The first week of June, as I wrote a few days ago, has been characterized by a high volatility and many important market movers. We had four monetary policy meetings: in Australia, Canada and the UK (all unchanged) and especially in the euro area with Mario Draghi who cut the interest rate by 10 basis points at 0,15% and is considering extraordinary measures to face the low inflation.
The week will end in a few hours with one of the most relevant data, the US Non Farm Payrolls.
The next economic calendar will show us, among the main news, the rate decision in New Zealand; the labor market data and the GDP in the United Kingdom.
I have prepared the usual weekly video to analyze some interesting trading opportunities and to show you the precise close of the Eur-Usd short trade realized yesterday.
[video=youtube_share;emWnVnF1Sag]http://youtu.be/emWnVnF1Sag[/video]
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Gold, daily Price Action chart
Gold: after the sharp fall in late May, with the price of the yellow metal reaching the 2014’s low at $1.240, the gold is consolidating within a short term range whose first resistance is level $1.260. Both the daily chart as the weekly are moving downward and with the price below the moving average 21 so that, at the present time, the short-term purpose is to search in the just mentioned level (or even better in zone $1.270) a trading signal to enter a possible continuation of the bearish movement that would have its target in the next support zone $1.210/1200. This price area would be, in that case, very interesting to evaluate new long price action opportunities in order to resume the upward long-term trend of the gold for a potential return in area $ 1400 in the medium term.
Maurizio Orsini
Aud-Yen, daily Price Action chart
Aud-Yen: despite this period of relative strength of the yen, which has pushed some pair to support levels (Eur-Yen among all), the Australian dollar is stronger and showing a clear upward trend in the long term. Even the daily chart, after the 3-month low touched in May, shows a short-term bullish trend, with the price above the moving average and getting closer to the important static area 96,30. As I always do near a level of resistance, I will look for bearish trading signals first, in order to find a sales opportunity with target in the support zone 94. If, on the contrary, the long-term movement will continue generating a bullish breakout I would look for a long price action set-up with an initial target in the resistance level 97,20.
Maurizio Orsini
Good analysis, I can see bearish trading signal.
The week ending today has been characterized by the expected increase in the interest rates in New Zealand (by 25 basis points to 3.25%) creating a strong wave of purchases in this currency.
Among the other relevant data we can mention those on the labor market: excellent in the UK (lower unemployment and employment above expectations); not so good in Australia (stable unemployment and falling employment); negative in the United States with an increase in the jobless claims.
For the next week we can point out several inflation data (Europe, USA, UK and Canada) and especially the monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve with the decision on interest rates and tapering.
[video=youtube_share;JMi4oglFWX0]http://youtu.be/JMi4oglFWX0[/video]
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Dax 30, daily Price Action chart.
Dax 30: after touching new highs above 10.000 points last week, the CFD of the German stock index is in a bearish phase of technical correction within a larger bullish move that characterizes the main stock indices of the world. In the very short term the German Dax shows a laterality that allowed the moving average 21 approaching the current price and the area of support 9.875 (the price is above the EMA 21 also in the weekly time frame).
Let’s consider possible long trading signals (also in the 4 hours chart) because all this static and dynamic area could be favorable for a new upward movement of the index to the previous highs at 10.025 and possibly to the new target at 10.190 . In case of a bearish break-out we would still have the possibility to check the presence of a long price action set-up in the next support area 9.800 points, even more interesting considering the “weekly” point of view.
Maurizio Orsini
US Oil, daily Price Action chart.
US Oil: the medium-term uncertainty and variability, evident in the weekly time frame, finally found a clearer direction after the bullish break-out of area $105 occurred last week. After three tests of the key level, the price has drawn a bullish Marubozu candle which strongly broke the resistance and almost closing at $107. The US Oil in recent sessions is confirming this break-out and the short-term uptrend (with a price above the moving average in both the daily and weekly time frames) and started a technical correction that might give us the opportunity to find a long trading signal in the intermediate support $106 or, better yet, in the previous key level $105. In both cases, the target of a long entry would be the next level of resistance $110.
