Triple threat exit strategy

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524

Like aawild said, " I believe this can work, i have seen it work with my own eyes and you have too pipwoof"
And like Dr.Pipslow (My second favorite guru after u) said, “There’s no perfect setup, but profitable setup in fx”

I believe and admited ur method greatly changed my trading plan. But still, i don’t like mechanical coz this is not “my work”, but ur work then i only copied that. If i fail with this method, the blame will be yours at first though… And i don’t wanna do that…

Second, as a “baby” i’am still need a lot of lesson and experience on fx. If i choose mechanical trade, i think there’s not much for it. Especially, i want to be long-term trader.

I almost forgot, the last but not least word from me as ur new student, i must report my progress to u ^.^
Now i combine ur method with S&P lvl3. I only enter the pairs which that “hot” ur system valued. And because of u, now i more flexible at every pairs… May oppinion, this August only have one S&P lvl3 (i scale up the average trend about only ±160 pips), and the price movement seesaw only at S&P lvl 1&2. That’s why ur method won’t work on August. I studied more on June and July, they have more than three S&P lvl3 (not seesaw movement for ur method).

Thank u very much Pipwoof ^.^… U’re the most my favorite “guru” in this site. (Second is Dr.Pipslow)…
And because of u too, my confidence now reach the lvl that i’am ready to take real account after six months in demo… I will work very hard and hope everything will go smoothly…

525

Not a bad resource for this style of trading or for the non-programmer. I’ll have to dig deeper into the documentation to see about changing stop losses and such but, at first glance, it looks promising. Thank you.

526

If you get stuck I don’t mind helping… Just give it an honest go first… You can adjust stops and limits as price moves in the EA

This platform’s potential blows MT4 out of the water… There are things you can do that you simply cannot do in MT4, such as use multiple currency pair price movements in an EA for arbitrage… You can write a spreadsheet to display your own currency heat map… Than actually incorporate that into an EA… You can use Excel’s random number generator to provide random entries or exits… I can continue but I think I explained my point. :slight_smile:

527

Hi pipwoof, how’s doing.??

My AUDUSD results are very much different from what you posted. Below is for AUDUSD July-12 month with default SL and no Break-Even. Its almost 1K pips for July-12 month.

AUDUSD_Normal_setting. Default SL & no-BE.jpg700×163 15.4 KB

Below are the results for AUDUSD July-12 month using max-SL of 30pips and break-even trade after 21pips. (this was your judgement call, isn’t it. As per [this] post ). And we have profit of only aprox 300pips. Much less than without judgement call.

AUDUSD_Judgement_max_SL30_BE21.jpg700×163 15.6 KB

The difference is obvivious. For July-12 judgement call induces more losses. Also I have some doubt regarding the comparison drawn in [this] post

  1. On 7-2, 7-5, why you closed at loss of 15pips.?? As per [this] post of yours, you said you wait for atleast 25pips SL.
  2. On 7-9, trade didnt reached 21 pips profit (BE point) but you closed at +5. Whats the judgement call logic here.???
  3. On 7-10, EA made all trades BE after 21pips, then how come you got -15pips.??
    Also for day you didn’t traded (holidays), lets not count EA results as well. It makes comparison consistent.

It looks like judgement call are quite ambiguous. You need to define consistent rules for judgement call. Sometime you are applying a rule and sometime not.

I believe we need to go back and have to define proper “judgement call” rules to code it. Will wait for your rules. Ball is in your court - the more properly rules are defined, the more easier it is to code. Nevertheless, your system & SL-PL strategy is great and I am all praise for it. But I am just trying to make sure that EA results matches as that of yours.

528

Dinesh, I appreciate your patience and willingness to continue working toward an accurate ea. It seems that we have very few problems left to resolve and we can give this thing a good test. I’ll address each issue one at a time and propose a solution.

  1.  Judgment calls seem to be the worst.  I know how frustrating it must be to work with these and I accept responsibility for communicating how they came about. In the interests of disclosure and those experienced traders who have shared with me that they understand the calls and would have made the same, let me address those in July and then will propose a solution for the ea.

