Eur-Usd, monthly Price Action chart
Eur-Usd: the daily and weekly chart of the main forex pair shows a medium term upward movement, with the price well above the moving average. Although without linearity and continuity, we had an upward trend in the last eight months, which generated an appreciation of the euro against the dollar of 1000 pips from the level of 1.28 of last July to the current 1.38. This area is very important for the Eur-Usd not only because it has been proven several times in recent years, but also because we are in a relevant dynamic area: in the monthly time frame we can see as in level 1 38 is arriving the long term bearish trendline (started on July 2008). It will be important to evaluate the price action in this area to identify possible long entries to continue the short-term trend or, otherwise, the presence of short trading signals to resume the long-term movement and opening a selling position with a possible target in area 1.3150.
In this case the technical analysis is not helped by international news these days, considering the great uncertainty we are facing with the situation in Ukraine and the possible beginning of the Russian war. It would certainly be an exceptional event whose formalization or, hopefully, resolution will generate a very strong volatility in the Eur-Usd.
Economic Calendar
This week will be very intense, not only for the particularly important economic calendar but also, and above all, for the dangerous escalation of the Ukraine situation that would change the balance in the stock and currency market (and right today we had a sharp fall of the Russian ruble, the rise of the gold and a surprisingly increase in the Russian rate from 5.5% to 7%).
From the macroeconomic point of view we received today many manufacturing data (in China, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States): in China there was a decrease as forecasted, while in USA and Europe all results were positive and above the expectations (except Italy. We can also remember the non-manufacturing data from China and the US personal consumption (both rising).
The stock market was affected by the crisis in Ukraine and the possible conflict: Asian markets closed the first trading session of the month in decline and the two main Russian indices (MICEX and RTS) ended with a crash by 5% and 7%. Also the European markets had a very weak opening and a similar close. Weakness for US indices too.
In tomorrow’s economic the most important market mover will be the first of the four monetary policy meetings, in Australia, with the consensus of the analysts for a confirmation of the current level 2.50%.
Silver, daily Price Action chart
Silver: the strong upward trend we saw in February has lost some strength pushing down the price from $22.30 to $21. The situation, for the existing correlation, is very similar to the gold with the difference that for silver we arrived yet in the daily static support and in the dynamic one represented by the moving average 21. A good strategy would be to look precisely in this area for a strong long price action to resume the bullish movement that led to the break out of the EMA21 in the weekly time frame. Let’s pay attention, however, because right in this time frame the price is drawing a bearish candle (though, of course, we are only in the middle of the week!) and in the H4 time frame the Silver remains below the average and within a mini downtrend. So let’s consider only clear trading signals and preferably in the daily chart.
Economic Calendar
Earlier in this day we received the data on the gross domestic product of Australia that has not only confirmed the expectations, but also rose more than the forecast (0.8% in the fourth quarter). In Canada we had the second policy meeting of this week with the confirmation, by Governor Stephen Polloz, of the current level of interest rates at 1%. Today we also received positive data on PMI services in many geographic areas: China, Italy, France, Germany, the euro zone and the UK (all better than expected!). From Europe we also received the retail sales data (much higher than the forecast) and the gross domestic product (confirmed at 0,5%). From the U.S. we had the non-manufacturing data (worse than expected) and, in a few hours, the release of the Beige Book of the Federal Reserve, in preparation for the monetary meeting of next March 18.
Tokyo Stock Exchange closed again positive ( +1.20% ); the European opening has been slightly negative and closed contrasted (with good performance for Milan and Madrid); US indices are around the parity, at the present time.
Besides the attention to international news (Ukraine) that might affect the markets, tomorrow’s macroeconomic calendar especially highlights the two monetary policy meetings of the ECB and the Bank of England with the press conferences of their governors (no changes are expected in interest rates). Among the other major market movers we can remember the data on retail sales in Australia and the US jobless claims.
The week just ended could be, in my opinion, the most intense and volatile throughout the month of March as , in addition to many major market movers, we also had an “extra” volatility regarding the difficult situation in Ukraine.
