If the US were to attack Iran which i believe is just a matter of time but that’s another issue.
What are the thoughts on what might happen to the $$?
I tend to trade the AUD/USD currency.
Possible positioning prediction.
Any thoughts.
I think it’s safe to say that this current war has not been good for the economy or the dollar as it high some all time lows during this time.
However, the war is already on. US has spec ops in Iran as well as CIA operatives hard at work. Their leading nuke scientist was recently killed. How convenient for the US. But I’ll step away from the espionage conspiracy theories and more directly answer your question.
I do not think it will be much of an effect on the dollar as the country is already at war. The war on Iran will most likely be ran like the operations in Kosovo. Very light on ground troops, and plenty of air strikes.
The US had to get into Iraq to topple a government, for whatever unknown reason the US had at the time. I do not think Iran’s government needs to be toppled. I suspect between the Mossad and the CIA, enough work can be done to keep the government at bay.
The US’s concern is to prevent their development of nuclear arms. And that can be done from the sky. Perhaps it would be a different story if such weapons already existed. But if they did, the war would have already begun.
I think the price of oil would skyrocket. Iran can quite easily shut down the flow of oil from the middle east - They dont even have to hit any tankers, just fire a missile in the general direction of a couple and insurance companies will do the rest. The inevitable counterattack would likely cause panic in the USA which hasnt been seen before. Americans like to watch wars on their television sets rather than through their front window, which is exactly what would happen if they start a war with Iran. Luckily the powers that be are much smarter than the average american hillbilly, even the most slaphappy generals understand that the USA would almost certainly lose in a ground war so if any attack is made against Iran it will come from Israel.
[B]Iran unlikely to risk blocking Strait of Hormuz [/B]
Breaking News, Business News, Financial and Investing News & More | Reuters.co.uk
Iran is unlikely to risk blocking or mining the Strait of Hormuz if tension with the West rises, because it stands to lose vital oil revenues from closing the strategic waterway and lacks the military capability.
Iran has threatened to close the strait a vital route for world oil supplies, if it is attacked over its nuclear ambitions.
Some Iran watchers say Tehran could opt to block the strait if more severe sanctions are imposed. Western powers suspect Iran’s nuclear activities are aimed at developing atomic weapons, not generating electricity as Tehran insists.
Analysts believe the threat itself is enough to raise oil prices to well above $100 a barrel, potentially damaging a still fragile global economic recovery.
“Oil prices rose by around $12 a barrel when Israel went into Lebanon in 2006 and neither of those countries are even involved in oil production,” said Paul Harris, head of natural resources risk management at Bank of Ireland.
“You’d be looking at least double that kind of jump from an event on that scale in the region.”
Many analysts say Tehran cannot afford to risk a prolonged disruption of the narrow waterway, which borders Iran’s coastline at the mouth of the Gulf, and through which 40 percent of all seaborne oil trade, about 17 million barrels, passes daily.
Iran itself exports around 2.4 million barrels daily – most of it via the Strait of Hormuz.
“They would cut their own throats because two-thirds of the Iranian government’s budget comes from exports from the same strait,” said J. Peter Pham, an adviser on strategic matters to U.S. and foreign governments.
“Iran gains more from the threat of closing the strait than actually closing it.”
“FRAUGHT WITH PROBLEMS”
The strait, just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, lies between Oman and Iran. Neighbouring oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, are dependent on its shipping lanes.
“Closing the strait would reduce Iran’s leverage in the region as it would put Persian Gulf countries squarely in the camp of America,” Iran analyst Meir Javedanfar said, adding that it could tempt them into financing Iranian opposition movements.
Many analysts believe that, if Iran retaliated, it would choose to mine the strait’s sea lanes as it did during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
Military analysts believe Iran has three mine-laying ships and three mine-laying helicopters, plus three Russian-built Kilo class submarines.
“Military operations on the offence are fraught with problems,” said Eugene Gholz, professor of national security policy at the University of Texas.
“The Iranians would have to do it over and over again every day to maintain the disruption.”
Global intelligence company Stratfor said the strait’s cramped, shallow waters made submarine activity difficult.
“In any event, the Iranian navy does not have enough Kilos to have any confidence in its ability to sustain submarine operations for any meaningful period after hostilities began,” it said in a study.
REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS
Some analysts said double-hulled oil tankers were able to withstand damage from mines more than their single-hulled predecessors, which were targeted in the 1980s when Iran and Iraq fired on each other’s vessels during the “tanker war.”
John Dalby, chief executive of the maritime security company MRM which provides risk assessments and supplies former military personnel to ships in the region, said mines did not represent a real risk to tankers.
“Bearing in mind mines detonate under water, there is little risk of a spark-induced explosion,” he said.
