True PA trading using MA's for S/R

Thanks Ken
I like looking at your charts. Have you looked at the BB and moving averages thread here on BP I see that some very similar trades would be had following that method and yours. Its nice to see conformation.
My method is sort of a hybrid of both focusing on PA for entry with the BB to help me decide on a reasonable exit. I also scalp most of my trades. PA(what goes up must come down well not all the time and not all the way back down but enough to work with;)) and BB are the only thing I have found worth anything on a 5min chart.

Thanks again for the great contribution and Merry Cristmas

Here is a picture of 2 - 5 oclock trades I took this evening
One off the 5ma and one off the 10ma. Higher green arrows were my entries and the next lower green arrow was my exit.
Hope this helps
Thanks
Jack

Saw some more stuff on that chart… Great Trading Jack…:smiley:


KENNETH lEE
Trade Inspiration Not Despiration . Member Since Nov 2008
1,841 Posts


I would like to wish everyone a Happy Holiday Season. Everyone take this time to reflect and take stock in your lifes. remember wealth isn’t only about how much money we have it is more about how we live our lifes and treat each other. I am attaching a story I have posted before it was originally posted on Baby Pips a year or two ago. By someone else.

Everyone Have a Great Time and Be Safe Ken

Two strangers go jogging every evening and they always stop at a park bench and chat before the jog back home. They idely chat about sports, and food, local news and have been doing so for a few months.

One day the first man say, “It’s is a good day. I have my wife, my kids, I love my job, and my health is good due to all this running. I believe I am truly happy.”

“You’re right,” says the second man, “They sky is blue, the weather is warm, and the jog was a good one. It truly is a good day.”

The next day on the park bench, the first man seemed angry.
“What’s the matter?” asked his jogging buddy.

“I made a bad business deal, and lost my entire life saving’s. Now I am stuck where I am and I have no where to go.” the man grumbledd

The second man looked at him, stood up and said “Follow me.” Then he turned and trotted away. The first mat looked at him for a moment, then followed his jogging buddy.

Roughly 15 minutes later they arrived under a small bridge and stopped.

The first main said “Here we are.” Trying to catch his breath

“Where is here?” The second replied.

The first man thought for a moment then said, “Yesterday you told me how happy you were to have your health, your family, a good job and your wife. Today you are bitterly angry because you lost some money. Two months ago I had the same things that make you happy, then I lost some money in a bad business deal. I got angry and stayed angry. My wife and I fought all the time and she finally divorced me, took my house and the kids. During the divorce I started drinking and it effected my work so I lost my job. Then I started drinking more and poisoned myself with alcohol, and was sent to the hospital.” He stopped and looked into the second eyes for a long moment, then began again.
“Where we are, my friend, is where I have been living for the last couple of months. After I was released from the hospital I had no home, no job and no money, and I lost my health to top it all off. I decided then that I would start over, and get each one back with time, starting with my health. So I started jogging and I met you. Now I have my health and and a friend. All I have to do now is get a land this job I have been interviewing for and get my life back in order.”

The second man stood stock still while listening to his new friend, apparently in shock. “Is there anything I can do to help?” He asked with worry in his eyes.

“You already have, now I am trying to help you. Do not end up like me. Your loss has nothing to do with the things you told me you loved yesterday, so do not let the emotion ruin your life. Start over, don’t look at what was, but look to what will be.”

The second man nodded, “Thank you my friend, I will do that. I think I will head home now. Is there anything I can do for you?”

“Nope, You go home, to the things you love.”

“Thank you.” The first man embraced his friend, then set off with speed to his home.

The second man sat down and looked around. It had seemed forever since he had first come here. “All because I thought money was everything.” he thought.

Then he got up and started jogging again. After a few minutes he glanced back. He glanced back to what used to be his home, the rock bottom of his life. He smiled, and started walking slowly, enjoying the air and the rest of the evening, back to his home. Back to his wife and kids, and away from the home he had under the bridge two years before.


Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee

Thanks Ken, I hope you have a great holiday weekend.
I saw the double top but did not know about the distance price could travel after breaking the neckline. I learned something new today!!! That’s about where price was when I signed on last night. I tried another 5:00 trade when price went back up to the 4hr 150ma my thinking was that that point would now be resistance, but it did not work out. (-10 pips) I also considered a long off the hammer hitting the 200ma on the 15m but was uncertain since the MA’s were all going down and the 4hr 150ma just a few pips away after spread. What signal should I have been looking for at that point in time? Or should I have waited longer to see what developed?
Thanks
Jack

Hey Ken and everyone,
I’m practicing my chart anaylisis and here is one of the spot’s I’m still having trouble with in real time. Here is my 15m and 1h charts. I’m wanting to sell here but then I start thinking am I supposed to trade away from the ma’s here, or is it wait for the break one way or another and then get in on a 1 or 5 oclock trade? Thanks for any comments on my chart anaylisis
Jack

Well, I pulled the trigger for a sell at 131.67 and TP @ 131.47 The point of ppa line from last night and that was what I was expecting from the point of where the neckline was broken from the double top. 17pips after spread. In reviewing what I could have done better on my exit…there really was no signal to get out there. I should have stayed in and picked up another 20.

KENNETH lEE
Trade Inspiration Not Despiration . Member Since Nov 2008
1,842 Posts


It is that time of year again. When make new and renew old goals for ourselves. Why we do this during this time of year only is strange . Winter is probablly one of the hardest times for people to get more excrises because of weather and finances are in a shambles do to the holidays and the spreading of cheer. So that all amkes ou8r new yeas=rs resolutions harder if not impossible.

So lets see if we can make a effort to improve our chances of reaching a goal or two this year and not have them just be dreams.
My last position in the private sector was managing a location of a large national company. Every year we were requiered to put together a forecast. Which was a itemized set of goals for the following year. This forecast was derived from a line item report called a General Ledger. This report was monthlly as well as yearlly. It was a snapshot of all exspenses and profits for every month broken down into every single item wiether it be a Bill or a customers invoice (In our case a increase in equity or a withdrawl).

I know during that 1/3 of one trimester in highschool when they taught us how to spend money by writing a check. There was a minor notation about making a budget which of course not having any money we didn’t listen too. But let us assume we want to be fulltime traders making our income from this thing called Forex. The sooner we start treating the accounting postion of trading as the business it is the better off we will be. Some are lucky they all ready have a company big or small and realize the importance of precise financial paper work. Anything in the finacial world wiether you want a loan or taxes or to proof your poor even. Requires you to prove on paper why your just telling people.

In the U.S. we actually fill out or taxes based on our own assumptions yes we have paperwork to back up our claim. But the IRS ( Internal Revenue Service) Doesn’t start to input that data or verify anything for 3 years after we file our tax returns. Which if we wanted too could let us right ourselves a loan if we wanted . But the penalities and interest are not favorable.

So back to the task at hand. So we have the goal to be successfull and we are to a point we take out some money from time to time. Then it all goes to crap for one reason or other. We could actually end up oweing taxes on money we made and spent after we lose all our equity and quit trading. That would be the worst case scenario. So if your taking withdrawls remmeber you will owe taxes on that money at some point. The only reason not if you take out the same amount you put in and lost all you put in . Then it would be a draw no loss no gain. But if you make 10,000 and your equity is equal too or greater you owe taxes on 10,000 and any other equity over your deposits. I know this is basic but to get hit with a large tax bill when you least can afford it desreves a reminder.

The accountants would tell you to place your estimated taxes into a seperate account and draw some interest on it before you have to pay. If you are a very discplined person that is great advice if your not. Maybe every time you take a draw from your account send 1/3 of that draw to the IRS. as a prepayment. One item of importance is to do a prelimanry tax aduit before it is due. We have almot 4 months to do this yet must wait to the last moment. Just log on to anyone of many free internet services and fillout the forms and this will give you a good idea where you stand and what you possiblly owe. You then have 4 months to make this money or lay some aside.

