Good evening,
another week is over with our trading in Forex, with several interest rate decisions and technical corrections for euro.
I prepared my weekly video analysis to see the economic situation and some opportunities for next week.
Thanks and have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
today we had no special market mover and stock markets have been rather weak. Euro and dollar recovered while precious metals continue their downward move.
Tomorrow we’ll be listening to three interesting speeches realized by the governors of the central banks of Switzerland, Canada and Europe.
ANALYSIS
Silver: another bearish candle for this metal that moves just above the support level $ 30.80 . A confirmed break out would be interesting to search for a pullback (with one of my trading signals) and going short with target $ 29.80 and then $ 29. On the contrary, a rebound in this support, with a clear and strong bullish signal, could represent a Long opportunity with a target area on $ 32.50.
Enjoy your trading and see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
stock markets closed this session with a slight rise and a good performance of the Spanish Ibex. The governor of the ECB Mr.Mario Draghi (in his meeting with the spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy) said that the euro appreciation is due to an increased confidence in the eurozone, that the currency is not a political target of the ECB and that, probably, some alarmist claims about the strength of the euro have been inapposite.
From Japan we had an improvement in consumer confidence, waiting for the GDP and the interest rate decision of tomorrow (expected unchanged at 0.10%). Tomorrow we will also have the data on U.S. retail sales and the speech of Mr.King, governor of the Bank of England.
ANALYSIS
Copper: we are in a short/medium term uptrend, in a retracement move close to an interesting support area ($ 3.71) where we could look for a long setup of my trading system with a first target on level $3.78 and then $3.84. In case of a bearish breakout we could find a better buying opportunity with a long signal in the weekly support level $3.55.
Thank you and see you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
today’s session was characterized by a particular weakness of the pound, after the Bank of England report, and a moderate rise for equity markets.
In a few hours we will focus on Japan with the GDP and the interest rate decision.
Let’s see all these macro news and the most interesting trading opportunities in my daily video analysis.
Enjoy it!
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
today we had a negative session for the principal stock markets, as well as for the euro, because of the negative data came from Germany and France (with a GDP lower than expected in the last quarter of 2012) and a third consecutive recession quarter in the euro area (-0.9% at the end of December 2012). The ECB monthly report was less negative highlighting the greater cohesion within the European markets and the best climate of confidence from firms and consumers, according to the available indicators.
Even in Japan there was a contraction in GDP with the Bank of Japan that decided to keep the interest rate at 0.10% (as expected) as well as the policy of assett purchase.
Tomorrow we will have the important market mover of the University of Michigan Confidence and the G20, with the finance ministers and central bank governors, to be held in Moscow.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Yen: another weak day for this currency pair mainly due to the strong sell-off of the euro. We are next to the static and dynamic support 123,50 where I definitely will be looking for one of my trading signals in order to return in the upward move. Any breakout, however, could push the pair lower to the next important level 121 (and this, indeed, is something not so improbable looking at bearish weekly pin candle drawing right now).
Thank you and see you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
as every Friday I realized my weekly analysis to show you the most interesting opportunities of the market.
Have a good weekend and see you Monday!
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
while U.S. stock exchange has been closed today for Washington’s Birthday, the main stock markets had a contrasted session with low volatility.
During the weekend the G-20 has essentially given the “green light” to Japan for its expansionary monetary policy, denying, in fact, the existence of a “currency war” (the ECB itself has also stressed that the Eur/Usd exchange is located within a “normal range” and the Eur/Yen pair is in a “not dramatic” appreciation level).
From Germany we had today the forecast of a higher a growth in the first quarter of 2013 and we will see tomorrow, about this, the result of the monthly confidence index ZEW.
ANALYSIS
US Oil: today (with the opening of the new monthly contract) the price is falling and approaching the important support level in area $ 94 - 94.80. It will be interesting to evaluate its stregth to verify the possible continuation of the medium term upward movement (and any possible Long signal) or a reversal move, in case of breakout, with bearish targets on levels $ 92.50 and $ 90.
