What’s the target on the trade? Now that we’ve broken the support, I’m looking to go short.
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You’ll be right 'til the end of next month because of the Sinopec/Addax deal.
The real Crude Oil move will start next Monday night. Once Crude Oil hit’s 74.20 we’re on our way to 87.00 and 100.47 after that.
The USDCAD pair will move accordingly in it’s opposite direction. I reckon around 1.0222 is the bottom.
You’re welcome. Follow the primus and you’ll be right…
Good luck.
I closed this trade right after I saw the positive news on ISSM today morning at 7.00 AM PST.
Crude Oil just now went through weekly 200 EMA from below to test 72.00
USDCAD pair is back to around 1.0680.
That’s all confirmation and pointing to anticipated big moves starting next Monday night…
Nice details.
TD securities is expecting par by year end. So at least the direction from here is the same.
And what does everyone think about Jim Flaherty’s comment about a potentially stronger CAD and intervening to weaken it: “There are some steps that could be taken to dampen that”
Thx.
Now that’s an interesting prediction.
I checked 2008 data…par by year end would point to Crude Oil between 126.00 and 133.00.
I can’t see that happening because Crude Oil price is THE de-facto barometer of inflation. It has taken that function from gold.
Also, it would have a profound effect on the YEN because of rising energy costs for Japan.
Thanks cas for the helpful informations, it helps a lot…what do u think about the price goes down from today 'till the next a few weeks as Goldman recommended or not…please advise…
Thanks in advance…
Why would the BoC intervene [B]before[/B] a major move UP in Crude Oil…?
All what it would do is helping the japanese to get their oil imports cheaper and hurting the canadian oil industry at the same time.
I wouldn’t think the BoC is interested…
A weaker currency wCheaper imports for Japan would allow them to purchase more oil helping the Canadian economy. Same as I don’t think the typical American exporter would be disappointed by the USD getting weaker because it makes their products cheaper for foreigners to import.
I have to disagree. I don’t think the BOC would care that they would be helping make exports cheaper, if anything that’s exactly why they would do it. If it helps the Japanese import more oil then all the better for the Canadian economy.
Here’s an article from Bloomberg along the lines what I was thinking Bank Intervention Would Hold Down Loonie, Caisse Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
I personally don’t think there’s high likelihood of intervention. In the end, Canada has the things the rest of the world wants from oil to natural resources and their economy is expected to grow this quarter.
30 minutes ago Crude Oil shot [B]UP[/B] 200 pips in less than a minute to hit 72.80.
According to intermarket relationship the USDCAD pair should drop like a rock.
Jason,
I can’t figure out what is happening with the usdcad pair @present. The usdcad pair went full circle in the past week.
When you have a look at attached charts usdcad pair does not seem to care about crude oil @present. It’s almost like usdcad pair has de-coupled from crude or vice versa. I can’t figure out the reason.
cas
Hey all,
I actually got confused with usdcad pair. the crude oil went the highest point above 74. the pair supposed to drop down, but now it seems that it is going long… lets see wht happen next week…btw, Im going short from 1.0980
waht about next week, what is ur strategy cas…? r u going long or short…
Hi mov,
This is what happened…
@14.08.2009 18:00:01 EDT Crude Oil moved from 70.91 to 72.88 in less than a minute.
USDCAD pair stayed @1.0870 during that time. [B]It did not move down.[/B]
14 hours later Crude Oil started to [B]drop[/B] from 72.87 to 69.38 in the space of 4 hours.
USDCAD pair [B]moved up[/B] to 1.1017 as intermarket correlation suggests.
Same as last weeks move up in Crude Oil that got reflected in USDCAD pair move down.
This is why the USDCAD pair sits @1.0811 instead of around 1.0555.
Now, I don’t know as to why the USDCAD pair has been behaving like it did. And when I don’t know I stay out and watch.
Otherwise I lose money.
cas
hi,
Thanks cas for your reply, good luck in this week lets see what will happen
Less than one hour to go lets see what this week hide
If the pair breaks 1.0730 ill complete my short
good luck all…
I’m long Crude Oil since 74.60 got hit.
Also long CADJPY since Crude Oil hit 74.60
Also short USDCAD since Crude Oil hit 74.60
I went on the Crude Oil train with 2 pairs thrown in…LOL…!
lol, I’m getting on board also
Interesting point there with CAD failing to rally last week when crude went from 65 to 71. Delayed reaction? but CAD is making up for it now. I wasn’t watching it last week, so happy you posted to bring back my attention 
USD/CAD on a daily chart looks setup to break lower. I’ve been surprised that both oil and stocks are continuously moving higher. Maybe I’ve been brainwashed by Nouriel Roubini and the double dip recession hahah
See chart with USD/CAD (candlesticks) and oil price (white line) overlay
I got off the trade after breaking 1.0755…it seems that the trade is going long and i donna want lose
I’ll wait until i see another movement down
what do you think guys?
Did I jinx it?