Enough on that just be aware and have some plan to deal with it. The main focus here is that we all should make some sort of forecast for the up coming year. The more detailed the better as our trading progresses the more important these records will become. So if you start now it will make simpler… So start seperating your bills . A good starting point would maybe one of the accounting software like quickbooks or something. If your real lazy if you pay all your bills on one credit card then pay it in FULL every month they can seperated it for you. But you should have at the least the following details.

  1. Housing
    a Mortgage
    b Taxes
    c Insurance
    d Rent ( Yes you can have a mortgage and rent)Think Redneck Hilton
    Double Wide.
    e Condo or maintence fees

2 Utilities
a electric
b water
c sewer
d trash
e Phone

3 Trading exspenses.
a Internet ( may be portion of phone)

b Secondary internet. ( 3 G card Cable internet)

c Phone Either seperate line or portion of house line.

d Computer expsenses.( Printer ink , printer paper , UPS)

e office supplies ( paper. enevelopes, pens postits. everything)

f office equiptment ( phones, fax machine ,copier,answer machine)

g office rent (Portion of housing exspenses. If home office)

h travel exspenses. To seminaries are to check on ivestments
a plane tickets
b hotel
c meals
d entertainment of other traders or possible clients or mentors
any dealings with anyone that has to do with your business.
accountants lawyers landlords sedcrateries, maintence people
can be wrote off as a bussiness exspense. But you have to have
backup paperwork. Start making it a habbit to keep restraunt and
gas reciepts and write small notes on the back.

i gifts may fall under entertainmant but are tax detuctable.

j company car
a payment
b insurance
c Fuel ( keep reciepts or Credit card statement of gas card)
d Detailing / maintenance
e Toll charges

k health insurance
a Eye care
b dental
c health

l Retirement funds
a 401 k
b ira’s

m Contract payments onetime services of relatives possiblly.

I think you get the picture a lot of these details may not apply right a way but once you start making real money in forex you will need to talk to someone about starting a company to allow you to write of against your tax bill a good portion. I worked for a guy once to everyone in the office 5 people to lunch everyday and wrote it off. The important thing is a paper trail especially if you use cash. IF you use a credit card try and use the same one for the same things are better yet make one the company card. anything that might be a bussinees exspense should be charged on that card. Then if you lose your reciept you have a backup.

You will be able to write off so many of your daily living exspenses. Then the best way to get cash is as a paycheck to yourself. But if you start tracking all your cost in this way you may see where money is just leaking out of your life and then you can stop that flow. Plus you can make a real plan based on real facts. I want to have a extra 200 to spend a month on entertainmnet. Maybe just moving things around you can. Plus once you start keeping track of items this way. You will be able at a glance see how your doing.

A Review monthlly and adjustments quarterlly will help to keep you focused. And you can see where your slipping. One item I didn’t metion was captial exspenditures. This would include any major chages in your budget like a new offece or new car some of those types of purchases can be deducted over years.

The we may want to diversify which would reguire divisions of your main company to protect your personal assets. This why you will normally have one company that has a few LLC under it. The LLC (Limited Liablity Companies ) carry the risk and can be closed if needed protecting the major company. You see it all the time in major corporations debt gets to high in one part it goes under opening tomorrow under a different name. Regardless what people think that is still not a good thing. better to run profitable companies . But this can also protect you from liabilty caused by lawsuits., and if peole start to know you have money beware. They might start stepping in front of your car. Why we drive a company car . LOL

So start seperating your exspense a number code on a excel spread sheet is fine. Then file in seperate folders. That way when you do talk to a accountant or lawyer about starting that new trading and investment firm . You will be ahead of the game.

Sorry I know I got a bit of track. But hope this will get you to thinking about the future. Plan now that way it is a smooth transition. And don’t wait till the last minute. If you have years of losses as a bussiness they are also treated differentlly. But would be better to take against profits.

