In addition to New Zealand, also Hungary and Turkey will announce their interest rate decisions. I’m curious to see what Turkey is going to do.
Today we had no high relevant market movers and we only received, from the United States, data on home sales and the economy index of the Chicago Fed (better than the previous one but not as analysts were expecting).
Yesterday we had in Japan the confirmation of the political strength of Shinzo Abe, who also won a majority in the Upper House of Parliament (the Senate, where partial elections are scheduled every three years) and pushed up the Nikkei index to rise in the first session of the week.
The other major indices started very positively ending the session a little above Friday’s values.
The economic calendar tomorrow will present, as most important news, the Bank oj Japan’s monthly report, the consumer confidence in the euro area and the retail sales in Canada.
ANALYSIS
Silver: the daily chart shows a slight short term upward move, with the price of this metal consolidating around the major resistance area $20, within a medium-term trend that is still bearish. The current situation is very important because we are in line with the moving average 21 and in a key area of the chart both in a static and dynamic view. A violation upwards of the Silver (like the one it’s drawing today!), with a potential long trading signal, would be very interesting to see the price up to $22 again (it’s possible considering that the correlated Gold just confirmed the breakout of the EMA21 and is now testing the dynamic and static area $1335!).
If, on the contrary, the key level at $20 will confirm its strength we might also see a return to the support zone $18.50 and in that case I might evaluate one of my short trading signals.
See you next Wednesday!
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Today’s economic calendar highlighted, among the major market movers, the trade balance in Japan (decreasing), the Australian inflation (2.4% better than expected and closer to the target of 2%) and various manufacturing PMI data: in China (still falling and confirming the weakness of this country), in the euro zone and Germany (both better than the forecast and the previous data). The main macroeconomic news of today is still the interest rate decision in New Zealand, up to be communicated in a few hours and it should not change the current level of 2.50% .
Stock markets closed a positive session, especially the European ones, even the S&P and the Dow are still affected by the closeness to the historic tops.
Tomorrow it will be released the German IFO Confidence Index, the British gross domestic product and, from the United States, the durable goods orders and the initial jobless claims.
ANALYSIS
Gbp-Yen: the strong momentum of the pound has confirmed the price above the 152 level (and above the moving average) close to the resistance area 153,80/154.
The medium term is not very clear (as almost all Yen pairs) but the short-term trend is definitely bullish and an up break of the resistance mentioned above could push again Gbp-Yen up to the top levels of May at 156.50.
See you next Friday with my weekly analysis!
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
The week ending today has been rather “quiet” from a macroeconomic point of view with only one interest rate decision (in New Zealand, with the confirmation of 2.50%) and other standard volatility fundamental news.
The Japanese Cabinet monthly report showed improvements in the economic situation and a good outlook for the achieving of the expected inflation target.
Even from Australia we had a positive result in the prices level, in the direction of the target.
The manufacturing output, reported last Wednesday, confirmed the weakness of China (which continues to affect the commodity currencies) and the moderate strength of Europe (at least from this point of view, despite the decline in the consumers’ confidence).
Next week will be the most intense and volatile of all the new month of August with three rate decision meetings and the most important news of the forex market, the US employment change(NFPR), along with U.S. unemployment data. So we expect high volatility in the next few days and let’s pay attention to our open trades and new operative strategies.
Let’s see all the economic calendar and some potential profit opportunities in my weekly video!
Have a nice week-end
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
I agree, next week will generate the classical volatility of the month August.
Today begins the most intense week throughout the month of August with three interest rate decisions and the important data on the U.S. labor market next Friday.
The major stock indices had an indecision session with worste performance for Milan and Tokyo (-3.30% for the Nikkey).
Today’s economic calendar highlighted the BoJ Governor Kuroda’s speech to Japanese research institute reporting the progress of the Japanese economy and the best situation of inflation (in line with the target) thanks to the “quantitative easing” program begun last April.
