Nasdaq 100, daily Price Action chart.
Nasdaq 100: the American stock indices continue to rise and the Nasdaq 100 appears to be more attractive to investors’ long positions. As for the S&P and the Dow Jones we saw a momentary downward trend, in late July, but within a short period laterality that soon changed into a bullish move with seven consecutive bullish candles. During this week the cfd of the Nasdaq index just broke the historic top level at 3900 points and shows enough strength to reach the next level in the key area 4100. A possible strategy to enter this uptrend would be to find a long trading signal in the support zone 3990, after a technical correction that might retest the broken resistance.
Maurizio Orsini
The current week showed no monetary policy meeting but the publication of two Minutes in Great Britain and the United States: in the first case we had, after three years, two members of the Bank of England voting for a rate hike; in the second case the Federal Reserve emphasized the improvement in the labor market, but not so strong to change the current approach to the interest rates.
Next week too will be characterized by “normal” market movers in particular concerning the German and Euro labor market, along with the inflation in the Euro zone.
Here is my usual weekly video!
[video=youtube_share;sx4-YoL9D0Y]http://youtu.be/sx4-YoL9D0Y[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Gbp-Usd, daily Price Action chart.
Gbp-Usd: the strong upward movement that had characterized the Cable since July 2013 has been interrupted in June’s top level 1,7160. The US dollar, in a sharp appreciation, generated a downward pressure that firstly caused the break-out of the support 1,6970 and the moving average 21 in the daily chart and secondly the violation of the important weekly support zone 1,6750 and the EMA21 in the same time frame. After this break-out, and in presence of a clear trading signal, I opened a short position in Gbp-Usd that could have a target in the next support zone 1,65, which also represents an important level in the weekly time frame and even in the monthly (with the average getting closer).
So we can look for a long signal in this support (but carefully because it would be a countertrend!) or even better we might evaluate a new break-out for a bearish continuation towards the key level 1,63 (I also might decide to move my take profit down trying to follow the price as long as possible).
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Cad, daily Price Action chart.
Eur-Cad: the phase of depreciation of the euro is very clear and it could increase further if, as many believe, Mr.Mario Draghi will finally adopt the “unconventional” measures to support price stability, as he already said many times. This monetary policy would probably lead to a continuation of the bearish move for many currency pairs and between them we can highlight Eur-Cad. We had a very nice short movement that characterized this pair from mid-March, (after the maximum of nearly five years in 1,5580), with the same pair breaking down the EMA21 and moving below it both in the daily as in the weekly time frame. The downward trend is very clear, although in the short term Eur-Cad is going through a phase of laterality that led to three times the support level 1,4430. Yesterday Eur-Cad drew a clear short trading signal in this area and, at the present time, it’s breaking this level with the possibility to continue the downward trend to the next major area of weekly support at 1,41.
Maurizio Orsini
The meeting of last Friday in Jackson Hole showed, after the speeches of the major central banks’ chairmen, the outlook of an increase in interest rates in the United States (mid 2015?) and an exactly contrary outlook for the European Central Bank. As a matter of fact Mr.Mario Draghi has confirmed the availability to take “unconventional” measures to face the deflation and such measures could be taken even in the next monetary meeting, also due to the slowdown of Germany (decline in GDP, IFO index and consumer confidence).
From the United States we received very important market movers who were almost all better than expected: PMI services, gross domestic product, jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, personal consumption).
Let’s see together my trades at market along with some valid trading opportunities for the next few days!
[video=youtube_share;pJtdBHTGu2E]http://youtu.be/pJtdBHTGu2E[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Usd-Chf, daily Price Action chart.
Usd-Chf: as the correlated Eur-Usd closed the bearish gap but failed in returning above 1,3220 area, in the same way Usd-Chf closed the bullish gap of last week without reaching, at the present time, the area 0,91. The three time periods that I usually work with show a bullish outlook, above the moving average 21, and highlight a possible continuation of the upward trend both in relation to macroeconomic reasons (excellent American data and potential start of ECB’s quantitative easing) and in relation to the technical reasons mentioned above as to the monthly chart showing a candle (in August) with a false breakout of the moving average and movement to the upside. Those who still have no long positions can evaluate an entry if the bullish break-out of the very short term laterality will be confirmed or waiting for a new correction to the downside to buy at a better price, always with a first target at 0,9230 and then on 0,9450 area.
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Usd, daily Price Action chart.
Eur-Usd: the daily chart of the main Forex pair shows a very clear downtrend “closed” within a bearish channel that has pushed down the Eur-Usd from the 2-year top of last May 1,40 to the current support level 1,3120 (floor of the last 12 months). The price is moving below the moving average both in the daily and weekly time frame and, after having closed the gap of last week, is now accumulating above the just mentioned support. In recent days, the euro appears in small recovery although it is less evident due to the stronger US dollar. Undoubtedly the most advisable strategy is to enter this downtrend looking for a short trading signal possibly in the level 1,32 although we could also evaluate a break-out of the zone 1,31.