Happy New Year Ken

Jack B PIP

Hey Ken and everyone,
I’m practicing my chart anaylisis and here is one of the spot’s I’m still having trouble with in real time. Here is my 15m and 1h charts. I’m wanting to sell here but then I start thinking am I supposed to trade away from the ma’s here, or is it wait for the break one way or another and then get in on a 1 or 5 oclock trade? Thanks for any comments on my chart anaylisis
Jack

This is where the drawing of the S/R lines comes into it’s own. Those give you the areas to at the very least beware. It is where we expect price to either stall or turn around or both. as it did. it stalled pulled back off the first test then tried again failed the second time and turned. This are also the places to get in the longer term trades. targeting another area off the higher time frame charts but possiblly takeing some profit along the way off the smaller time frame charts. This is the reason why we say when trading towards the major MA’s we tka profit at the different ma’s because price could turn back. The major ma’s being the main focus.

Also if you watch you will see the price start to close the other side of the ma’s. You could have taken a long on the first pullback but when it failed to go higher a alarm in your head should start to go off. it isn’t going higher becarefull.

The 35/50 area is normally in line with a major fib level or retracement area. That is why it has it’s own trading entry. The same goes for the 62 ema 1 hr touch trade it is a major retracement on the 1 hr chart. But you must know the difference between a retracement and a reversal. That is why I mention a Check mark. If it is a V shaped swing maybe a reversal not a retracement.

Your making some great trades and starting to see the entries as you take more and more it gets easier. But don’t forget the other enties. both those double tops had some good signals. Maybe start by just placing a mark where you think a different type trade is then that will help you gainn the trust required.

                      Great Trading Ken

First trade of the night. 62ma trade off the one hour right at the open. I got in short right when price started to pull back. I also felt pretty good about the 30pip gap from the close on Friday. I moved by stop to + pips pretty quick. I Took profit on 1 amount at +40 pips. Price stalled at PPA around 1.5945 and I cashed out my other 2 amounts at +35. Went to dinner now looking for the next set up.
Jack

Nice going Jack . I took that same trade could not ignore that 62 ema on the open and the gap up… Great trade … Next seat on the bus please… :smiley:

Thanks for the post. Yes actually almost any other strategy and this one should have common factors if your taking any good trades. because this one has a entry at almost every possible entry point. if it can just help with confirmation of any of the types of trades your currentlly using it is well worth the additional information.

I have found this is how I want to trade but am trying to grow as a trader to use all these different entries to trade. We have very few that have been able to incorporate the total package , longer term and the shorter scalping trades into a single package. But those that have are probablly the best traders I have ever heard of anywhere. If you look over the complete system you will see it has entries for every type price movement. the best traders use mulitple accounts to take advantage of all the trades holding longterm while taking countertrend in a second account.

It is easy to see how this is done after the fact. But harder to gain that trust to pull it off ourselves. So hope you can use some of the information here and if you have additional comments or want nay clarifaction on any points just ask.

                          Happy Holidays Ken

Next 2 trades from last night.
I was looking for a 5:00 trade and entered short at the 50ema 1.5955.
I ended up closing out at -5pips. 3 candles over it looked like it was going to keep going up - which it did.
Next trade - An evening star at an S/R line I had drawn previously.
Went short at 1.5965. It tried the 35sma a couple of times so I got out at
+8 pips.
Then I went to bed. And now off to my real job. :frowning:
Jack

Hi Ken,

Which broker are you using ? My broker opens trading only 1 hr after urs I think. And their spreads also killing me…Any gud broker to recommend? Thanks.

Here is that post about finances retyped by Mary4x… Thanks a lot … ken

Also downloaded the DOC file. opens better…

It is that time of year again, when we make new and renew old goals for ourselves. Why we only do this during this time of year is strange. Winter is probably one of the hardest times for people to get more exercise because of weather and finances are in a shambles due to the holidays and the spreading of cheer. So that all makes our new year’s resolutions harder if not impossible.

So let’s see if we can make an effort to improve our chances of reaching a goal or two this year and not have them just be dreams.

My last position in the private sector was managing a location of a large national company. Every year we were required to put together a forecast, which was an itemized set of goals for the following year. This forecast was derived from a line item report called a General Ledger. This report was monthly as well as yearly. It was a snapshot of all expenses and profits for every month broken down into every single item whether it be a bill or a customer’s invoice (in our case an increase in equity or a withdrawal).