Attention today to the automatic closing of the oil positions due to the date of monthly technical expiration of this Cfd!
Maurizio Orsini
Hello everyone!
Here you can post only about forex, or stock market analisys also?
The current week has been characterized by two monetary policy meetings (without any changes) in Switzerland and in the United States. La Swiss National Bank has kept its interest rates unchanged and also the so called “floor” against the euro, ie the minimum rate of Eur-Chf at 1,20. The Federal Reserve too has confirmed both the rates at 0.25% as the reduction of 10 billion dollars on the bond monthly purchases. In the following press conference Mrs. Janet Yellen (Fed’s governor) emphasized a positive outlook for the biennium 2015-2016 highlighting the continuation of the accommodative monetary policy to support the economic growth (the result was: a rising stock market and a strong US dollar sell-off!).
Next week we won’t have particularly relevant news: we can remember the U.S. and the UK gross domestic product and the inflation in Japan.
In my usual weekly video I show you a nice trade in the Gold, a free risk trade in the Eurostoxx cfd, a clear price action in the Cable and other interesting trading opportunities.
[video=youtube_share;AA3F5QVu3Nw]http://youtu.be/AA3F5QVu3Nw[/video]
Regards
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Cad, daily Price Action chart.
Eur-Cad: the weakness of the euro (due to Draghi’s accommodative outlook) and the strength of the Canadian dollar (excellent macroeconomic data last Friday) have facilitated the downward continuation of this pair that, after testing the key area 1,4720 by drawing a typical flag of technical analysis, is going down to the next price target in the support level 1,4430 (2014’s low).
If there will be a momentary upward correction we might consider a trading signal and a short entry in 1,4650 area (for those who are not yet on sale) with a target in the just mentioned support, which is also the technical target of the continuation flag. On the contrary, in case of a bearish move of Eur-Cad, without any trading signal, we would wait for a direct arrival of the price in the support zone to consider a possible long and counter trend price action set up.
Maurizio Orsini
The current week is more difficult for the stock market but we see more weakness in Europe and a better situation for Wall Street.
The economic calendar presents many U.S. data, including a gross domestic product that dropped sharply below expectations.
This time the video analysis is published beforehand however let’s see some interesting trading situations as well as my positions at market.
[video=youtube_share;9EcSpSaJEMY]http://youtu.be/9EcSpSaJEMY[/video]
Have a nice day and I’ll be back with my analysis in the middle of July!
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Cad, daily Price Action chart.
Eur-Cad: after a period of rest I resume my analysis starting with the last daily article I made, just about this pair. I wrote that Eur-Cad, within a clear downward trend, could continue its movement down to 2014 low area 1,4440; this level has been reached in early July (as well as the take profit level of the short trade I had at market).
Eur-Cad then started a movement of correction relatively weak and similar to a short-term laterality that, however, continues to show a bearish outlook. For this reason we will go on looking for bearish price action signals in the static and dynamic area 1,47/1,4740 (the moving average 21 is coming down in the weekly time frame in addition to the bearish trendline); alternatively we might also consider trading set-ups in the intermediate resistance 1,4640.
Maurizio Orsini
This week we had two monetary policy meetings, in Japan and Canada, with the confirmation of the current accommodative measures.
Very positive economic data came from the United Kingdom with an increase in inflation in line with the target and a drop in unemployment to its lowest level since October 2008.
I leave you with the usual weekly video to analyze the best trading opportunities for the next days!
[video=youtube_share;BfwomInzvhg]http://youtu.be/BfwomInzvhg[/video]
Have a nice week-end.
Maurizio Orsini
The current week has been characterized by the monetary policy meeting held in New Zealand with the increase (expected) of the interest rates to 3.50%. However, unlike last month, we did not see a strong NZD purchase but exactly the opposite movement due to the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to momentarily interrupt this restrictive phase.
The focus of the next economic calendar will be on United States with the FOMC’s meeting and the rate decision next Wednesday and the usual release of the Non Farm Payrolls next August the 1st.
I leave you with my weekly video!
[video=youtube_share;C5CKuPl6Q68]http://youtu.be/C5CKuPl6Q68[/video]
Have a nice week-end.