Pham said Iran would have to sink three or four very large crude carriers daily, each holding up to 2 million barrels of oil, to have a significant effect on supply.
“This is nearly impossible,” he said. “They can cause a shock, they can cause psychological panic, but their actual capacity to do something is not there.”
Military analysts have not ruled out Iran using speedboats to attack tanker traffic.
The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence said in a study last year Iran’s Revolutionary Guards had control of smaller and faster boats which had “serious firepower” including torpedoes and the Iranian-made Kowsar anti-ship cruise missiles.
However, few believe Iran will take that course because of fears of severe retaliation by the West, given that the U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in the region.
“That would be far too provocative. It would unleash hell,” MRM’s Dalby said.
I find it unlikely that the US would try to confront Iran in an open war. Iran is most likely a to strong adversary for that. Hit and run missions such as airstrikes and missiles sure, but a land invasion - unlikely imho. Let’s not forget also that the Russian - Iranian relations seem to be pretty good, that’s another obstacle.
If there would be a conflict, investors might decide to move funds to “safe havens” as they did during the financial crisis and the usd could strengthen from that.
Or the opposite, it’s hard to tell really.
Hopefully there won’t have to be a conflict at all, let’s hope the Iranian people can create freedom and democracy for themselves.
It won’t happen.
Iran, Israel & US are partners in Iraq.
Iran, India, Israel & US mercenaries are together active in Pakistan.
The danger lies further east & I don’t mean China.
What are the thoughts on what might happen to the $$?
Nothing.
Possible positioning prediction.
So you want to profit from dirty games, are you?
Look at where geographically the US put troops in countries in middle east. Then look what country is in the middle.
Then start reading the Koran and check the words of peace from politicians against. If you find any sort of truth in those words, repeat reading the Koran.
Iran war is just a matter of time. The Islamic cult is a war cult and they have a big youth bulge. That means more terror and more war. Right now they try to take over Europe and more countries in Asia. Slowly, via birth rate.
That is all written in granite and the bible since 1600 years and visible for everybody with open eyes and mind right now.
The US is planning to withdraw from Afghanistan.
The US would like to withdraw from Iraq.
Israel will most likely not strike first against Iran as that might unite the whole surrounding arab world against them, something not even the Israeli military would be able to handle.
Iran, unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, is not a country in deterioration and it is highly unlikely that even the worlds only superpower would be able to invade and defeat the Iranian defenses.
Note how the US has not even contemplated attacking North Korea for the same reason - it is not doable military-wise
Islam is no more violent than Christianity if you read the Koran and compare it to the old Testament. It’s all about who uses it for their purposes. We in the Christian world have had our fair share of evil maniacs. Hitler, Stalin to name the most obvious. Religion, all of them, are just tools, not the source of violence.
In conclusion, both Iran and the US have a lot to lose by going to war. It is imho very unlikely that it will get to that.
That is what my open mind sees, unpoisoned by any and all religions. Science is the only God I believe in.
First, we are both on the same page with science. Plus let me say that I like to discuss that topic with you and will respect your different opinion and thanks for your reply.
I just add a bit of love and spirituality of the universe to this science to let it not be that cold. Though, there is unfortunately a difference of Islam and some other religions, Christianity included. I can very well understand your opinion and I had a couple of years ago the same opinion. That’s how we grew up and were taught to think. Unfortunately, we all get cheated by politicians. They cheat on the middle age history and they cheat with other things. I won’t distract anything with Christianity, just a few words: Christianity has which is inherent meaning of it’s word, not much to do anymore with the old sometimes barely violent old testament. Jesus was a prayer of love and peace and so the new testament is written with love and peace. If you look at the founder of Islam, who is Mohammed, he is the exact opposite. He was a child abuser, an aggressive terror and war leader and you can even find that behavior in todays newspapers, if you like. Look for terror attacks, islamic killings of people like van Gogh in Netherlands, free speech pressure with caricatures etc. pp. If you open your eyes clearly and don’t let the left wing intruders confuse your mind, you will learn to see it like me, I guess.
Then there were the crusaders. Most politicians who are cheating blame them for attacking Muslims, let behind the curtain, that the Muslims were attacking the western world and that the crusadership was a back fight. If not you would have probably today pray allah 5 times a day and would not have any science. Not to say that some crusaders went too far.
The world is a big cheating ball with a 5% substantial truth. Like forex. So it goes what the US says or officials from Europe say and what they do. That’s two pair of shoes. It is like on forex, where you can see sometimes price is moving and act on it. If you see that the US put the troops around Iran, it has a reason. It is not just a random move.