I remember during that 1/3 of one trimester in high school when they taught us how to spend money by writing a check. There was a minor notation about making a budget, which of course not having any money we didn’t listen to. But let us assume we want to be fulltime traders making our income from this thing called Forex. The sooner we start treating the accounting portion of trading as the business it is the better off we will be. Some are lucky–they already have a company big or small and realize the importance of precise financial paperwork. Anything in the financial world whether you want a loan or taxes, or to prove you’re poor even, requires you to prove on paper what you’re telling people.

In the U.S. we actually fill out our taxes based on our own assumptions. Yes, we have paperwork to back up our claim. But the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) doesn’t start to input that data or verify anything for 3 years after we file our tax returns. Which if we wanted to could let us write ourselves a loan. But the penalties and interest are not favorable.

So back to the task at hand. So we have the goal to be successful and we are to a point we take out some money from time to time. Then it all goes to crap for one reason or other. We could actually end up owing taxes on money we made and spent after we lose all our equity and quit trading. That would be the worst-case scenario. So if you’re taking withdrawals, remember you will owe taxes on that money at some point. The only reason not is if you took out the same amount you put in and lost all you put in. Then it would be a draw, no loss no gain. But if you make $10,000 and your equity is equal to or greater you owe taxes on $10,000 and any other equity over your deposits. I know this is basic but to get hit with a large tax bill when you least can afford it deserves a reminder.

The accountants would tell you to place your estimated taxes into a separate account and draw some interest on it before you have to pay. If you are a very disciplined person that is great advice. If you’re not, maybe every time you take a draw from your account send 1/3 of that draw to the IRS as a prepayment. One item of importance is to do a preliminary tax audit before it is due. We have almost 4 months to do this yet most wait to the last moment. Just log on to any one of many free Internet services and fill out the forms and this will give you a good idea where you stand and what you possibly owe. You then have 4 months to make this money or lay some aside.

Enough on that. Just be aware and have some plan to deal with it. The main focus here is that we all should make some sort of forecast for the upcoming year. The more detailed the better. As our trading progresses the more important these records will become. So if you start now it will make it simpler. Start separating your bills. A good starting point would maybe be one of the accounting softwares like QuickBooks or something. If you’re real lazy and if you pay all your bills on one credit card then pay it in FULL every month and they can separate it for you. But you should have at the least the following details.

  1. Housing
    a. Mortgage
    b. Taxes
    c. Insurance
    d. Rent (Yes, you can have a mortgage and rent (Think Redneck
    Hilton.) Double Wide.
    e. Condo or maintenance fees
  2. Utilities
    a. electricity
    b. water
    c. sewer
    d. trash
    e. phone
  3. Trading Expenses
    a. Internet (may be portion of phone)
    b. Secondary internet (3 G card Cable internet)
    c. Phone, either separate line or portion of house line
    d. Computer expenses (printer ink, printer paper, UPS)
    e. Office supplies (paper. envelopes, pens. post-its, everything)
    f. Office equipment (phones, fax machine, copier, answering machine)
    g. Office rent (portion of housing expenses if home office)
    h. Travel expenses to seminars or to check on investments
  1. plane tickets
  2. hotels
  3. meals
  4. entertainment of other traders or possible clients or mentors; any dealings with anyone that has to do with your business–
    accountants, lawyers, landlords, secretaries, maintenance people
    can be written off as a business expense. But you have to have
    backup paperwork. Start making it a habit to keep restaurant and
    gas receipts and write small notes on the back.
    i. Gifts may fall under entertainment but are tax deductible.
    j. Company car
  5. payment
  6. insurance
  7. fuel (keep receipts or credit card statement of gas card)
  8. detailing /maintenance
  9. toll charges
    k. Health insurance
  10. eye care
  11. dental
  12. health

l. Retirement funds

  1. 401 k
  2. IRA’s

m. Contract payments–onetime services of relatives possibly.
I think you get the picture. A lot of these details may not apply right away but once you start making real money in forex you will need to talk to someone about starting a company to allow you to write off against your tax bill a good portion. I worked for a guy once who took everyone in the office, 5 people, to lunch every day and wrote it off. The important thing is a paper trail especially if you use cash. If you use a credit card try and use the same one for the same things. Or better yet make one the company card. Anything that might be a business expense should be charged on that card. Then if you lose your receipt you have a backup.