Maurizio Orsini
Silver, daily Price Action chart.
Silver: the situation of the precious metals is certainly not the easy to analyze, considering the confused phase we had in recent weeks, despite this the daily chart of silver seems to be clearer than the gold one and it could show interesting trading opportunities. After the sharp rise of June, with a maximum at $21,50, there was a new down move generating the break-out of the moving average and of the support zone $20,50. The silver is currently within this very short term bearish trend and we might look for short trading signals in the level just mentioned (which is now a resistance) to evaluate a sale entry with a target in area $19. With a “prudent” strategy we can also wait for the break-out of area $20,20 that would represents the violation of the EMA21 in the weekly time frame.
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Cad, daily Price Action chart.
Eur-Cad: after the downward movement, evident in the daily chart, the pair is not confirming the dynamic resistance area 1,4630 (bearish trendline) and appears to be ready to move up. The price drew a pattern of double inside candle (not perfect but valid) whose violation could push Eur-Cad up to the next key level 1,4790 and possibly up to 1,49; this potential upward move might be “confirmed” by the monthly time frame above the moving average with a more bullish outlook (the weekly t.f. is still moving below the EMA21 and this would suggest prudence, especially in area 1,48) .
Anyway, the short-term is bullish and so we could evaluate the current trading signal of inside candle to open a long position.
Maurizio Orsini
The current week has been characterized by four monetary policy meetings with a general confirmation of the economic measures. Australia’s central bank has confirmed the interest rate at 2.50%, and its view is to maintain this level for a long period of time in order to support the recovery avoiding the appreciation of the domestic currency. Also the Bank of England and the ECB, as expected, did not change their rates (0.50% and 0.15%), and decided to go on with the current monetary guidance. The last meeting of the week took place a few hour ago in Japan without any change by Governor Kuroda.
I prepared my usual weekly video to show you the trading opportunities for the next days.
[video=youtube_share;OCUzVKsdVAM]http://youtu.be/OCUzVKsdVAM[/video]
Have a nice week-end.
Maurizio Orsini
Usd-Cad, daily Price Action chart.
Usd-Cad: looking at the weekly chart we can see as the downward trend that has characterized the Loonie between late March and late June could be considered as a technical correction of the previous long-term uptrend (break-out of the bearish trendline and my three time frames to the upside!). If that was true, we could be facing a possible resumption of the upward movement that would make me prefer a more bullish operating strategy. The most interesting price level to find long trading signals could be 1.0940 (or even better 1,09) with a potential first target at 1.1040 and a second one at 1.1240.
Maurizio Orsini
The current week is showing expecially medium importance market movers with less volatility than the previous week.
Among the most significant data, we can certainly remember the labor market news in the UK which were below the forecast generating a sale pressure in the pound.
The weekly video is exceptionally realized on Thursday due to the Day of the Assumption of the Virgin Mary (tomorrow, holiday).
[video=youtube_share;KlQMBL7h1IY]http://youtu.be/KlQMBL7h1IY[/video]
Have a nice day!
Maurizio Orsini
Aud-Nzd, daily Price Action chart.
Aud-Nzd: the chart is showing a clear medium/long term laterality with the pair of Oceania moving, since the end of last year, within a range of about 500 pips. After reaching the 2014 top level 1,1030, Aud-Nzd depreciated considerably due to the buying wave of NZD (following the rate hike by the RBNZ) and then completely recovered arriving two times, between late July and early August, to the previous highs. We are currently in a very short term sideways range with the time frame H4, daily and weekly that are moving upward, so it could be very interesting to find a long trading signal in the resistance 1,1030 to evaluate a purchase. In this way, and after three attempts, it would also be possible to see a bullish break-out with the price that might reach the next key level in area 1,12; the same level would be particularly relevant because right in that zone of the chart, in the monthly time frame, the moving average would be arriving as a dynamic resistance.
Obviously the presence of a clear bearish price action signal in the resistance close to the current price would lead us to modify the operative strategy evaluating short entries for a potential return of Aud-Nzd to the 1,09 support level.
Maurizio Orsini