Well, let me conclude that’s my opinion and I didn’t put in all of my arguments. I red a lot of stuff in the last decade about and that I can’t all put in here in one posting. If you like I can give you links to more material to read on. To understand, what happens and why does it happen. Might help you on forex trading also, because everything is connected with everything. I will do this only on request, though. I am not a missioner. I know that our western world is built upon the christian Jewish world. I do not negate that as many socialistic party’s (I know that even Sweden is very socialistic - a nice country by the way. Love Stockholm, Malmoe and the parts in between). Though I have nothing to do with any church or religion at all. Call myself anti religious. Not to negate that I learn also about religions and their history. I do for instance see Jesus as a heretic. He had not often good words for the church. Anyways, whatever the church in the middle age did, that is right now not our problem. The biggest problems what I see right now is at number one socialism and as number two Islamisation of particular Europe. I would not be surprised if Sweden in a few years use the sharia for decide what is right and wrong. Belgium and UK right now the tip of the movement, though. I just mention honor killings and all that. I know Sweden and particular Malmoe has a lot of problems with that and the youth bulge. Did we have that 50 years ago? No, never.
Well, I hope I did not shake your mind too much right now. I just talk about my opinion and my outcome of readings and experience. I also won’t insult any religious member. Muslims are often the victims for themself without any chance. The problem is the ideology here. As you probably know that Islam and government is not secularized as in our western world. That is all one mingled pot. So, the ideologies are the enemies and their founders, like as you said Stalin, Hitler, Pol pot and how they all got called…, not the folks like you and me. As long as we do not follow the sick cheaters and keep thinking. I’d just add Mohammed to that reign of enemies. The Koran is not so much different from Mein Kampf. Both against the Jews. In the Koran not only, but also against other religions. Allah is the center of the universe and if anybody is not with them, they must be killed. That it is not only pathetic you can see every day in newspapers. The book, the ideology and the practical outcome are related 1:1. Everything else is just Taqiyya. Allah allowed the Muslims to lie and cheat if they are in Djihad. All muslims in the western world are in permanent djihad, as long as everybody on this planet believes in Allah. That is their center of their religion. That doesn’t mean every muslim is a warrior. Even with Hitler many Germans did not fight in war, but they helped to grow the ideology or to bring the war to other countries.
I know also the different thinking of people in Europe and in the US. I lived here for years and now I am often shuttling between the continents. A lot of the old guys here in the south have the same opinion as I have. Not so much people in Europe. They are too much brain washed by socialistic politicians. If I tell somebody here we have in Europe gas prices of 8 bucks a gallon and sales tax of 20% they look like I would come from another star. 
Arab countries United? not gonna happen unless they all revolt against the leaders, look closely to each and every Arab country, there is a King or a president who is glued to the office or the president son?!!?!?
the only time they were some what united was during the Arab Israeli wars and it didn’t last.
it all started with the British and french colonization of ottoman empire.
Islam is no more violent than Christianity if you read the Koran and compare it to the old Testament. It’s all about who uses it for their purposes. We in the Christian world have had our fair share of evil maniacs. Hitler, Stalin to name the most obvious. Religion, all of them, are just tools, not the source of violence…
agree with you on that one
for Iran, Israel would think about repeating what it did with the Iraqi reactor in the 80’s but it wont be as easy, but the coincident is that the lead Iranian nuclear scientist was murder, just like they did with the Iraqi ones back then.
I think it is quite possible that the USA, Israel or both could attack Iran.
Since when are U.S. and Iranian forces working together ? I must have missed that.
Unlikely that the U.S will attack anyone with a democrat president in office. Troop pull outs are more likely.
Nothing will happen until after Iran has the bomb, then it’s too late, just like North Korea.
“deal with a thing while it is still nothing”
-Lao Tzu
Well, if that happens, then say good bye to the western world, science and free speech. If the Iran gets the bomb, then good night. They are not just like Hitler or like Stalin. The religious leaders in Iran are connected to around 1 billion muslims around the world. This Ahmadinedjad believes in the 12. prophet. If he gets the bomb and could bring it with his own hands to the white house, he would do it. So, then start buying a hijab for your girl at Wal Mart and say good bye to pork, music and all that. 
Ya know, I lived for a loooong time in Berlin. Got all that with me when the wall broke down. Plus thereafter when the islamisation took place. We had there every christmas a big christmas tree and santa clause on top of the warehouse. Then at first they started to say sorry for it when the muslim organizations started yelling. Now take a mag glass and you will not see any christmas tree or santa clause. Last year or so they had a Mohammad constellation in the window. I know what is going on in the world. Were at too many places.
So, I guess thats not gonna happen. Obama and the rats are just greedy for power but not stupid at all. They know what is going on very clearly. There are enough secret services in the world who can deliver info. At least Israel will not let that happen. If Iran gets the bomb, the being of Israel is a matter of time. They know that very well.
