Mr. Obama officially began his second term becoming the 44th President of the United States on the day that Wall Street was closed for Martin Luther King’s Day.
The lower liquidity and the negative data on industrial production in Germany (1.5% and lower than expected) has generated a flat session with positive values.
The Eurogroup meeting today will decide, among other things, the new chairman that will replace Mr.Junker (the current Dutch finance minister Mr. Joroen Dijsselbloem is expected to be elected). From Japan we will have tomorrow the decision on interest rate by the BoJ.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: continues its lateral move, amplified today by the lower liquidity in the market. However, we are close to the support 1.3280 with the EMA21 approaching the price. The idea is to look for a trading setup in the direction of the short term move, that is Long, with a first target on area 1.34. On the contrary, the breaking out of the level mentioned above could push the price to the next key area (static and dynamic) of 1.32 .
Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
as expected interest rates in Japan remained unchanged with an inflation target at 2% (to be reached as soon as possible). The BoJ confirmed the plan of asset purchase (13 thousand billion yen), but only since 2014. This delay of the quantitave easying led Yen to continue its strengthen and the bearish correction with many currency pairs.
Stock market closed a negatice session (except Milan) despite Zew index on german confidence which has been much better than expected.
Tomorrow we’ll have the interest rate decision in Canada.
ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: the pair retested again 90.10 resistance area but the news from Japan pushed it down. The medium and short remains bullish so I will look for the price to continue in the support area 88 or 87 to find a Long set up of my trading plan.
Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
in a quitely contrasted day for equity markets, we had from Canada the confirmation of interest rate at 1%.
Anyway the most interesting news came from UK with its Prime Minister Mr. Cameron confirming the referendum (before 2017) to establish the permanence or the exit of his country from EU and the Bank of England’s Minute. This one showed (with the unanimous maintenance of the rate at 0.50% and almost unanimously not to increase the purchase of assets) as for now there’s no possibility for another quantitative easing, taking the pound to appreciate during this session.
I just prepared my video analysys with some interesting possible operations!
also today stock markets had a low volatility session just moving at the same levels as yesterday.
The good PMI manufacturing data of Germany and UE have favored the upward move of the Euro (initially weak) in a day characterized mainly by the new pressure of Japanese government to BoJ, for a stronger action to depreciate the Yen (also considering the recent and worst japanese export data). The effect was an obvious sell-off of this currency that I and the other Forex Friends have immediately evaluated yesterday (with the help of Price Action Daily as we saw in my video analysis) and realized with a couple of excellent trades still in profit.
ANALYSIS
Silver: after having approached, yesterday, the resistance area $32.50 the price rebounded also because of the strength of the USD. According to the short-term uptrend, I will wait for one of my trading signals in the $31.50 key level, or better yet, in area $ 31.
Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
we had another bullish day for equity market in this last session of the week. From Europe we had a good IFO data on German business confidence (better than expected) and, from England, the GDP of the third quarter of 2012 (worse than expected) showing a still weak British economy.
I prepared my usual weekly video to see the most important data of the economic calendar for next week and some interesting trading opportunities.
Have a nice week-end and see you next monday!
Maurizio Orsini
at the beginning of this last week of January stock markets have been moderately contrasted, waiting for the important Fed meeting (next Wednesday) to decide on interest rates.
In Forex market we had a technical correction for the euro and the yen, after the strong movements of the previous week, while precious metals and oil continue to be weak.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Aud: the medium term shows a possible bullish head and shoulder that could reach, after the breakout of level 1.30, a possible medium term target on 1.4250 which corresponds to the top level of August 2011. In the short term, we might also anticipate a buy entry in presence of a clear set up of my trading system on the support key level 1.28.
Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
we had another day without very important economic market movers (except a good consumer confidence index in Germany and the same one from Usa, lower than expected), a session with different directions for the major stock markets and a continuation of the technical correction of the Euro.
Tomorrow we will have the interest rate decision in New Zealand and, expecially, in the United States: beware the volatility.
ANALYSIS
Gbp/Usd: sterling finally had the strength to correct upwards (also taking advantage of the weakness of the USD). I’ll be looking for one of my trading signals in the area 1.5780 / 1.58 to catch the bearish movement with a target on the support level 1.55.
Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
stock markets moved down today with the U.S. indices always on top levels as well as the euro that, versus japanese yen, is coming to the top of three years ago.
No change in interest rate decisions with the Fed and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that kept rates at the current levels of 0.25% and 2.50%.
Tomorrow we expect from Germany the Unemployment Rate and the CPI and from U.S. the Jobless Claims data.
I just prepared my daily video analysis, enjoy it!
Investors ‘take profits continued today in stock markets which closed below the previous levels.
From Germany we had some positive data, relative to the decrease in January of unemployment and consumer price index, waiting to see tomorrow from the United States and the usual key market movers on the market of non-farm labor.
In Forex market we had a weak day for Euro and for the major commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil).
ANALYSIS
Oil WTI: the bullish trend is clear and evident with one or two correction candles in the different accumulation sessions. We could see a downward move to area $ 96.80/97 with the opportunity to evaluate a good long entry signal with a first target on level $99 and then $101.
Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
another week is over with a bullish session for stock markets and the usual volatility due to Non Farm Payrolls.
Now we prepare for next market opening with the important interest rate decisions in Australia, England and Europe.
New month, new goals and to the same interesting weekly Outllook to plan our job in Forex.
Good night and have a nice weekend.
Maurizio Orsini
today we had a decline in the PPI of the euro zone (-0.2% compared to the previous month in line with expectations). Bad news from spanish labor market with an increase in unemployment of 2.7% compared to the first month of the year and with a total number of nearly 5 million people without a job.
The stock markets closed a session characterized by profit-taking with heavy falls, especially for Milan and Madrid due to their difficult political situations.
Tomorrow we will have the interest rates decision in Australia with the RBA expected to keep the current level of 3% but…let’s pay attention to any bearish surprise!
ANALYSIS
Oil: the accumulation phase of WTI continues although it seems to reach the support area $ 95.50. A clear bullish signal would be interesting to try a new entry in the upward move with a first target level $ 99 and then $ 101.
Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
the australian interest rate did not change (it’s still at 3%) but there was an opening, by the RBA, to future cuts and this made Australian dollar very weak.
Pending the same decision of the ECB, on Thursday, we had negative data from the euro area with a sharp drop in retail sales in December (-3.4% vs 1.4% expected).
Stock markets tried to recover after yesterday’s crash, but are still weak and waiting.
Tomorrow we will not have significant market movers!
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: after testing the support level 1.3450 in intraday session, it reacts and moves just below 1.36. The confirmed break of this level could push this pair to the resistance level 1.37 and then at 1.3850 area.
Have a nice trading, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
as the previous month nothing changed in the “Europe” rate decisions. Mr.Mario Draghi has confirmed the euro zone rate at 0.75% announcing a continuation of the flexible monetary policy. The overall situation remains weak, with a possible recovery in the second half of the year and an inflation rate under control at 2%. The governor of the ECB has expressed no concern about the appreciation of the euro (mainly due to an increase in investors’confidence) and showed how the currency could affect price levels but, anyway, it’s not a political target of the ECB.
Even the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged (0.50%) as well as the asset purchase (375 billion pounds per month).
ANALYSIS
Eur/Gbp: the cross continues its technical correction approaching the support area 0.85. A clear Long signal of my trading method in this level (but even better in the weekly support area 0.84!) could be interesting to resume the current bullish movement with a first target in area 0.87 and a second one in the resistance level 0.89.
Enjoy your trading and see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