Tomorrow we will receive the Japanese unemployment rate and industrial production, the German inflation and the consumer confidence in Europe and United States.
ANALYSIS
Aud-Usd: the weekly chart shows a medium term bearish trend, currently under correction and still below the moving average. This situation, on the daily chart, is well represented by a monthly laterality between the upper level 0.93/0.9350 and the lower side 0.90 . In this resistance area we could find one of my short signals to enter into a possible downward continuation with target on 0.88 area or, at least, on the bottom of the range.
Obviously an upward break, with a following buying trading signal, might change the short-term perspective and generate a return to the 0.9650 resistance level.
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
A delicate moment for the Pound. If EurGbp exceeds the resistance, it might come back on the top of 2009.
Today we have the first of three “high volatility” days that affect mainly the United States and Europe.
A few minutes ago the Federal Reserve confirmed the interest rate level at 0,25% as well as the continuation of the current expansionary monetary policy, with the purpose to reduce the stimulus as soon as macroeconomic conditions will allow it.
In addition to the Fed’s meeting, today we had many other economic news you can read below: Japan’s manufacturing PMI (downward as yesterday’s industrial production), data from the German labor market (better employment and unchanged unemployment), the inflation and unemployment rate in the euro zone (a little bit lower the first one and unchanged at 12,1% the last one), the gross domestic product in the United States and Canada (both picking up with the first one also better than expected), the USOil proved reserves by the Energy Department (with an unexpected rise).
Asian stock markets closed negative, Europeans were contrasted while American indices rose for Fed’s QE continuation.
Tomorrow’s economic calendar will show us the manufacturing output in Australia, China, U.S.A, euro zone and UK, the US jobless claims and, especially, the meetings of the ECB and the Bank of England for the rate decisions and the monetary policy statements.
ANALYSIS
Gbp-Chf: the daily chart shows a clear downward move (which many “Forex Friends” negotiated 3 days ago, after my daily video, closing at take profit!) that reached today the support level 1.4070. This area is important also in the weekly chart and could be considered for a buying entry (countertrend) in case of a strong reversal signal or alternatively (less risky solution) we could expect a technical correction in the intermediate price 1.4180, with one of my bearish trading signals, to consider a new downward trend breaking the support level mentioned above and reaching the next area 1.3850.
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
P.S: I remind you that all trades opened with Forex Friends refer to signals reported in “real time” and realized in my real account! I do not use to open a lot of positions on a demo account and then highlighting only those which “take the desired direction”, presenting them as a great success!
As I told you last Friday, in these days we saw a great volatility following the release of macroeconomic data that, all together, will make this week the most intense of all August.
Between Wednesday and Thursday we had the meetings of the three major central banks, the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England, with the unanimous confirmation of previous interest rates and monetary policy guidelines.
Today we received the U.S. labor market data (Non Farm Payrolls, lower than expected) and therefore it was very likely to see particularly strong movements in the USD.
The major stock markets closed the week with " two speeds" with an initial weakness and then, after the U.S. economic data, a recovery that confirms the positive trend of the last period and the month just ended.
Next week will be more “calm” and will highlight just one rate decision, in Australia. As always, let’s see together the economic calendar and our naked charts in my weekly video.
Have a nice week-end
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
After the U.S. labor market data, with most traders disappointed by the last NFPR and the delay of the “tapering” (reduction of the bond purchase by the Fed), almost all major Asian markets ended negatively the first session of the week (Tokyo -1.44%). The European indices were more undecided with an initial slightly positive opening and then closing around the parity.
In this day with no particularly important market movers we can remember a couple retail sales data in Australia (below the expectations and the previous data) and in the euro zone (with a sharp fall but not as analysts expected).
The New Zealand dollar has been very weak today due to the concerns of dairy product botulism toxin of company Fonterra (world leader), which generated the banning of babys’ milk imports from China as well as a possible domino effect on other agricultural products for export.