I made four judgment calls in July on the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], 5[SUP]th[/SUP], 9[SUP]th[/SUP],and 16[SUP]th[/SUP]. Three of those are Mondays and I have underscored my concerns about Monday trades. I have no good excuse for the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] except to say that the stop was over -40 pips away, it was the day after a holiday, and all four of these trades showed a similar pattern. In this case, they were all sells. Each time, they trigger the trade and head in the right direction for a period of time. Then, they stall and make a reversal. On the chart, we see a lowest low pivot, bars on the left coming down, bars on the right going up. Let me suggest that all traders keep their eyes on the chart, especially on days that can be difficult to trade, and continue to cut losses. You may miss a great move here and there, but the pips you save will likely be worth the decision.

But, that is nothing we have to code. Rather than wear ourselves out trying to objectify something that is in the eye of the beholder, let us leave that in the minds of each individual. Some will prefer to give their trades more leeway and some may cut even quicker than I did. I suggest we code Monday as optional. Monday can be true or false. For testing purposes, we will set Monday to false and not trade that day at all. For traders who want to watch that day carefully and understand the need to be involved in the decision process, the option to enter is available. If the ea is tested with Monday true, it will continue to operate around standard tt stop losses.

  1.  This one may be just a fluke of platform differences, but let me point it out on our way to discussing the spread.  Evaluating visually, it is easy to say that a target was achieved or a stop denied because of a fraction of a pip. Look at July 12. We both go short at 1.0177 on the 4:00 bar.  I show a low on the 14:00 bar of 1.00995. This may not happen often enough to worry about and we may wish to just leave it alone, but the effect on my visual interpretation is that 1.0100 was breached and it is time to reset stops. I captured more pips because the ea did not recognize that number as a breach of the quarter. If we think we need a solution, I would say ANY breach of a quarter, even a tenth, constitutes a time to change. 

  2.  Holidays will probably balance out. In real life, I don’t trade the holiday or the day before. This might be more difficult to code than it is worth. July a/u just happened to catch lousy trades on both the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and the 4[SUP]th[/SUP], losing more than -200 pips. 

  3.  Holidays notwithstanding, we need to eliminate Sunday trades and I try to close on Friday to be flat for the weekend. Sunday trades are definitely losers, but I haven’t studied the choice to close Friday or carry over and it may go either way. Could we have an option here? True or false, close all trades Friday by 22:00. 

  4.  Rather than factor a lot of input to adjust for spreads, I suggest we add a constant of three pips on all long entries and all short exits. I know the e/u is closer to two and the g/j is closer to four, but perhaps this is an adequate average. Adding this will prevent a short trade stop-loss at 1.0225 from being triggered by a high of 1.0223 because the spread caught it.

Going back to spreadsheeting our trades, when I eliminate my three Monday judgment calls altogether by not trading on Monday and bring the call on the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in line with standard stop procedure, I get +646 pips. Perfectly acceptable. When I eliminate your holiday and Sunday trades, you have +587. The only remaining differences are a result of spreads and Fridays.

I hope my proposals will be acceptable to you and you can program them successfully. I understand you have a life and other interests, but those following the thread will surely thank you for the contribution.

529

Dinesh, i did just notice that the friday option is already programmed. Sorry.

530

[Quote] Its almost 1K pips for July-12 month. [Quote]

dinesh, how did you get this number? my run from july 1 to aug 1, 2012, shows about +330. settings: delta 1, monday delta 11, sl 60 (uses regular quarters stops, right?), sunday candle false (uses my sunday data as a “day” for high and low), be false, fri close true at 22:00.

531

Bad news in Japan. Typhoon. That is a good thing about this set up, you can profit off of huge price swings on unforeseen natural disasters. This is reminiscent of a couple years ago when that tsunami hit and the yen tanked. Don’t think it’ll dip that drastically this time though.

532

fundamentals are so screwy. i’m watching every base currency fall against the yen. glad i don’t try to predict.

533

The yen originally went up from tsunami because of safe haven flow… The yen tanked shortly after because BOJ intervened to weaken the yen.

534

Thank you boj. I was holding a short position from a couple days prior. Worked out well for me :wink:

535

Fxone is looking like it has a good chance of being easy to make any ea you want. I don’t really care for the charting. Maybe I just haven’t gotten it figured out yet.

I do have the basic buying and selling rules made in it though. Ill test it tomorrow to see if it enters correctly. Next on the list is making stops move like they should. I don’t think it’ll be difficult.

536

Yeh I don’t use it for charting at all… No reason to really, just have MT4 for that…

537

Are you guys having consistent profits with this system?

538

Too soon to call it. I’ll get the numbers crunched and posted by tomorrow.

539

Does anyone currently have an Excel spreadsheet set up to display the equity curve on individual currencies ? I recall Pipwoof said he did this. I could, with some head scratching set this up myself but it is many years since I used spreadsheets and I surely would appreciate a profile if someone could help.
Sincere thanks,
AltosT

540

PipWoof,

I know your frustration and i am sure many more here feel it also. To you think you have finally got it and you end up with a -2000 pip month. It can be very disheartening.

My recommendations from what I have read i just read a bit of this thread this morning. I understand that you use the first TP level in your system to lock in a bit of a gain, but from what i read it seems the bulk of the profits come from the other 2 pairs running, have you thought of testing with all 3 pairs with the same rules, meaning pair 1 no tp but let it run like the rest? I don’t know but i have just have a gut feeling that it might work better.

Secondly, maybe define very specific rules for discretion or cut it out all completely. I know 9 out of 10 times when i am failing in my trading, actually i can say 100% of the time when i have failed it’s been because of my discretionary calls and not following my method and systems.

[B]Thirdly, and I think this might be the most important recommendation. [/B] Trading is a general passion with many specialties. Speaking for myself i would have just as much fun and fulfillment trading stocks, forex, futures, ect. if i was doing well in any of them. My biggest recommendation is try this strategy out on the big index’s like the S&P, DOW Jones.

What i have personally noticed is my strategies work [B]much better[/B] on the major index’s because they tend to be less volatile. Also, most people are drawn to forex because of leverage and using a small amount of money to make big gains. If this is a concern about trading indicies, you can trade futures. Open 24hrs with a 15min break at close, closed Saturday, and opens Sunday just like Forex, and you can make just as much if not more then forex per trade depending on how you position yourself.

There are many platforms that will allow you to open up a demo account for 2 weeks or so, global futures, mbtrading to name two. I personally use global futures for my live account as they have the lowest comissions and their platform is much better then mbtrading.

Anyway don’t give up man I know we try something doesn’t work usually give up and then go looking for the next year to arrive at the same spot. I have a strong feeling you have found something really unique and great to be very profitable. I will try to look more into this when i get some free time possibly on the futures side.

541

Also, on a completely different note. I’ve read the brokers mentioned on here they are all retail. You need to test this on a direct ECN straight through broker. Where you don’t have ridiculous spreads. MBtrading is by far the best if you are in the USA they have insanely low commissions and you don’t see spread widening unless that’s what the market makers are doing. It’s like trading stocks you see actual bids and asks, not what the BS retail broker fluffing up their spreads, this will def. help with the performance of this system also.

Also, some brokers advertise ECN but they are not true ECN’s Oanda being an example. Only one i found is mbtrading like i mentioned and also, fxopen. Anyway hope this helps.

542

  1. Ok, will add Monday trade flag.

  2. Regarding your #2 point ( when you interpreted 1.00995 to 1.0100 ), I agree that its very-very close to our target and trade should be closed. But also think that price can come back and hits out target. A price is a price. We can set a buffer that if price reaches TP±delta, close the trade, but we will loose few pips on all trades. It can’t be coded case to case basis, unless there’s a defination point. Better if we make it manuall interpretation only.

  3. Regarding spread, it all depends on broker. For most of the broker, spread is always within limits unless news event.

Do you see any other modification.??

543

[QUOTE=pipwoof;389877]

Its almost 1K pips for July-12 month. [Quote]

dinesh, how did you get this number? my run from july 1 to aug 1, 2012, shows about +330. settings: delta 1, monday delta 11, sl 60 (uses regular quarters stops, right?), sunday candle false (uses my sunday data as a “day” for high and low), be false, fri close true at 22:00.

Yeh, its as per original strategy.
delta 1, Monday delta 11, SL 60 (value greater than 50 will use quarters stops ), Sunday candle TRUE ( my broker has Sunday candle, so used Friday’s high/low for Monday’s trades ), BE false, Friday close default. I used thinkforex for testing…