Are trendlines key to your analysis?
The level of 139.400 is a significant level since the price had a strong rejection there. The pair is traded above the level as of writing. A bullish move from there may push the price towards the North. The sellers may wait for a bearish move to go short in the pair.
No sign of stopping
The pair has been bullish for a long time in the H4 chart. The level of 140.700 has been working as a level of resistance. If the price makes a bearish breakout at 140.00, the pair may make a bearish move.
These are massive round figure numbers. There will definitely be in orders stacked at the 140.00 especially
USDJPY
This pair has been on a bullish run for months and every time I have tried to sell it I always get stopped. Now I am only looking for short term 4 hour pull backs to continue the buys. Targeting the previous highs each set up.
This set up is a short term drop down in to a daily FVG looking for Price action during London open tomorrow.
Keep a close eye on market structure and remember key entry and price action will be needed.
What do you think of this pair at the moment? Let me know what you think of this set up.
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Solid area, i like FVGs they are really powerful
USDJPY Buy idea.
Still only looking for buying opportunities on this pair for the moment. Currently we have made relative equal highs and a small retracement to fill in the imbalance. From here I will be looking for this pair to come down and retest the OB but hold above the low. As we can see this would be 70% to 79% on the fib levels. Once we get back down to this area during a trading session i will be looking for a smaller TF break in structure.
Keep a close eye on market structure and remember key entry and price action will be needed.
Let me know what you think of this set up.
If we break the low continuation to the down side will be expected and trade invalid.
Let me know what you think of the idea.
USD certainly seems to still have the power to make moves
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Its such a multi faceted currency from safe haven to currency of trade. Really is the epicentre atm
The pair had its third rejection at 145.000. As of writing, the H4 chart is about to produce a long bearish candle. The pair may get bearish.
USDJPY
Today we seen a massive move on this pair and on the daily we have taken the highs and the lows. We seen this pair break right back down to an untested order block and reacted from there This could be the start of the bearish run or just a correction move clearing up liquidity before a continuation to the up side.
I will be looking for this pair to come back down retest the breaker move and then continue to the up side. Targeting the bottom of the last bullish candle and then see what we do from there.
Keep a close eye on market structure and remember key entry and price action will be needed.
Make sure you use proper risk management when trading.
What did you make of the move today?
Be aware that the BoJ intervened in the market today - first time in 22 years.
They used foreign reserves to buy Yen - not known how much - will know at end of month.
They have an arsenal of Tr1.3 usd - will have used only a portion and will do so again at the 145.00 level.
So if buying at 145.00 a retail trader will be taking on the Central Bank in a game of dare.
The pair may find its support at the marked zone. A double bottom may attract the buyers to go long and push the price towards the North. However, the last bearish move suggests that the pair may end up making a bearish breakout here as well.
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Possibly but I think the bears may take control
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Itll all depend on USD this week and whether there’ll be another leg higher on DXY
It would be counterproductive for Jaan to sell their USTs.
Selling USTs in exchange for USD would result in higher UST rates. More global capital would then flow into USTs, which would further increase demand for USD, which would mean further USD appreciation.
In a nutshell, selling USTs would have the opposite effect. as interest rate differentials widen between countries (selling bonds increases their rates), USD would strengthen even further against JPY (and other currencies).
What would help is if the BOJ borrowed USD from the Fed using their U.S. Treasury holdings as collateral. Once in possession of the USD, they then sell them in the market for JPY.
Once USD has weakened enough, they can buy it back and pay back the loan.
Theoretically, this should be possible with the Fed’s FIMA Repo Facility.
Of course, this would backfire if the USD continued to strengthen across the board (which it has been).
The best solution would be a globally coordinated move by all major central banks to weaken the USD similar to the Plaza Accord, or the more recent (and secretive) Shanghai Accord.
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The problem for the BoJ - well maybe more for the MoF is that it’s buying Yen to strengthen - more a difficult task than weakening - the SNB gave up trying to do that.
I suspect that for Japan there is more power is the use of words than actions.
Likely the 145 level will get tested a few times up ahead - then like the SNB in 2015 intervention will ultimately fail - except of course the Fed become fed up with the USD rise and decide to act.
I know that quite a few retail traders lost not only money but their confidence in Jan 2015 and of course FXCM and Alpari also lost substantially - the hope is that there will not be a repeat.
A free market performs best when it’s free from Govt interference.
Anyways we will know the actual scope of interference soon enough and likely will be surprisingly low - it’s the threat of more that will weigh.
For guys learning - the Plaza Accord was multi govt interference in the market back a few years - things were different then, the market was subject to political interference much more readily than today - the notion of central banks independence hadn’t gained traction.
The Shanghai Accord is the more modern version - apparently happened in 2016 - the G7 of 1985 is now much larger and more conflicting aspirations - a weaker USD may help US expotrts but will it help the EU or China?
Here are some thoughts back 6 years - it’s a safe site.
What the Shanghai Accord Means for the US Dollar (businessinsider.com)
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The pair has been trading within a range in the H4 chart. After making a strong bearish move, it has been moving towards the North. The level of 144.750 may work as a level of resistance. The sellers may wait for the price to produce a bearish reversal to go short in the pair.