The main news of tomorrow will be the interest rate decision in Australia and it will be very interesting to see if the possible cuts, mentioned by Governor Glenn Stevens a few days ago, will start right tomorrow or in the next meetings. From England we will receive data on industrial and manufacturing production and GDP estimate.
ANALYSIS
Usd-Yen: the price, on the daily chart, it still moving below the moving average and the major resistance in area 100 (where just reacted last Friday). The strengthening of the yen and the simultaneous depreciation of the dollar, after the NFPR, confirmed the short-term bearish movement, whose main support is still area 96.
Anyway, there is an intermediate level that deserves a special attention, the 97.50 area (where we could find Long trading signals), because there is a potential dynamic support level represented by the medium-term bullish trendline that could lead again the Usd-Yen up to the resistance mentioned above and, in case of a bullish breakout, also to the maximum levels of last May (and of the last five years) in area 103.
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
After yesterday’s decision on Australian interest rates, we had also today an important market mover from Oceania and precisely the labor market data from New Zealand (employment and unemployment, both slightly higher than expected).
From Europe we received the German industrial production (sharply higher than the forecast) and the British inflation (at 2,6%) with the Bank of England that also declared its decision not to increase the interest rates until unemployment will drop below 7%; a clear and precise attitude towards the market (like the Fed’s one we listened a few days ago) that pushed the pound upward today.
The major stock indices closed a negative session with the exception of Milan and Madrid.
The economic calendar for tomorrow will show us the rate decision in Japan, with the monetary policy statement, the data on the Australian labor market and the ECB monthly report.
ANALYSIS
Gold: the price of the Gold seems to be more under a sale pressure sale after a period of accumulation that gave the idea to prepare an upward breakout of $1.350 level. The Gold, however, reacted in the dynamic resistance, represented by the bearish trendline of last May, breaking the moving average and approaching the significant level $1.265 (also tested, as resistance, in June 2010). The confirmed breakout of this key level, always with one of my short trading signals, could give the green light for a short entry in the Gold with first target in the support $1.200 and then $1.150 area.
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
My name is Maurizio Orsini, I’m an italian indipendent trader working in the Forex market with the Price Action Daily Method. I use to analize my charts with no indicator or oscillators but just the most important thing…the PRICE! I work with weekly and daily time frame (max H4) realizing 15-20 trades each month, respecting in a strictly way the rules of my method and especially my money mangement. I use to analize each evening, (italian time) in only 30 minutes, the Forex market searching for a signal of my trading plan and I open a position after having analized the weekly and correlation situation.
I’m not a scalper so I don’t spend my time in front of my PC…I just analize for a few minutes the situation, after Wall Street closed, and if the price shows me a good opportunity (also in term of risk/reward) I take a position otherwise I just turn off my trading platform and wait the nex day!
I hope you’ll enjoy my “humble opinion” and forgive my bad english.
I insert my last analysis (realized yesterday at 23hr italian time) and wish you all a nice trading time!
Cordially, Maurizio
The first week of August ends with low liquidity (due to the summer vacations in many countries) and a moderate volatility, especially considering the one we had the previous week.
On Tuesday, the central bank of Australia decided to reduce the interest rate to 2.50%, with the possibility of further cuts in order to support the country’s recovery, reduce the strength of its currency and control the possible negative effects of the inflation.
No news from Japan with the confirmation of the current expansionary monetary policy and stimulus measures, adopted by the BoJ last April, in order to achieve the main target of an inflation at 2%. The economic situation in the country remains in a moderate recovery.
Wednesday we received an important message by the Bank of England: Governor Mark Carney decided to relate the level of interest rates to unemployment (as the Fed just announced). So British rates will remain steady until the unemployment rate (currently at 7.8%) will go below 7% and this may require, according to the macro data, up to three years.
Yesterday the ECB’s monthly report confirmed a slight increase in the economic situation of the euro zone that might continue throughout this year and into 2014, according to some positive macroeconomic data such as the consumer confidence and the exports (due to the increase of the global demand). The domestic demand remains weak, but it will be supported by the current expansionary monetary policy that is confirmed unchanged until needed.
