First of all Hello to everyone here. Long time lurker first time poster.
Definitely a great informative post here. I must say Chris has done an excellent job keeping it simple and concise. I haven’t been able to read all the pages here but bits and pieces here and there.
I would like to know if I am on the right path here from what I’ve learnt so far on here.
What I see from this 4 hr USD/JPY chart is that 38.2 Fib level has been a support area for a bit and after being breached today, the price may pull back to that level and continue the downward trend. Am I on the right track to put a sell order around this key area with properly managed stop losses?
First off welcome aboard and good to have you here.
I’m more bearish than bullish, so would rather sell pullbacks than buy atm. The level you have looking for shorts is pretty solid. the 61.8 also works.
Also notice how the breakdown occurs intra-day at the 38.2 level you spotted, and the heaviest selling is on that candle and breakdown, so I think this level is pretty solid.
Keep in mind NFP is tomorrow, which can always be a game changer.
But overall, nicely done for 1st time poster so excellent work.
I do want to recap the Gold sell recommendation from the 1415/1420 levels.
looking at the chart below, we can see on the 4hr a pin bar formed at the key resistance level. notice how for the next 4 out of 5 bars, there were upside wicks and rejections?
Glad I could help. And welcome aboard. I think you will find this a unique thread dedicated to understanding price action in a different way, so do not hesitate to ask questions.
From my previous post, I was looking at the USD/JPY 4 hour chart, and I placed an order around the 38.2 Fib level which appeared to be a key resistance level as well as Chris’s confirmation of the same.
Today, my order got filled and with a new low, after my post, the resistance lies just below the 50.0 fib level.
We now also see a nice pin bar rejection, so hopefully it plays out well.
I’ve been able to do this, thanks to the wealth of information and input from all the members of BP as well as an invaluable thread like this by Chris.
Just as an FYI, I generally do not like to place trades on Sunday market open, and I minimally wait till the first london session before putting on trades.
Why?
Because the liquidity is not there, especially without the london session traders getting in for the week.
Once they get in, then I examine the trade idea and see if its still valid or not.
So hope this helps, but cannot remember the last trade I initiated on the market open before London - tis been a while.