Thank you and see you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
the important German ZEW index was higher than expected (so we had an increase in the confidence of the German economy) and this led to a rise in major European stock indices and especially in the Dax. We’ll see tomorrow if also the Consumer Prices Index in Germany will confirm this positive situation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, in his Minute, showed a slight optimism about the economic recovery (causing a rise in its currency) but it stressed anyway the possibility of future interest rate cuts.
ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: the cross is located in a clear downward trend and in a correction phase that retested the resistance area 1.2280 and then decreased down to 1.22. Another approach to the resistance level just mentioned might be a good price level to enter the short move with target 1.20.
Thank you and see you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
today I prepared a different video to present you a very interesting opportunity that many traders/investors were expecting since many weeks!
Enjoy the video and I wait for you to become a real Forex Friend!
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
as we could easily expect, stock markets reacted very strongly today after the indications emerged yesterday from Fed’s Minute. The possibility of a decrease in U.S. quantitative easing had the effect of generating a wave of buying of USD and a sharp risk sell-off, for indices (Dax -1,88%, CAC -2,29% and the U.S. indices with a negative session) and euro.
The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. slightly fell to 1,6% as analysts expected.
Tomorrow we will have the same macroeconomic data for Canada and the GDP in Germany.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: we are close to a very important level because the price tested the static and dynamic support area (of medium term) 1.3170. It is important now to find out if the short-term bearish movement may continue, leading to a reversal of the medium term trend (in this case we will be looking for a short trading setup after a pullback to 1.3280 area), or if the key support level will confirm its strength providing a new bullish movement and, by consequence, the search of a buying opportunity.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
this week is closing in the sign of the volatility with many announcements, more or less official, of central banks that moved the currency market.
For the economic calendar of next week we have a focus on the Italian elections and the expected volatility for next Friday with many important U.S. market movers.
Let’s see everything in my usual weekly video (with a good medium term buying opportunity in Gold!).
I wait for you to learn how to work, or invest, in a professional, serious and disciplined way in the foreign exchange and commodities market.
Happy weekend everyone!
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
the week opened with a rise for stock markets and a weakness for the yen and the pound.
The Japanese currency suffers the constant rumors about the name of the new Bank of Japan’s governor, while the british pound (that generated several gap in yesterday opening) was sold especially after Moody’s downgrading of the week-end.
Today (an yesterday) we had the Italian general election with data yet to confirm but with a volatility, for the Italian index, as rarely seen. Tomorrow we will know something definitive.
Also tomorrow we’ll have the important data of US consumer confidence and Mr. Ben Bernanke’s report to U.S. Senate.
ANALYSIS
US Oil: after an initial attempt of a bullish correction the price reacts by drawing a Pin candle in line with short term move. The breakout of the close support area could accentuate the downward trend to the next key level $ 90.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
the uncertainty resulting from the Italian election (which could continue until the middle of March, with the intent of forming a new government) did not help the stock markets and especially the Italian index, who collapses 5% in the opening and just recovered a little bit during the session. Uncertainty weighs, especially in Europe, and we can see it with the volatility of these two days.
The main market mover, tomorrow, will be the GDP of Great Britain and U.S. durable goods.
ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: after the strong bearish candle of yesterday, and the (failed) attempt of retracement, there is a possibility of a short entry with the breakout of today’s bottom and, in particular, of the support area 90.50. The first target level is 88.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
today we had a positive session on the financial markets still waiting for the Italian political situation and its impact on the euro area.
In Forex, waiting for the important day of Friday with the classic US market movers of the beginning of each month, we had an attempt of correction for the pound after the good GDP in UK, a weakness session for USD (with the durable goods orders worst than expected) and a strongest euro.
Tomorrow we will have several interesting data from Europe (the German market jobs data, Euro zone and Germany CPI, which could lead to a volatility in the euro), from U.S. (GDP) and from Japan (Consumer Price Index).
ANALYSIS
Gold: the resistance area $ 1,620 seems to be strong at the time and the price goes down after the retracement of the bearish movement started in early February. Now we could see a possible continuation of the downward move with a return to support area $ 1550.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
all the stock markets had a positive session with conflicting data from Europe (with a slightly lower-than-expected inflation in Germany and a slightly higher one in the euro zone) and a the U.S. GDP below the analysts’ expectations.