Tomorrow we will have the very important monetary meeting of the ECB and the potential new accommodative measures by Mario Draghi that could facilitate the depreciation of the euro and therefore a more rapid fall of the Eur-Usd firstly to the 1,30 level and then to the area of weekly support 1,2750.
Maurizio Orsini
As always, the first week of the month has been characterized by important market movers that generated high volatility in the market, among them we can remember four monetary policy meetings and the US labor market monthly data.
In Australia we had the confirmation of the interest rates at 2.50% as well as in Canada where Governor Stephen Poloz kept the rates unchanged at 1%. In the UK too the monetary guidance has been confirmed in terms of monthly asset purchase and interest rate at 0.50%; we will see in a couple of weeks (with the Minute) which have been the specific positions of the members of the BoE’s board.
Yesterday there was a great expectation for the ECB meeting, in order to see new accommodative measures and, as a matter of fact, Mario Draghi decided for a new rate cut by 10 basis points to 0.05% (historic low) and the ABS purchase plan from next October.
I prepared the usual weekly video with some trading opportunities for the next days and the my trades of this week.
[video=youtube_share;aohZoBsj3Ks]http://youtu.be/aohZoBsj3Ks[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Aud-Yen, Price Action daily chart.
Aud-Yen: After the break-out of the medium term laterality’s top level at 96,40 (12-month maximum) the pair continued the upward movement, very clear and precise, up to the top area of May 2013 at 98,70. Aud-Yen is currently in a phase of technical correction that could give us the opportunity to enter the trend at a better price. Let’s look for a long trading signal in the intermediate support 97,20 (the EMA21 is arriving as a dynamic support in the daily time frame) or in the area of the former resistance 96,40 in case of a new test of the previous laterality (this latter solution would be more interesting in a"weekly" point of view).
Maurizio Orsini
Another week is ending with a relatively quiet economic calendar that showed only one monetary policy meeting and many medium importance data. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand confirmed its guidance keeping its rates unchanged at 3.50%. We had a positive situation in the Australian labor market, with a surprise decline in unemployment; not so positive the situation of the US jobless claims, to the upside this week. There are still tension on the pound because of the upcoming referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom.
For the next week we can emphasize the monetary meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Swiss central bank (which may even lower its rates into negative as a “response” to the accommodative policy of Mario Draghi).
Here you have my usual weekly video!
[video=youtube_share;zUyyJl_F8JQ]http://youtu.be/zUyyJl_F8JQ[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Among all the news and market movers we received this week we can especially highlight: the referendum in Scotland, the Fed’s meeting, the beginning of the ECB’s TLTRO.
Yesterday we had the Scottish referendum with the final decision to remain in the United Kingdom (so everything unchanged) with great benefit to the pound and the British government.
In the United States we saw, at conclusion of the Fed’s, a further cut in the asset purchase plan as the confirmation of the rates at 0.25% which will remain stable for a "considerable period time ".
In the euro area Mr.Mario Draghi began the first of 11 refinancing operations to 255 European banks that, supposedly, should direct these funds to the private sector (families and firms), let’s see in the next months which will be the real effects in the economy.
Here you have my usual weekly video!
[video=youtube_share;A02ohjDu3DQ]http://youtu.be/A02ohjDu3DQ[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Aud-Nzd, Price Action daily chart.
Aud-Nzd: The upward rise of the Australian dollar had a relatively short duration! After the start of the uptrend in mid-July, the violation of important weekly laterality (1,1030) and the achievement of the 12-month high 1,13 area it started a movement that could appear only a technical correction but on the contrary generated a new change in the short term trend. Due to the meeting of the Bank of New Zealand (but also to the period of great weakness of the Australian currency) the pair of Oceania continued its downward movement breaking back the moving average 21 and, especially, confirming below the key level 1,1030 in the last weekly close. Although the only doubt might come from the weekly chart (still slightly bullish) the outlook in the short term but also in the long term (looking at the monthly time frame with a short flag in formation) seem much more bearish and so I would like to see on the level mentioned above, after a technical retracement, a short trading signal to enter the downward trend with a first target in the support area 1,09.
Maurizio Orsini
Another week is over and it was basically quiet with an economic calendar that showed a not so positive German IFO index and a better than expected US jobless claims (emphasizing a better position in the labor market).
We saw a sharp fall of the New Zealand dollar, after the declaration of the RBNZ’s governor concerning the unjustified and unsustainable strength of the domestic currency and the need for its depreciation.
Next week will be particularly interesting because we will have the monetary meeting of the ECB (exceptionally in Naples - Italy) and the US Non Farm Payrolls.
[video=youtube_share;yl4cd8oEN_E]http://youtu.be/yl4cd8oEN_E[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
