8-2, buy 96.46, +25, be, be
8-3, buy 96.98, +25, +25, +25
8-6, sell 97.12, +25, +10, +10
8-7, buy 97.69, -45, -45, -45
8-8, sell 96.81, -20, -20, -20 *
8-9, sell 96.55, -20, -20, -20*
8-10, sell 96.30, +30, +30, +30
8-13, sell 95.93, -25, -25, -25
8-14, buy 96.91, +30, +5, +5
8-15, sell 96.52, -45, -45, -45
8-16, buy 97.42, +30, +55, +30
8-17, buy 98.17, -20, -20, -20*
8-20, buy 98.28, -30, -30, -30
8-21, buy 98.35, +40, +40, +15
8-24, sell 98.25, be, be, be*
closed trades: = -220
five pair portfolio august to date: -1,055
- judgment call affects outcome
Whoa… I’m trying to think of a way where this would not wipe out an account. Obviously not leveraging much is the main solution… But then your profits would be minimal too… Perhaps a stoploss of -300 pips should be set for every month, where if your monthly total goes this far negative, you stop and wait till the next month. Obviously the reason you will have negative months is due to the market being range bound… If you reach the stoploss and wait, market conditions will more then likely be more favorable the following month.
I’m not sure how good of records you have of your backtests, but it would not be hard to go back and look at your results and see how this may affect the results. Probably will reduce pup results by 15-20% I would imagine, but you would be able to continue using the strategy at a higher leverage because your risk of ruin would be lower.
Another suggestion, although fundamentally changing the concept of the daybreak system, from a carpet bombing strategy of taking every trade to a more selective strategy… Is to use an economic calendar to find high impact news releases or statements, and set your orders to capture those days… It’s rare that you will see price shoot past the previous days range and close above or below the range if there are no fundamentals to back it up… You would filter a ton of trades that way.
banker, i do appreciate the input. we were actually in worse shape earlier this month, pushing -2,000 pips. of course, we would have needed to find a way to stop the bleeding, if only temporarily. at this time, our ea’s are just not working well enough for us to do a comprehensive backtest or to optimize some variables, like stop losses. my original data came by hand for eighteen previous months and i simply did not see a situation where the entire portfolio drew down like this. but, it is true that the markets will follow every murphy’s law ever penned.
there are still a number of untested suggestions to control losses and we have been hoping for an accurate ea to test those. until and if we get that, i feel some obligation to continue posting results when traded as published. if nothing else, as a warning that we should all know when to step aside from a trading method.
as previously stated, the tt has to do with exits. i chose the daybreak entries out of famiarity and convenience, but certainly encourage traders to consider this exit strategy with their favorite entries. if that happens to be a kind of news trading, so be it. coincidentally, the only indicator i have posted to this thread is a news retriever that places events on your charts.
Didn’t robopip automate the strategy to backtest? Have you tried getting the EA from him?
Hi pipwoof and everyone else in this thread.
An idea occurred to me earlier on how to minimize losses in this strategy and I don’t know if you’ll like it, but here it is:
First position (TAKE PROFIT): Enter as normal.
Second position (AIR): Enter as normal.
Third position (RETRACE): Entry order at TP of the first position.
This way, any initial fakeout will result to losses on only two positions, TP and AIR.
If the limit of TP is hit, and price reverses - the gains on TP and the losses on AIR will cancel each other and your loss is only at RETRACE.
But if price goes your way, you can still “catch the wave” with AIR and RETRACE.
What do you think?
If price were to never touch TP, this would effectively cut losses by 1/3. Especially, in a month like this where we have lost so much.
However, if price were to reach TP and retrace, (assuming the SL of RT were placed @ or near BE of the original entry) we would lose those 25+ pips cutting our profits. This move happens fairly often.
Also, if price continued to climb from TP, we would be forfeiting the 25+ pips from original entry to TP. Would the cut in losses overcome the opportunity costs of entering TP at the later price? We would have to look back to see.