Plus NObama is history soon. His second election is a myth, just existing in the mind of some traders.
Even more people around the world know what is going on. It’s just the same old mistake as in the last century they do: Appeasement. Appeasement makes it worse, but in the end after a conflict the world will not let produce some retarded bastards the bomb. If they fail, good night!
Yep it’s inevitable.
I think the issues is whether or not they decide to stay after to rebuild the country, if it needs it. This will cause the same drain on the US economy as the Iraq war.
You really think they’ll do that ? 
I honestly doubt it they care so much … after all let’s not forget what the real reason was for the war in Iraq.
Best Regards,
Matt Jones 
.
The US & it’s dog’s of war [mercenaries] will never do that.
Afghanistan is home of the two biggest CIA & US Special Force compounds ever constructed anywhere in the world.
One is in Kabul & the other one is in the Hindukush.
A third one is build in Islamabad/Pakistan.
The medium term strategic goal is the permanent presence of the US in Central Asia in order to keep China & Russia away from the vast Oil & Gas reserves in Central Asia.
The long term strategic goal is the presence of US & NATO troops directly on China’s borders & control of Central Asia.
Iraq was the first gig to get there.
Afghanistan is the second gig to get there.
Pakistan is the next gig to get there.
Turkey will be the next gig after that.
The US would like to withdraw from Iraq.
Nothing more than lip service.
Israel will most likely not strike first against Iran as that might unite the whole surrounding arab world against them, something not even the Israeli military would be able to handle.
If the US Military command keep’s the required weapon technology out of Israel’s hands & the US military command has managed that to this date, Israel is not capable of doing ANYTHING to Iran without risking serious damage to themselves.
Israel know’s that very well!
Add to that Kurdistan & Balochistan & you have another two reasons why Israel is NOT going to do start anything with the IRAN WITHOUT this required weapon technology.
And as long as there are [B]sensible & responsible US Generals[/B] around Israel won’t get that weapon technology.
US Generals have even said so.
They are standing up now. I believe the people’s power will show it force even in islamic country like Iran.
My salute to Iranian who stands up against Tyranny
Sometimes ignorance hurts!
Iran is not an islamic country.
It’s given itself the clothes of an islamic county to keep up appearances to reach her strategic goal.
Iran is ruled by [B]The Basiji [/B]& the [B]mullahs of CUM[/B] who have their origins from the Revolutionary Guards brought into existence by Ayatollah Khomeini.
The [B]mullahs of CUM[/B] are an [U]ancient sect & worship Occultation[/U].
All of the mullahs carry a ring to identify themselves.
It’s called the ring of CUM.
The [B]mullahs of CUM[/B] propagate a “Quietist” school of Shiism, which instructs that during the absence of the twelfth Imam—his “major Occultation,” in Shiite parlance—the ayatollahs, as the highest authority of Shiism, [B][U]should not seize power and attempt to create an “Islamic state.”[/U][/B]
Now, that’s as far away from Arabic, Koran, Mohammed & Islam as you can get!
[B]Iran is Persia![/B]
The name Iran has only been in use since 1935 & is used in a politicially context.
Persia is still used in cultural contexts.
Persia’s / Iran’s stated long-term strategic goal is the re-building & the re-establishing of the former Persian Empire.
Persia’s/Iran’s strategic missions have been excecuted under this strategic objective from Lebanon over Palistine to Iraq into Saudi Arabia.
Hezbollah in Lebanon & Hamas in Palistine are Iranian controlled organisation. The same goes for Maliki in Iraq & the current Iraq government & the insurgence in Balochistan [a province belonging to Pakistan & taken from Iran] & insurgency in Saudi Arabia.
Israel’s Mossad recent killing of a Hamas Leader in Dubai is a direct result of Iranian activities in Saudi Arabia.
Not the sort of stuff you hear on the evening news. What sources do you get your information from?
Didn’t Israel alone attack Iraq back before the U.S. got in over there? So why wouldn’t they attack Iran? Well one reason is they would have to fly over Iraq air space. That won’t happen while there is a U.S. pressence in Iraq.
Now if Obama pulls out of Iraq then the coast is clear for Israel to do something and they’ve demonstrated in the past that they aren’t afraid to do something.
Israel already has the bomb, if Iran gets it, then neither side will do anything for the same reason the U.S. and Soviet Union never went to a hot war.
M.A.D. Mutual Assured Destruction.
Both sides would loose.
Of course if you have a fruitcake on one side who doesn’t care if he gets vaporized then who knows…
Yes, unfortunately you’re 100% right about that. Same phenomenon is going on in Sweden and it makes me sick!