You will be able to write off so many of your daily living expenses. Then the best way to get cash is as a paycheck to yourself. But if you start tracking all your costs in this way you may see where money is just leaking out of your life and then you can stop that flow. Plus you can make a real plan based on real facts. I want to have an extra $200 to spend a month on entertainment. Maybe just by moving things around you can. Plus once you start keeping track of items this way, you will be able to see at a glance how you’re doing.

A review monthly and adjustments quarterly will help to keep you focused. And you can see where you’re slipping. One item I didn’t mention was capital expenditures. This would include any major changes in your budget like a new office or new car. Some of those types of purchases can be deducted over years.

Then we may want to diversify which would require divisions of your main company to protect your personal assets. This way you will normally have one company that has a few LLC’s under it. The LLC (Limited Liability Companies) carry the risk and can be closed if needed protecting the major company. You see it all the time in major corporations. Debt gets too high in one part it goes under, opening tomorrow under a different name. Regardless what people think that is still not a good thing. Better to run profitable companies. But this can also protect you from liability caused by lawsuits, and if people start to know you have money, beware. They might start stepping in front of your car. Why we drive a company car. LOL

So start separating your expenses. A number code on an excel spread sheet is fine. Then file in separate folders. That way when you do talk to an accountant or lawyer about starting that new trading and investment firm, you will be ahead of the game.

Sorry, I know I got a bit off track. But I hope this will get you to thinking about the future. Plan now. That way it is a smooth transition. And don’t wait till the last minute. If you have years of losses as a business they are also treated differently. But it would be better to take against profits.

Happy New Year Ken


Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee

I have two Brokers, My primary or largest account is with GFT. I like their charting package. That is what I use to make all the postings. I also have a account with Oanda. Their spreads are a little bit better but change during news and low volume times Gft may change 1 pip every now and then. Oanda starts at 1 pm sunday eastern but spread is so high it is hard to trade .

Plus GFT has something called direct deal tickets which allow your orders to flow straight throw to the banks with no slippage. But can cause some requotes during fast moves. But after having been slipped 20 or 30 pips in the past I at least like to have the option to accept it or try agian which is what i usually do.

Oanda is good starting broker they allow subaccounts so you can break up your equity. Not have it all in one bucket so to speak. Also their History trade markers are great for reviewing your trades. MT4 platforms have that also I believe. But I have never used MT4 you would have to if your interested in EA’s most are written for MT4.

Hope this helps Ken

PS another thing about Oanda is their demo never expires. most are only good for 30 days or so.

Ken and everyone,
I attribute this to beginners luck. I’ve taken 7 scalp/gump trades.
That also look like 35/50 trades. I took them both ways. See the arrows and direction of trade. Each arrow was an entry and exit on the open of the candle.
6 winners - +3,+6, +5, +5, +4, +3 (alot of work and worry)
1 loser -7. The last one went bad. It broke my PPA line, and MA’s started to fan out, so I jumped out.
Net +16. (this is after spread)
I dont think all of these were valid 35/50 trades as they are move in a V vs. a check. I am done for the night since everything is so slow.
Thanks
Jack

Good going Jack
yes those are true gump trades think of the 50 ema as the table tennis net . It is nice to get it setup with two lines to come off but the tight range is pretty hard to trade… Yes you are right this aren’t 35/50 trades. it is very slow . I might try again during the London /US joint time .

I think I see that you have that resistance line up at the top the double test and failure could help us to prefer the shorts and maybe pass on the longs those not getting stopped on that one… Just a thought…

Hi Ken ,

Today London session was quite confusing for me after priced reached 62 EmA . I was quite unsure which direction to favour because price was in boucing in between 62 EMA and 35/50 cross break out . How do u treat this kind of situation . Attached is the chart.


It being one of the worst weeks of the year to trade. look closelly at your charts… This doesn’t mean there aren’t trades as you can see 140 pip drop on gbp. Just maintain tight stops.