Hi Guy’s
For the last week i have been using the different ea’s posted on this thread in different accounts (demo). I will have to get time to print out and post the results but i have had success with only two of the ea’s
The ea Daybreak v1.1 dinesh posted for all of us ( thank you dinesh very much) works pretty good except for the stop losses which don’t set right not sure exactly what’s goin on. Dinesh help!!
also this week i tried out the Daybreak-TT-order entry v 3.22 (rptor i think, sorry if i’m wrong) but this ea at least this week for me rocked trading .01 lots i am up 863 bucks in my oanda account trading .01 lots! when i trade i trade 1 lot so this would have been an excellent week for me. This ea doesn’t close the orders each day but as of now when i just came home and opened my account I’m sitting here up 615 pips just for today!
Pipwoof correct me if i am wrong but it seems from your posts lately that you seem a little down over your system, don’t be you have a winner here that is a fact and in a few weeks i am moving to your system over to my “real money” account but i will be watching very very close. The ea’s just need a few tweaks but if i could get them just right i would have no problem letting them run on my live account, hell i may even start studying programming…nah would like too but maybe one day!
Anyway i normally just lurk about but felt i had to let everyone know that at least this week the system worked wonderfully.
T
This week was much better for the three pairs that I am tracking but we are still out a bit for the month. The week was +57 pips.
To date(july 30->aug 24) These are my results for the g/j, a/u, e/u:
TT: -1187.3
TT w/ base x2: -1299.2
TT w/ RT x2: -1790.5
ITT: +891.3
ITT w/ base x2: 952.8
ITT w/RT x2: 1128.2
This manually traded on Oanda FxTrade.
I will say that, especially this week, there were plenty of trades where a judgement call would have netted more pips. Most calls, I think, most traders would have taken. I am sticking to the mechanical SL rules though. One trade on g/j ran from the 16th through the 23rd for RT to grab an extra 100 pips. Had a call been made to close earlier, it wouldn’t have gotten the gain.
Best of luck to you all.
accurate observation. no matter how strong you think you are and how much you’ve seen, trading can mess with you. the down i feel is probably less to do with the method and more that feeling of betrayal the market can give you. after years of experience and months of research, you make your tiny offering to the gods of fortune and they scorn it on the month some of us go live. thankfully, it was a very small live for me and i hope for others. but, it can’t help dampening the overall enthusiasm. you know, we cannot be blamed for pursuing our own interests, so we drift off to other prospects, our ea’s are almost nearly but not quite hardly there, and the team spirit suffers a bit. that’s normal. it’s not a religion, it’s a business proposition.
at this point, i want to believe our august results are a fluke of a temporarily stagnant market, which is going to affect any method that relies on more than the smallest movements. i am encouraged to note that the portfolio was down close to -2,000 pips at one point this month and has recovered about half of that lately. but, we never know, do we? this would not be the first system i have had to shelve shortly after bringing it on line, but it is the one i get credit or blame for and the one i can’t help taking a little personally. you wouldn’t want it any other way, would you? i mean, if my heart isn’t in it, why should you even consider it?
i appreciate the encouragement and positivism some of you continue to give. i have been so impressed by the level of intelligence and maturity this thread has attracted. we will all know soon enough if this setback is temporary or permanent and i may be among the first to declare tt dead.
this is also a good enough place to address a related matter. on the one hand, i feel an obligation to consider every idea that might mitigate a loss month like this and i know people are trying to help when they make suggestions. i promise to continue being open to those efforts. on the other hand, i had already looked at many ideas long before publishing and, so far, haven’t really connected with anything that i have confidence would be an OVERALL improvement. i’m no genius and i’m certainly not saying there is no room for improvement, but i did a few applications before taking this public. without trying to be too fancy here, this is a mathematical model based on a concept that might be called “hemming in” the market.