The four policy meetings of the last days did not produce changes in the levels of interest rates which remain at 2.50% in Australia, 1% in Canada, 0.50% in the UK and 0.25% in the euro area. Even regarding the “forward guidance” we had no important change, with the confirmation by Mark Carney of the asset purchase (£375 billion per month) and the continuation of the current policy by the ECB to achieve the economic growth and the price stability.
The week is ending with a series of data on the labor market: in Switzerland, Canada and, especially, in the United States with the release of the Non Farm Payrolls and the usual volatility they generate.
In the weekly video of this Friday I analyze some interesting pairs (Eur-Aud, Usd-Chf, Usoil) and the situation of my trades!
Eur-Gbp, daily Price Action chart
Eur-Gbp: certainly it’s not a pair that shows, in the last period, a very clear and straight directionality however the medium-term trend remains bearish (even in the weekly time frame the price’s moving below or in line with the moving average) also due to a fundamental situation that rewards the growth and the improvement of the UK economy. In the short term Eur-Gbp showed a strong recovery that took the pair up to the 0.8320 resistance area, which is important alsoin a dynamic point of view by the arrival of the long term trendline. A possible strategy might be to look for a long trading signal right in this level to resume the short move with a target on the 0.8160 support area. On the contrary, a potential bullish break out (as it’s happening right today) might lead to the opening of long positions with a price target on the next resistance 0.8460.
Economic Calendar
After a week of high volatility and still waiting for further developments in the Ukraine situation, we should have a more “quiet” days, useful to confirm the last movements we saw in the Forex market. Today we received some data from Japan, especially the gross domestic product which grew in the fourth quarter (0.2%) as expected, but less than the previous release; the retail sales in Switzerland, dropped; the investors’ confidence in the euro area, just below the forecast.
The week began negatively for the Asian stock markets with the Japanese index losing 1%; European indices opened positively but turned into negative also considering the weakness of Wall Strret.
Tomorrow’s economic calendar will present, as major market movers, the monetary policy meeting in Japan and the governor’s press conference Kuroda; the economic confidence in Australia; the industrial and manufacturing production in the UK as well as its GDP estimate.
Aud-Nzd, daily Price Action chart
Aud-Nzd: as I mentioned in one of my previous posts and after touching the moving average, the price resumed its downward movement that is pushing this pair down to 1,05. The technical situation shows a well defined medium term downtrend but since the end of last year Aud-Nzd is moving in a sideways range still difficult to break. Therefore it will be interesting to evaluate the price action right in the support just mentioned, because a clear long trading signal might be traded to see a return of the price up to the top of this range (1.09) and this outlook is even more interesting considering the approaching to the historic low level of Aud-Nzd on 1,0440.
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar today started with a couple of data on consumer confidence in Australia (rising) and Japan (lower than expected).
From the euro area the industrial production grew to 2,1% above the forecast.
The main market mover is the monetary policy meeting to be held within a few hours in New Zealand with analysts that are forecasting a rise in interest rates to 2.75% (pay attention to the volatility of this currency).
The Asian stock markets closed very negative, with Tokyo falling 2.60%; after a contrasted opening also the European stocks turned down and US indices too are negative at the moment.
Tomorrow we will receive the inflation expectations and the labor market data in Australia; the industrial production and retail sales in China; the ECB monthly report; the retail sales and jobless claims in the U.S.; the manufacturing index in New Zealand.
This week was definitely less volatile, compared to the previous one, but with interesting situations to comment.
In the monetary policy meeting held in Japan Mr. Kuroda confirmed both the interest rate as the monetary base in a climate of “waiting” which is generating a slight appreciation of the Japanese yen and a slowdown of the positive effects of April 2013’s quantitative easing.
In the second monetary meeting, in New Zealand, chairman Mr. Wheeler (as expected) decided to raise rates to 2.75%, confirming the growth of the domestic economy and, perhaps, opening the way for restrictive measures also in other geographic areas (Australia?).
Right about the Australian dollar, we should pay attention to the contraction of the Chinese economy (industrial production and retail sales down) because, considering the strong correlation, it could affect the Australian exports and reduce the positive impact of the good economic data arrived in recent days.
In the weekly video of this Friday I analyze the charts of Aud-Nzd, Eur-Usd, Gbp-Yen and the precious metals.
