Triple threat exit strategy

[pipwoof]

I like to use some Price Action rules for my long and short entry orders and then exit with the help from a trade management EA.
So in this case I only would like to use the Triple Threat Exit rules from the EA and not the DayBreak entry part, is it possible to use the EA this way?
I dont know how to write any MQL4 code.

And thanks a lot to all of you for a very interesting thread!

HKO

i originally presented tt as an exit strategy to be used with your choice of entries. i can’t program mt4 either, so it would be up to someone else to take out the entry part, leaving the trade management. sorry i couldn’t help.

[Nidolap]

christinaa, i currently trade on two platforms, oanda and ibfx. ibfx is the one i used for backtesting and continue to use for trading db/tt. ibfx is gmt and starts feeding data on sunday afternoon at 22:00. so, by 00:00 monday i will have two hourly bars from ibfx. i use the high and low of these bars to place trades for monday. i know others are using friday hi/lo. can’t really say if there is an advantage one way or the other, just keep in mind that the range for a whole day will be larger than the range for a couple of bars. i think some use friday’s data because their platform doesn’t feed sunday. pepperstone, for example, is a five-day feed, ny time. i have also urged extra caution on mondays, requiring a larger move to enter and being prepared to jump out on a reversal. for testing purposes, i have recommended to the programmers that we eliminate mondays altogether because that is the day i use a lot of discretion and we really haven’t found a good way to program judgment calls.

regarding results, robopip was probably unknowingly kind in using july’s data. that was a good month for the suggested portfolio. had he chosen august, we would have a different picture, indeed! i must add that august was the worst month for the method in the year and a half i have accumulated results. i believe it ended about -1,500, most of that from the aud/usd trades, a pair that was most successful prior to august.

we have the ea’s now which can be very helpful in giving us some approximations of how the method might be doing. using rpotor’s v3.22, i ran from sept 1 to date with these results:
e/j +996
e/u -55
g/j +128
a/u +456
g/u -374

with some exceptions, these are representative of how we might have done. i suggest backtesting a month at a time. after the strategy tester finishes, choose “results.” right click in the middle of the results presentation and choose “copy all.” paste it to a spreadsheet and meticulously study each trade. this is tedious work, but will ground you in how the system works. if i were to trade only one pair, it would not be e/u or g/u, and not just because they haven’t done well this month. there are other pairs more likely to achieve the average +37 pip move we need to make a successful trade. at this time, i am personally trading a/u and e/j, having forgiven a/u for the rude treatment in august. best wishes for your trading.

Hi Pipwoof, these backtest numbers are in pips? How do you set the Expert to run these numbers? I can only see the result in $ or €.

Thanks for your help.

P.S. - This is a great Exit strategy!

[pipwoof]

Hi Pipwoof, these backtest numbers are in pips? How do you set the Expert to run these numbers? I can only see the result in $ or €.

Thanks for your help.

P.S. - This is a great Exit strategy!

these are dollars. not sure we can set the ea to show pips. i am just taking the difference between the $10,000 starting amount and the last amount shown in the results column. btw, when i run the same dates using the dinesh ea, i get these
results:
e/j +953
e/u -165
g/j -121
a/u +514
g/u -407

the ea’s trade differently and the only way to really sort out the trades is to compare each side by side along with what we would have done manually. all things considered, i think the ea’s are just showing us the method has potential.

[Nidolap]

Agree!

Do you have manual backtest logs? I believe this system as proved that it works overtime, August was just a dull month where we should be out of trading. 2011 August was different because there were lots of stuff going on in the markets (news).

[eliescuadrian]

I test it on demo, but not monday as it gives more failures; I’ve tested it monday with friday bars as I don’t get sunday in my platform

[pipwoof]

Agree!

Do you have manual backtest logs? I believe this system as proved that it works overtime, August was just a dull month where we should be out of trading. 2011 August was different because there were lots of stuff going on in the markets (news).

i haven’t kept up with manual logging, but am trading a/u and e/j. this month to date, a/u is showing about +225 and e/j +300.

[christinaa]

Thanks for the response Pipwolf

For the year and a half of accumulated testing this system, what was the best pair?

Thanks a lot

[pipwoof]

Thanks for the response Pipwolf

For the year and a half of accumulated testing this system, what was the best pair?

Thanks a lot

eur/jpy, then gbp/jpy, then aud/usd. “past performance is no assurance of future results.”

[christinaa]

did eur/jpy or gbp/jpy ever have a negative month?

and how much % risk do you use on all 3 entries?

Thanks

[pipwoof]

did eur/jpy or gbp/jpy ever have a negative month?

and how much % risk do you use on all 3 entries?

Thanks

see post 1 for results for the initial portfolio and post 115 for the eur/jpy. i don’t use any “socially acceptable” risk parameters.

edit: pardon me. i should say that i don’t believe the way i approach risk would be acceptable to most of the trading community.

[Barret]

Hello,
This is the best way and best examples to tell everyone about Triple threat exit strategy. This is a good strategy but mostly every trader tried this strategy.

[christinaa]

for post 115 what does the red numbers mean in the brackets?

[pipwoof]

for post 115 what does the red numbers mean in the brackets?

from post 1, “Just so we know what we’re looking at, left to right, these sheets tell us the month, the pair, and the losses and wins for each of the three exit strategies, with a total at the end.” red, parentheses, and minus signs universally denote negative numbers or, in our case, losses. so, for 1-11, the tp exit took -170 in losses and +375 in wins for a net +205, not including transaction costs.

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

[christinaa]

I’ve read the 1st post but I just want to get something clear
Of the 3 positions that you trade, the 1st trade Position with the SL set in stone, what is this position #1 TP?
In Robopips test he didn’t use a TP for position #1

Also what if you’re still got trades going and then it goes into another day and there’s a new signal? Do you keep the previous trades going? Do you enter the new signals?

