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Daily analysis of Forex market, Gold daily chart.
Gold: with the confirmed break out of level $1345 last week, the gold continues its short-term upward move (always above the moving average) which might have as its next target the resistance area $1415, just tested a couple of months ago. The strategy is to wait for one of my long price action signals in the support level $1345 to buy at a better price with the confirmation of a return of the buyers’ strength.
If the downward correction of the gold will not occur we might also consider a bearish trading signal in the resistance zone mentioned above (paying a lot of attention because it would be a countertrend trade!).
Macroeconomics news
Today’s economic calendar did not show a very high expected volatility market movers, but however we can remember the Japanese trade balance (highlighting an increase in exports and even more in imports).
The major stock indices opened negatively the first session of the week and they were weak throughout the day in an atmosphere of waiting for the possible communications of the Fed in the meeting of next Wednesday.
In my daily forex analysis I can highlight a slight recovery of the US dollar, weakness for the Japanese Yen and for the main commodities, a contrasted session for the euro.
Tomorrow, as most important news, we will have the released of the Minutes by the RBA about the last rate decision with the specific guidelines on monetary policy.
Maurizio Orsini
Daily analysis of the Forex market, Gas daily chart.
Natural Gas: the price is within a medium-term bearish movement, begun last May, and is currently in a phase of upward technical correction. In the area of static and dynamic resistance $3,55 I’ll look for one of my short price action signals to enter a possible continuation of the bearish trend with a target in the key level $ 3,10 .
In case of an upward violation of the resistance, always confirmed by a trading signal, I will evaluate a buying entry to take advantage of a possible reversal move targeting the $ 3,80 area.
Macroeconomics news
Today we had two relevant market movers, both from the United States, the existing homes sales (rising above the forecast) and the Minute of the FOMC. Especially this last communication was very awaited by the markets to understand, by the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting, the possible development of monetary stimulus of the Fed. As a matter of fact Bernanke confirmed the intention of the Board to slow down the asset purchase later this year to complete the whole plan in 2014.
European stock indices (which closed before Fed’s communication) had an uncertain session ending in slight decrease, while American indices continues the decline of the previous days.
Analyzing the Forex market we can highlight a strong session for the pound, weakness for the Nzd and a recovery for the US dollar.
Tomorrow the economic calendar will show many data on manufacturing output (in China, Germany, euro zone and United States) as well as communication of the retail sales in Canada and the US jobless claims.
Maurizio Orsini
Reaching the important resistance of 4% yield on Bond should favor gold in the coming weeks.
This week was marked by the publication of the monetary policy’s Minutes in Australia and, especially, in the U.S. where the Fed’s communication was very awaited to understand the possible development of monetary stimulus plan of the U.S. central bank . The Reserve Bank of Australia after the description of the “not positive” domestic situation (modest growth, employment and wages declining, rising unemployment, exchange rate still appreciated) decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points confirming their availability for new future reductions if needed .
The Fed, with the release of the Minute last Wednesday, has confirmed the decision to proceed to a reduction of quantitative easing later this year and reaching its conclusion in 2014. The problem is that there is still no agreement among Fed’s members about the exact date of “tapering”, some of them would accelerate the beginning of this process, while others would rather wait a few more positive macroeconomic data.
In my usual weekly video you can watch all the most important news of next week and the most interesting opportunities of my naked charts.
Have a nice week-end everybody
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Great attention also to the various data coming from Japan. After the favorable August, it might be the time of the greater weakness for Jpy too.
Daily analysis of the Forex market, Dow Jones daily chart.
Dow Jones: the U.S. indices, no correlated with the Europeans at the moment, are in a very important situation because their are strongly influenced by the decisions of the Fed’s monetary policy and, in particular, by the beginning date of the tapering. The Dow Jones CFD remains in a short term bearish phase (after the highs reached in late July) but currently in a technical correction. The static resistance area 15080, with the arrival of the moving average too, is the main key level where I would be looking for a short trading signal evaluating a possible sale entry with target in the 14500 area.
In case of a bullish breakout of the resistance, and of the EMA21, we could have a more uncertain and lateral movement which might also push the price of the Dow back to the upper level 15400.
Macroeconomics news
Today’s calendar showed no important market movers with the exception of the durable goods orders in the U.S. at -7,3% below the forecast.
The UK market has been closed for the Bank Holiday and the major stock markets had a contrasted session with a very negative session for Milan due to the concern for a possible new government crisis.
Analyzing the Forex Market we can see the weakness of the euro and the pound, the uncertainty of the dollar and the bearish rebound of the US oil.
Tomorrow we will have two important data about the confidence: the one concerning German enterprises (IFO) and the consumers’ confidence in United States.
Maurizio Orsinic
This week has been very quiet from the macroeconomic point of view, always waiting for the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve over the beginning of the reduction of bond purchase plan.
The economic calendar next week will be much more intense and will gather the most important market movers of the Forex market.
You can watch everything in this weekly video, exceptionally realized on Wednesday!
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
P.S: I will resume my Forex analysis articles next Monday September 16.
Daily analysis of the Forex market, Aud-Nzd daily chart
Aud-Nzd: in laterality since a couple of months, the price has just broken the moving average on the daily chart (although the weekly one is below the EMA21) and soon we could see it going back to the level of support 1.1250, a significant minimum of five years. In this area I would see a graphical down break with one of my short trading signals in order to have a confirmation of a possible bearish continuation of the downward movement started last March, where the laterality mentioned above could be seen as an accumulation phase. If so we could have an interesting target in the next support 1.09 resulted by the technical projection drawn in the chart.