Aud-Nzd, daily Price Action chart
Aud-Nzd: as we have seen in other articles, the pair is in a medium and long term downtrend that, however, is approaching a very interesting area of support. The 1,0430 level is indeed a historic low (not tested in the last 9 years) and for this reason, although the situation is more bearish than bullish, it could be very interesting to find a clear long price action signal just in that area of support or even in the higher level 1,0530 (perhaps similar to the Pin candle we had at the end of January). The strategy would be to take advantage of a return of the buyers with a short-term target in the first resistance level 1,0730 and then, possibly, a return to the top of the medium term range at 1,09.
Economic Calendar
Today we will receive different important market movers: from Japan a speech by the central bank’s governor Mr. Kuroda; from the UK the release of the Minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting (unanimously confirmation of the rates level and asset purchase) and data on the labor market which showed a steady unemployment at 7,2% but a decrease of the employment (lower than expected) and a rise in the jobless claims (another negative data). In a few hours we will also have the gross domestic product of New Zealand and, more importantly, the conclusion of the monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve with the interest rate decision and the communication of tapering level by chairwoman Janet Yellen.
After the referendum in Crimea and its official annexation by Russia, the main stock market indices are moving around the parity (waiting for Fed’s decision).
Tomorrow’s economic calendar will show the second policy meeting of this week, in Switzerland, where no change is expected. Other data will come from the United States: the jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Index and the Leading Indicators.
The news from Crimea regarding the referendum of last Sunday and the annexation by Russia had no impact on the markets which, on the contrary, had a very positive first part of the week. If Ukraine “failed”, the Federal Reserve “succeeded” considering that the new asset purchase cut generated a strong dollar buying and a drop in the stock indices.
Besides Fed’s decision, we also had a monetary policy meeting in Switzerland, with the confirmation by the SNB of the interest rates and the “floor” in the minimum exchange rate against the euro (1.20) that will be kept even with an unlimited purchase of Euros considering the still high value of the frank.
In my video analysis of this Friday I show you the situation of some interesting opportunities of trading for the next week!
Eur-Usd, daily Price Action chart
Eur-Usd: the weekly chart still looks bullish, with the price above the EMA21, however both the four-hour time frame as the daily are moving downward, below the moving average and the major resistance1.3820, also highlighting the break out of the short term uptrend line The strategy could be to find a price action set up in the H4 time frame (in order to get a better risk/reward ratio) or also evaluate a trading signal on the daily chart, confirmed by a bearish break out of area 1.3750 to open a short position with a first target on 1.3650 and then, possibly, in 1.3480 area.
Economic Calendar
The last week of March began with a series of manufacturing data with different results: from China, Germany and USA there was a fall, below analysts’ expectations, while in the euro area we had the confirmation of the forecasts. From Germany and the euro area we also receive the PMI services below the expectations in the first case and confirming them in the euro zone.
Asian indices closed positively the first session of the week with a good performance for Tokyo and Hong Kong. The European opening has been rather weak as the following hours. Also the US indices are negative at the moment.
Tomorrow’s economic calendar will show the usual German IFO index, the British inflation and the consumer confidence in the U.S.
The current week has not presented very interesting news: no monetary policy meetings, market movers of normal volatility, contrasted stock indices in a lateral phase, no international news of special note.
The beginning of April will be certainly more interesting (and volatile) with the meeting of the Australian central bank (will they increase the rates as in New Zealand?) and the ECB, with the usual press conference by chairman Mario Draghi. Next week we will also have the release of the monthly U.S. labor market data, the Non Farm Payrolls, on the contrary we will not have this time the rate decision in the UK (usually the first Thursday of each month together with the ECB) which has been scheduled for April 10.
In the video that I just prepared this Friday let’s analyze together some interesting pairs (Aud-Usd, Eur-Cad, Usd-Yen, Oro) and my trades at market (USOil, Aud-Chf, Eur-Aud, Gbp-Aud)!
Dow Jones, daily Price Action chart
Dow Jones: the upward momentum of the major stock indices is continuing and it doesn’t seem to be affected by all international news, especially related to the situation in Ukraine. In specific, the two main U.S. indices just returned in historic high levels and we could also prepare for possible new sale entries.