undoubtedly, some of you have observed that the average stop-loss is -37 X 3 pips and our average tp is +37 X 1 pips. that won’t look good on ratio studies and the only thing that saves the method is the profit potential of positions 2 and 3. if we can just get to that first point, the other two get “hemmed in” by the quarters parameters and have a certain freedom to run. for our test period, g/j long positions averaged +95 pips from entry point to high of the day and often ran +200 or more. plus, our position(s) may still be alive if the next day continues in our direction. i suppose all this is to say that some thought was put into this. i do want to be careful about the effect we might have on the overall approach if we start tweaking because august has frustrated us.
i believe the open question now has to do with whether we are seeing a characteristic of the market that has to be dealt with on a permanent basis by adjusting a method that otherwise worked for the previous eighteen months or whether we are dealing with that one spike bar that occurs so infrequently we have to just take the loss and go on. believe me when i say i have seen it both ways and know better than to attach my ego to either of those outcomes.
some of you will have a frame of reference for this, so i will go ahead and use the lingo, but maybe make a little effort to explain to those who may not get it. the fewer variables we employ, the more degrees of freedom we have. the more degrees of freedom we have, the more likely our correlation is to recur. when we tweak, that is adding a variable and reducing degrees of freedom. we can quickly get perilously close to “curve fitting” which, in this case, would be trying to make our system fit the august data. we do that because we’re concerned and feel like we need to do something. there are any number of ways we can build a system that makes a fortune with august data. but, it probably wouldn’t have worked in june or july and, more importantly, probably won’t work in september and october. another way of saying this is that the more requirements we put on a system, the less likely it is to perform in the future as it did in the past. the quality of working “most of the time” is referred to as “robustness” and that is what we really want.
aaawild, writing is obviously cathartic for me and helps me focus. though it probably wasn’t your intention and now you have to suffer through this novella post, thank you for the opportunity.
thanks for the work you continue to do. i know the judgment calls remain a sticky wicket and i am concerned at how we might code more of those. probably some just won’t fit, but it is comforting to think that most experienced traders can see when to exercise discretion.
pipwoof
I liked you little novel, thinking out loud is ok bud, don’t sweat it. Now let’s look at all this:
First your past data shows that your system is viable.
Second tweaking this to fit a rough spot will just make the system worse. You have a track record stick with it.
The market is a fickle mistress she WILL take back some of what she gives that is a fact. There does not exist a system that works 100 % of the time. My trial runs , From my point of view, shows me that the judgment calls are where you will cut loses. Now how to program this into an ea i have no idea what can or cannot be done.
I mean really pipwoof if you had traded this system over the last few years you would be so far ahead a bad month would be nothing in the overall picture, a glitch if you will. so don’t give up , i won’t, even if i have to take the time to learn how to program these darn things. I believe this can work, i have seen it work with my own eyes and you have too pipwoof.
Be strong my friend and keep posting
Has anyone heard from rptor or dinesh??? Man we could really use their help with the ea’s hopefully they’ll be back soon!!
T
Not a problem. I have almost as much self interest in this as you do. I know you can see a failed month and abandon a system and spend the next 2 years shooting at moving targets (read ‘wasted time’ here). So, if this one performs even 50% of what it has in the previous year and a half, anyone who followed it this next 17 months will be quite pleased.
Also, I keep the mechanical results knowing that value judgment calls tend to put your results further in the green. This way, I can see the results with no input from personal disposition. I guess that’s the scientist in me wanting raw data to extrapolate results from…
Guys just download the FXone platform… Making EA’s from excel… Anyone could make this triple threat EA in 4 hours max on that platform… No more excuses about having to be reliant on people with mql experience.
very good point banker928 i’ll give it a shot thank you
T
I’ve been using it for a bit, if you do try it out and need some pointers… I’d be happy to help you out.
But if you are halfway fluent with excel, you’ll be right at home.
I am fairly confident I could crank this out in an hour, but you would need the platform to run the EA anyways… And this would be a good one to start on if you were new to it.