Macroeconomics news
Today’s economic calendar presented two important monetary policy meetings by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. Mark Carney confirmed the expansive line of the British central bank which decided not to change the level of rates (0.50%) and also the asset purchase plan of 375 billion pounds per month; the economy is recovering and therefore should not be other monetary stimulus.
Obviously the most awaited market mover of the day was the FOMC meeting with Ben Bernanke’s speech to explain the rate decision (confirmed at 0.25%). The chief of the Fed stressed that it’s still not possible to set an exact date for changing the current monetary policy and every decision will be postponed to future meetings (due to fundamental data still to improve).
European stock indices began very positively this session to close around the parity, while American ones were stable until Bernanke’s speech and then rose with new tops for S&P.
Tomorrow we will know the GDP of New Zealand, the British retail sales, the jobless claims and existing home sales in the U.S., the interest rate decision in Switzerland.
Maurizio Orsini
Ottimo lavoro, Maurizio!
Tra parentesi: che programma usi per registrare i tuoi video dallo schermo del computer?
Ciao
Grazie, molto gentile.
Di programmi ne puoi trovare diversi gratis…dai una occhiata:Download programma per registrare video dal pc. !
Saluti e buon week end
Maurizio
During this week markets were really awaiting to know something more clear in relation to the U.S. monetary policy. The same operators were also forecasting a reduction (up to 10 billion dollars a month) in the asset purchase plan by the Federal Reserve that, on the contrary, surprised everyone by taking time due to fundamental data still not so positive to consider a change in the monetary stimulus. The reaction of the stock markets has been very strong, with a resumption of the “risk on”, new historical tops and a strong dollar sell off.
The economic situation is stable in Australia where the central bank highlighted a growth below the average of recent years, rising exports (especially iron), but also a slight rise in the unemployment and therefore the propensity to maintain an accommodative monetary attitude.
This type of policy might decrease gradually in England where the economic situation is picking up and, although rates won’t currently rise, there should not be taken other accommodative measures.
In the euro zone we still have the different situation between production /confidence (still rising in Germany) and the labor market with the unemployment still worrying.
No news from the Swiss national bank which confirmed the interest rate level unchanged, according to the forecasts.
You can watch all these aspects, the next week’s economic calendar and my “naked” charts in my usual weekly video!
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Having the weekly analysis is always helpful for the trader. My analysis for this was very much correct for GBP/USD and i reached the target, but for EUR/JPY am trapped with a bad trade.
Thanks Mauri for your posts, they are very helpful!
If your trade on EurJpy is shot, then don’t hurry, I believe that the current movement is a trap for bulls…
Daily analysis of the Forex market, Eur-Cad daily chart
Eur-Cad: the daily chart shows the special weakness of the Canadian dollar over the past two weeks that, against the euro, is confirming the medium term uptrend (bullish trendline from August 2012). The Eur-Cad price is above the moving average 21, both on the daily and weekly chart and above the 1,39 support area. The idea is to enter the upward movement, after this period of technical correction, looking for a long price action signal in the support area just mentioned above (or better in 1,37) and with a target in the important resistance area 1,43.
Macroeconomics news
The economic calendar today presented a session with medium expected volatility mainly characterized by manufacturing data in China, Germany, euro zone and United States.
China’s production continues to grow above the forecast and the previous data; otherwise USA, Germany and the euro zone highlighted a decline in the production below expectations.
We can also remember from Germany the clear electoral victory of Chancellor Merkel in yesterday’s election and therefore a continuation in German fiscal policy (but also European!) for the next four years.
Stock markets, after the correction of last Friday, continue their negative move especially in Europe after the production data.
In the Forex market we had a weak session for the euro, the dollar and a slight recovery for the precious metals.
Tomorrow we will know from Germany the usual IFO business confidence index, from Canada the retail sales and from North America the consumer confidence.
Maurizio Orsini
I would really like to see them check this through a simple equity markets update. Keep it up
Sorry, at the moment no stock market analysis, I’m specialized in currencies and commodities!
Thanks and have a nice trading!
Daily analysis of the Forex market, Usd-Chf daily chart
Usd-Chf: both the daily and the weekly chart show a bearish movement and a price below the moving average 21. Last week we had the breakout of the important 0.9030 support area and during these days Usd-Chf drew the typical technical correction that the market often realizes to retest the broken levels. The key level (now resistance) is still strong and Usd-Chf is forming a potential bearish candle that might push the pair to the next support area 0.8930, which is the target of a potential short trade.
Macroeconomics news
This day was characterized by a relatively quiet economic calendar, with a couple of market movers from the United States: the new home sales and the durable goods orders (both much better than the previous month and the forecast).
The European stock markets opened slightly negative, influenced by Asian indices, and continued that way for all the session with the exception of Madrid closing with a +0,80%.
The Forex market analysis highlights a session of weakness for Usd and Yen, of recovery for the commodity currencies, of strength for the euro.
Tomorrow we will know the GDP data for the U.S. and the UK and the U.S. jobless claims.
Maurizio Orsini
The economic calendar for the current week showed no high significant macroeconomic news (monetary policy meetings or central banks’Minutes) but a series of regular monthly data on production and market sentiment that didn’t change the equilibrium between currencies.
China continues its manufacturing growth, unlike Europe and the U.S. which also had a decline in the confidence (German IFO and U.S. confidence went down last Tuesday).
The Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom was slightly lower than expected (although in an optimistic scenario considered by the Bank of England) as well as the American GDP that didn’t change respect the previous month.
In my weekly video I analyze the main market movers for the next week and some of the trading opportunities we could evaluate in the simple and disciplined analysis of my naked charts!
Regards
Maurizio Orsini