The Dow Jones had an upward movement in early February, after the technical/emotional correction of March, that pushed it up to the resistance 16,550. This key level was already reached in late 2013, then re-tested in late January, and then a bearish reaction followed. This situation leads me to consider a potential short entry with a target on the support area 16,150, but only in the presence of a clear price action set up that will show me a decreased in the strength of the buyers. In fact the resistance, even very important, could also be broken to achieve new highs (about 16,950) as the Dow Jones (and the S & P ) already did in last November at 15,700 and in half December at 16,150!
Economic Calendar
After the intense day we had yesterday with several manufacturing data, the unemployment in Europe and the monetary policy meeting in Australia, today we had a much quieter session in a macroeconomic point of view. The economic calendar showed no high volatility market movers but, among the medium importance ones, we received the data on the U.S. ADP employment change (rising but less than expected), considered an “advance” of the most important Non Farm Payrolls of next Friday.
Asian markets ended a positive session and also the European opening was bullish even they turned down especially after Wall Street flat opening.
The most awaited news of tomorrow is definitely the monetary meeting of the ECB and the press conference of its chairman Mario Draghi, to see if there will be new and clear expansionary measures to face the risk of deflation. The session characterized by many other market movers like the PMI services from Japan, China, Euro zone and UK; the trade balance and retail sales in Australia; the jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing from the United States.
During this week we had two monetary policy meetings, but especially the second one (in the euro zone) was the most awaited by the market.
The meeting of the Central Bank of Australia confirmed the monetary scenario that analysts were expecting; on the contrary, there was a climate of great expectation on Mario Draghi 's decision due to the downtrend of the inflation in the euro area and the danger of a deflation as happened years ago in Japan. The final decision of the European Central Bank was to confirm both the level of rates as the monetary forward guidance considering the inflation still under control. Anyway, the ECB will also consider the future use of “unconventional measures” (quantitative easing) to ensure the price stability.
Other major market movers are expected today from the United States with the publication of the monthly labor market data (with consequent high volatility for the dollar and the stock indices).
In today’s video I show you the trades in my real account and some nice trading opportunities!
USOil, daily Price Action chart
USOil: after a correction movement, which took place in early March, the WTI has begun a gradual climb that pushed it back above the psychological level $100, confirming the upward move showed by the bullish trendline of earlier this year and tested several times in recent weeks. After the fall of April 1st (due to concerns about a lower Chinese demand as a consequence of the manufacturing decrease) the USOil began to recover, also considering the fears of new problems in Ukraine, and is trading at the moment above the moving average 21 both on the H4 chart as in the daily and weekly one. In the latter time frame we also have an interesting technical situation with the bullish Pin candle Pin of three weeks ago confirmed by the two following weekly candles realizing a false bullish breakouts. The price seems ready to reach and exceed the key area $104 and a long price action opportunity could be found in the support $101.60 if the USOil would rebound in that area; otherwise we will evaluate what will happen in the 6-month top level in order to choose the better trading strategy.
Economic Calendar
Among today’s major market movers we can remember the monthly report of the Bank of Japan, the consumer confidence in Australia (upwards) , the trade balance in Germany (worse than expected) and United Kingdom (rising), even the most awaited event of this Wednesday will take place within few hours from the United States with the release of FOMC’s Minutes about the latest monetary policy meeting of last March 18.
Today we had another session of heavy selling on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which lost more than 2%, in a contrasted session for the Asian markets. We had a moderately positive opening for Europe that, at the moment, is continuing the intraday upward move.
The economic calendar tomorrow will be very intense and will present as major market mover, the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England: analysts do not expect any changes on the level of interest rates and asset purchase. Among the other important news of the day we will receive the data on manufacturing output in New Zealand; inflation and labor market data in Australia; China’s trade balance; ECB’s monthly report; U.S jobless claims.
In recent days we received the confirmation by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England of the current monetary policy confirming their interest rates (0.10% and 0.50%) as well as the Japanese monetary base and the level of UK’s asset purchase.
From the United States the minutes of the last Fed’s monetary policy meeting showed an improvement in the labor market (also confirmed by yesterday’s jobless claims) and a weakness in the economy in the first part of the year, mainly due to the difficult weather conditions that affected the U.S.A in recent months.