Next week we will have more data to comment, but no rates decisions. Let’s see the economic calendar and the technical analysis of my “naked charts” in the usual weekly video.
Have a nice week-end everybody
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
really good suggestion thanks for sharing…
you are welcome
The first session of the week has been characterized by a contrasted closure of the main indices with a performance similar to the last one.
The only major market movers arrived from Japan with communication of the gross domestic product (below the forecast and the previous data) and the industrial production (slightly recovering).
From Japan we will also know, tomorrow, the minutes of the central bank’s monetary policy meeting of last July.
From Europe we will receive several macro data: the inflation in Germany and United Kingdom, the industrial production and economic sentiment in the euro zone, the German ZEW index.
From the U.S. we will have the data on retail sales.
ANALYSIS
Eur-Yen: this time we look at the weekly chart to understand why we must be careful before making a short entry on this pair. The daily time frame is definitely bearish (below the EMA21 and below 129 intermediate resistance) but selling now means taking the risk to see the price rebounding, as happened today, in the static and dynamic weekly support 128. As a matter of fact, the weekly chart is actually bullish, exactly in line with the moving average, so we still could see a reaction of Eur-Yen up to the target level 133.
On the contrary a confirmation below 128, and expecially a down break of 126 support level, could involve a change in the medium-term trend with the possibility for a return to the level 120. This latter scenario however, from a fundamental point of view, would be against the so called “Abenomics” the Shinzo Abe’s economic policy and the need for a depreciation of the Japanese yen to achieve the increase in inflation … let’s see what the market will decide!
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
The economic calendar today presented from Germany the data on gross domestic product (above expectations); from the United Kingdom we received the Minutes of the last Bank of England’s meeting (which emphasized the unanimous confirmation of the interest rate and monetary policy) along with the British labor market data (with a steady unemployment and a better employment situation); from Europe it’s been released the euro area GDP (in recovery to -0.7%) and from the United States the producer price index which was lower than expected.
The major stock exchanges closed today with a slight strength in Europe (except London) and lower than yesterday in USA.
Tomorrow, with the closure of the Italian and Swiss market for the Assumption, the economic calendar will show us the data on retail sales in England and several U.S. data (industrial production, jobless claims and inflation).
ANALYSIS
US Oil: after touching the $102, a few days ago, the price of the WTI returns back above $106 drawing in the daily chart an inside candle, above the moving average and within a short term uptrend. The possible target of this movement is the area of $108.50 in which I will consider either the presence of a short signal to enter the trading range with target $103 or a bullish breakout (with a long trading signal) to see a possible stronger upward movement with target on $113 level.
If, on the contrary, the price will break down the inside pattern (and also the moving average) I would expect it to reach the support mentioned above to understand what price action wilI “communicate”.
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Hi MauriForex, what is your Favourite Book on Trading
Hi! I have none about trading…my favourite books are about market analysis and are both written by John Murphy: “Technical analysis of financial markets” and “Intermarket analysis”.
Have a nice weekend, see you.
Maurizio
The week ending today has not been characterized by a strong volatility, such as the first days of the month, with the exception of some movements in the USD yesterday after jobless claims news.
We did not have any interest rate decision but there were published two central banks’ Minutes by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. In these publications both institutions have confirmed the existing monetary policy (as well as the previous rate). From England we also received data on the labor market that resulted moderately positive.
Also from Europe we had very positive news regarding the economic confidence and he growth, with a German ZEW index well above expectations, and the GDP of Germany and the euro area picking up. We are always waiting for a strong improvement also in the labor market.
In the United States we can especially underline a steady inflation and a decrease in the industrial production and in the jobless claims.
We can watch together the economic calendar of the next week and some interesting ideas of technical analysis in my naked charts!
Have a nice week-end everybody
Regards
Maurizio Orsini