[pipwoof]

I’ve read the 1st post but I just want to get something clear
Of the 3 positions that you trade, the 1st trade Position with the SL set in stone, what is this position #1 TP?
In Robopips test he didn’t use a TP for position #1

Also what if you’re still got trades going and then it goes into another day and there’s a new signal? Do you keep the previous trades going? Do you enter the new signals?

christinaa, this is from post 1: ““Take Profit” will close a position at a predetermined quarter level that results in +25 or more…” examples are given, but it simply means that you set tp at the next quarter that would give you at least +25 pips. if you enter a long at 102.08, the next quarter is 102.25, but that would not give you at least +25, so the tp is set at 102.50.

i am not aware that robopip did not follow the tp strategy. from what i gather, he started with my results and tweaked the stop losses. how did you determine that he did not use the tp for position 1?

this is also from post 1, “Observe that we may be waiting a while for thesepositions to fall back to close. They may be carried overnight, sometimes fordays, and through the weekend. Though I prefer to be flat over the weekend,there are times when it seems appropriate to leave trades open. Often, while weare waiting for trades to close, a new day comes and we may have new entrysignals. System testing assumes those signals were taken and more positionswere added. But, that can be a judgment call on your part. If existing positionsare safely in profit, i add the new positions. If not, I prefer to mitigaterisk and just stay with what is already open.”

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

[pipwoof]

this may be helpful for anyone trying to learn the strategy. i have run rpotor’s ea on eur/jpy for sept 1 to date and cut out part of the results section. i like to “copy all” of the results and transfer to a spreadsheet where i can go line by line and see what the ea did. then, i can look back at the chart and see what i would have done in live trading. but, by using just this little section, i think it can help you understand the logic of the method. follow along by order # and it should become clearer.

we can see that the ea starts on 9-3 by entering entry stops. orders 1, 2, and 3 are buy stops and 4, 5, and 6 are sell stops. we also see they are consistent with the system’s requirements. this being a monday, the entries are placed +/- 11 pips from the high/low. then we see that both sides of the orders were taken. that is, we note three sells and three buys. when we look back at the chart, we observe that prices started out moving short to trigger entries, then reversed to long. the ea will always take both trades if triggered. in this case, u.s. brokers not permitting hedge trades, we would not actually enter the longs. the shorts would just continue to stop loss.

next, we see new stop orders entered for the next day, 9-4. these are orders 7, 8, and 9 for long and 10, 11, and 12 for short. we don’t see anything yet about what has happened to our orders 1 through 6, but the next thing we do see is that more buy orders are triggered on 9-4. these are 7, 8, and 9. so, the ea is into 9-4 with multiple open orders.

the next thing we see is stop losses hit for orders 4, 5, and 6. these are the shorts from 9-3. next, we see tp hit on orders 1 and 7. when that happens, the remaining orders get modified to establish new sl’s. the next lines show long positions 2, 3, 8, and 9 falling back to their modified sl’s. we could continue through this for trade after trade and we will be able to see the differences between how the ea operates and how we would have taken and managed trades in real time. this is great education if you are considering the method.

[pipwoof]

imo, it is also important that we keep a close watch on how our decisions are working out. if we have chosen to trade e/j, let’s make the effort to keep an eye on it and know how it is doing. this is an equity chart built from the rpotor results for sept 1 to date. this can teach us so much about the realities of trading. probably the most important thing for me is that we would have had to suffer through a more than -700 drawdown for the first half of the month before we began to see the equity rise to over +1,000. this is the ea, not what i have achieved in real trading.

equity.pdf (89 KB)

[christinaa]

Thanks for answering my questions Pipwolf, with the equity chart above does -1000 mean all of the capital. So if the drawdown reached -1000 would that mean our account would be depleted?

[christinaa]

and in the 18 months, was eur/jpy just ahead of gbp/jpy or was eur/jpy dramatically better?

[Guillaume_Garreau]

hi all,
i did a backtesting of the daybreak_v3.22 of rpotor and here’s the results (in pips - 3pips spread):
for september (monday 3rd to tuesday 25th) & for this year (monday january first to tuesday september 25th)
u/j +1124 +4169
e/j +995 +788
e/g +345 -769
a/u +340 -631
nzd/u +283 -618
u/ch +186 -1792
e/u +31 -1752
u/cad -99 -853
g/u -137 -161
tt = +3068 -1619

does anyone did the backtests and can confirm the results?
i could not backtest on the g/j on my demo account, anyone with the data?
anyone tried with gold/silver?

it’s obvious that some months are way better than other and i’m convince that the judgement calls can seriously reduce the lose and/or increase the wins… as well as selected the pairs you like the best
from the previous posts it seems that the more successful pairs are the u/j, e/j, a/u, u/cad and e/b

some judgement calls that can be made and could (not sure yet) be automatized are:

1-when the trade goes 20/25 pips into your favor move SL to break-even, the TP is anywhere between 25 to 49pips so it can be a long way to go… using a trailing stop could also be a solution…
2- close the trade if the move is not in your favor after some time (1hr,2hr, 20mins… your call), this idea is from Mr Gone (47247-step-step-everyone-cut-your-loses-short.html)
3- sometimes the order is trigger from a few pips and then the pair go the other way and reach your SL, maybe we can add another signal (like the RSI value) to get valid (like the usd/jpy sell this morning), not sure if it is a good idea or not, i haven’t checked extensively, it’s just a hunch
4- some days when you start the pair has already passed the low/high of the previous day and then the order is not place, we should be able to do something for those cases…

have a nice day!