From Australia we received positive data on the labor market, with the unemployment surprisingly falling against analyst expectations.
Next week we will pay attention to the inflation in the euro area, the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Canada and the sharp decline in liquidity we will have next Friday due to the closure of many stock markets (Good Friday).
I leave you with the usual weekly video to analyze my trades at market and some trading opportunities for the next days!
Usd-Cad, daily Price Action chart
Usd-Cad: the weakness of the Canadian dollar in the last period allowed a recovery of the USD after touching the 3-months low level 1,0850 last week. The graphical situation the Loonie is developing is very interesting because despite a still bearish daily scenario (the price still below the EMA 21) we have the H4 time frame turning upward and, above all, a weekly chart showing a clear buying opportunity. The price has actually drawn a bullish weekly pin candle (that I traded last week and currently with no risk) with a false breakout of all the support area 1,09 and the EMA21, with the possibility to see the Usd-Cad returning to the 1,12 resistance area in the short/medium term. In this sense, the upward break of 1,1030 level (violation of the intermediate resistance and the moving average in the daily chart) might represent an interesting opportunity for long entries just confirming the weekly scenario.
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar shows a very intense day with the monetary policy meeting in Canada (no changes expected) and, from the U.S., the industrial and manufacturing production and the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Meanwhile we received: data on inflation in New Zealand (unexpected fall) and in the euro area (confirmed at 0,5%); the GDP, industrial production and retail sales in China (all positive except the industrial output falling a little bit); data on the labor market in the UK (strong rise of the employment and fall of the unemployment) ; the Japan’s industrial output (recovering).
In Japan there was a strong correction of the Nikkei index which closed with a +3%; also the European markets opening has been positive due to good Chinese GDP data.
Tomorrow’s main market movers will be the consumer confidence in Japan, the inflation in Canada, the Philadelphia Fed index and the U.S. jobless claims.
Usd-Cad, daily Price Action chart
Usd-Cad: despite the weakness of the US dollar, the Loonie continues to show a more bullish outlook, primarily due to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar in recent sessions. The weekly time frame shows how the last bullish candle confirmed the Pin bar of two weeks ago (with false break out of the moving average and the support area 1,09) generating a very interesting situation to see the continuation of the medium term uptrend to the resistance zone. In the daily chart it would be important to see the violation of the 1,1050 intermediate area to end the very short term accumulation phase (ascending triangle) pushing Usd-Cad toward the target in 1,12 resistance.
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar has presented us several interesting market movers starting with the surprising inflation in Australia which rose but well below expectations, generating a very strong sell off movement of AUD. We received many manufacturing today: from China, Germany and the euro zone (positive) and the United States. From the UK we had the publication of the Bank of England’s Minutes while, at the end of the day, we will have in New Zealand the monetary policy meeting with the potential decision of a new rate increase to 3%.
The Nikkei index rebounded today closing above 1%. European shares opened flat.
Tomorrow we will receive all medium importance market movers among which we mention the trade balance in Switzerland, the German IFO index, the durable goods orders and jobless claims from the USA.
Eur-Usd, daily Price Action chart
Eur-Usd: the daily chart of the Eur-Usd highlights a “not very clear” phase in which the price anyway succeeds in quoting above the support zone 1.38/1.3820, with an upward gap in yesterday’s opening and an attempt of correction (denied) just above the moving average 21. In correlation with the current bearish movement of the Dollar Index, the main Forex’s currency pair is confirming the weekly positive scenario with a very short term trend that seems well prepared to push again the price up to the last 30-month top level 1.3940. In line with this situation we could find, even in the H4 chart, a long trading signal (perhaps awaiting a technical correction in the intermediate support level 1.3850) to enter this potential upward movement to the aforementioned resistance.
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar of this last Monday of April highlights only medium importance news as the Japanese retail sales (rising as expected) and the existing homes sale in the United States.
After the new tensions in Ukraine and the strong sales of last Friday, the Nikkei index closed the first session of the week downward (-1%), while European stocks opened moderately positive.
The main market movers of tomorrow will be the British gross domestic product, the inflation in Germany and the consumer confidence in the euro area and the United States. Tokyo stock exchange will be closed for the Showa day.