Waiting for the Japanese GDP, it has been appointed (pending parliamentary approval), the new governor of the Bank of Japan Mr.Haruiko Kuroda which would replace the outgoing Mr.Shirakawa from March the 20th.
Tomorrow let’s pay attention to the volatility of USD with the important data of the University of Michigan Confidence and the ISM Manufacturing in USA. Although it will be the first Friday of the month we will not have the usual NFPR that have been scheduled for next Friday, March the 8th.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: after 2 days of retracement, the price touched the resistance level 1.3160 and dropped to the previous bottom. The breakout of this level and especially the confirmed closing below 1.30 could push the price to the next support area 1.2850.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
this last week of February ended with a special focus to the decision that the U.S. government will have to take on the issue of public spending cuts, the so-called "sequester."
Next week we will pay attention to the volatility with 5 decisions of interest rates as well as the usual NFPR.
We see all this and some interesting trading opportunities in my usual weekly video!
I wish you a good weekend
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
last Friday US government didn’t find any agreement and the started the $ 85 billion of government spending cuts. This situation (in part), along with the uncertainty of the Italian political situation, influenced the stock markets which closed weakly. Producer prices in the euro area has been higher-than-expected today (+0.6%).
Tomorrow we will have the first of several interest rate decisions, with the RBA that should keep the price of money at 3% unchanged.
ANALYSIS
Aud/Usd: the possible confirmation of the interest rate at 3% could push up the Australian and facilitate the retracement (even temporarily) of this pair to the resistance area 1.0250. At this level, it would be interesting to look for a sell signal of my trading plan to enter the short-term bearish move with target in 1.0050.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
as expected the australian central bank left the rate unchanged at 3%, generating an initial upward trend of its currency. From Europe we had the data on Retail Sales which has been better than expected.
Also from the euro zone, tomorrow, we will have the Gross Domestic Product, as well as from Australia. We will also wait for the interest rate decision in Canada, expected unchanged at 1%.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: after the second day of technical correction, this pair seems to lose its strength and the confirmed break down of the 1.30 level could lead the most important pair firstly to the support area 1.2850 and then 1.27. It’s an Interesting situation to return in the short term bearish movement.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
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Good evening,
today’s session closed in a contrasted way for the stock market after the highs reached yesterday by the U.S. indices and the japanese one. The data of Australian GDP was in line with analysts’ expectations (+ 0.6%) as well as the one in the euro zone (- 0,6%).
As expected the Canadian interest rate has been confirmed by governor Mark Carney at 1% .
Tomorrow we could have a strong volatility with the 3 decisions of interest rates in Japan, Europe and UK with a consensus of analysts for the maintenance of the current levels.
ANALYSIS
German DAX: the German index broke upwards 7.870 points which was the top level of the 2-months sideways trend. Considering the short-term bullish movement I will be looking for the price to draw a long set up, after a possible technical correction in the level just violated.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
all as expected for the rate decisions! The Bank of Japan left interest rate unchanged at 0.10% and the same for the central banks of UK and Europe (respectively 0.50% and 0.75%) with the first one that also confirmed the plan of asset purchase. In his press conference, Mr. Mario Draghi underlined his expectation for a contraction of GDP growth in the euro area, noting that there should be a gradual recovery in the latter part of the year. In this regard also confirmed a continuation of accommodative monetary policy in order to encourage the re-start of the economic activity.
Tomorrow we will have the main market mover of the Forex market, Non Farm Payrolls, as well as the unemployment rates in U.S.A. and Canada so… beware the volatility!
ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: it looks like we are having, for the Yen, a new situation of weakness (waiting for the new Governor of the BoJ) and several currency pairs are getting close to resistance levels. The pair Usd/Yen is just retesting 94.60 area where a breakout (confirmed at the moment) could modify the short term outlook from “Sell” to “Buy” with the search for trading purchase signals.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini