after the “explosive” days of the last Thursday and Friday, we have seen today a much more quiet session in the absence of particularly relevant market movers: movements of “settling” for the equity indices and for the major currencies that still show a strong euro and a weakness of the yen.
Tomorrow we won’t have very important macro news, but only a certain attention to the industrial production and manufacturing production in the UK.
ANALYSIS
Gbp/Nzd: the pair is very close to the historic bottom level (1.79), within a phase of accumulation of the medium term downtrend. The confirmed breakout of this support area (might be possible considering the current strength of New Zealand Dollar) could push this cross down to a possible target on area 1.75.
also today stock markets had no very strong movements, closing the session in a contrasted way. Still in absence of important macroeconomic data (except the industrial and manufacturing production in UK, better than expected) we will wait tomorrow for the important Minute of the FOMC, to know the specific indications emerged in the last meeting of the Fed.
ANALYSIS
Gold: after having tested the important long-term support level, also seen in my weekly video last Friday, this precious pushes up returning close to the $ 1,590 (and to the EMA21). We have to control the next major resistance area (static and dynamic) $ 1615/1620 to evaluate a possible continuation of the bullish strength or, on the contrary, a reversal candle that might lead to the closing of our Long actual trade and, possibly, the search for a short signal.
stock markets had a stronger session today and showed a purchase strength especially in Milan, Madrid and Paris.
The dollar is slightly recovering, while continues the increase for the euro and especially for the “Commodity currencies” (Australian and New Zealand), pushed up by the good data of the Chinese import.
In the Minute of the FED, released with anticipation, the members appeared sharply divided on how long the bond purchase plan should last, with one of the members that considered a possible decrease (is the stimulus plan going to an end?!)
Among the major market movers of tomorrow we can remember the Consumer Price Index in Germany and some data on the Australian labor market.
ANALYSIS
Gbp/Nzd: the New Zealand Dollar strength led to the breakout of the support level 1.7915 (as I wrote before yesterday) preparing for a possible decline to the next important area 1.7470. Now let’s look for one of my trading signals to evaluate a short entry! Of course, in case of return up to the key level mentioned above (and therefore in case of a false bearish breakout) we will consider a bullish set up for a possible return to the top of the channel recently violated (1.8430 level).
as expected, the inflation in Germany remained unchanged (1.4%), unlike the unemployment rate in Australia that, in March, rose to 5.6%, above the expectations. We had an initial weakness of the Australian dollar which recovered in line with the bullish short-term movement and tied to the strength of the stock market indices.
These ones confirmed the positive trend, closing a positive session with historic tops for the American market.
Tomorrow the most important market movers will be from to the United States with the Retail Sales and the usual monthly appointment with the Confidence Index from the University of Michigan.
ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: despite the strength of the Australian, the pair continued its bearish movement (in line with the medium and short term trend) leading my short operation, opened a few days ago, to the take profit at 1.2190 before turning a little bit upward. The momentum is still bearish, so I’ll keep looking for new sales trading signals of my plan in the next resistance level 1.2310.
like every Friday here you have my video analysis about the macro and graphic situation for next week.
[B]I always remind you, if you want, the opportunity to take advantage by testing the 30-days free trial[/B] (totally free) of my service “Forex Friends” of daily trading and training videos with no intraday trading method!
after a positive start of the session, the major stock indexes turned negative closing down a day without important market movers. As last Friday, today we saw a sharp drop in the price of Gold (see the chart below), which confirms the reversal in the medium-term trend, as well as for Silver.
Tomorrow, in addition to the Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the German ZEW index, we will have the Consumer Price Index in different geographic areas: England, Euro zone, U.S. and New Zealand (all expected unchanged except in U.S. with a possible decrease).
ANALYSIS
Gold: the break out of the long-term historical support zone ($ 1.500/1.520) led the price reach many stop loss, of long positioned investors, creating a “domino effect” which became a true “panic selling” of the long positions. The price, which at the opening of last Friday was quoting $ 1560, today has touched the 2-years bottom of $ 1.355 inverting the medium-term movement. The actual goal is to find a momentary retracement to enter this great movement that could have, even in the short term, a target in the support area 1.310 $.
the Boston attack and the collapse of some commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) have contributed to increase the weakness in stock markets which closed, today, an uncertain session.
In its Minutes the RBA announced that the cuts of Australian interest rates (-1.75% from November 2011) have contributed to boost some sectors of the economy and its effects have not yet been fully revealed. RBA also comunicated that other interest cuts still may be needed in the future (although probably not in 2013).
The German ZEW index was lower than expected, showing a decline in confidence due to the euro area debt crisis and to the recent macro indicators below the expectations.
UK and Euro zone CPIs were in line with expectations while US one was a little bit lower.
Tomorrow will be characterized by the Minute of the BoE, by the interest rate decision in Canada and the Fed Beige Book.
ANALYSIS
US Oil: the technical pullback we saw today for raw materials led WTI to react in the dynamic level $ 86 with a strong bullish candle. The breaking out of the $ 89 area (even being a countertrend) could push the price to $ 92 (beware the expiration of the contract of this CFD scheduled for Thursday, April 18!).
after a positive start of the European markets, they turned down confirming the weakness of yesterday that we didn’see for Asian and Americans indices.
The Minutes of the Bank of England showed that the last confirmation of the interest rate was unanimous, but there are still 3 of the 9 members of the Board in favor of an increase in the Quantitative Easing (from 375 to 400 billion pounds, increasing for this reason, the weakness of the currency).
Everything as expected in Canada with the confirmation of the interest rate at 1%.
From the United States the usual publication of the Fed’s Beige Book about the U.S. Economy.
Tomorrow we will have the retail sales in the UK and the jobless claims in the U.S.
[B]Today I show you a demonstration video of my trading method in the Forex market, considering two recent operations performed on NZD purchase[/B].
today we will have the beginning of the G-20 meeting in Washington to discuss over the economic outlook and the issue of “currency war”; while stock markets after a good start (with the confirmation by Moody of the triple A for Germany, but with a negative outlook) closed contrasted influenced by Wall Street.
In Forex we had a slight strengthening of the euro and a dollar unchanged.
From the economic calendar we saw a retail sales data in England below expectations and the jobless claims in USA higher than expected (352k).
Tomorrow we will have, as main market mover, the consumer price index in Canada.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the euro tries to ricover but it’s influenced by the resulting of the presidential elections in Italy. The pair is still in the important area 1.3030 / 1.3050 which (in line with the short term trend and being above EMA21) could bring back again the quotation on level 1.3150, exactly where they were before the words, said yesterday, by the “wise” Weidmann, of the Bundesbank.
the G-20 continues today in Washington (with the finance ministers and central banks). The euro zone crisis remains the main topic of discussion, as it has been defined, by the IMF, as the cause of the decrease in global growth estimates. Another key issue for the G20 is the currency situation, in order to avoid voluntary currency depreciations for commercial advantages (of course without making direct references to the Bank of Japan!).
Today’s session, in financial markets, has been characterized by an upward correction, however, in a week in which the strength of the sellers has been predominant.
The most important macroeconomic data today was the Consumer Price Index in Canada, which was in line with expectations (1,4%).
As every Friday I prepared a short video analysis about the economic calendar and some interesting trading opportunities for the next week [B](including 2 nice trades in selling Yen!)[/B].
Very nice Maurizio, I’m unfortunately long Eur/jpy and usd/jpy, still holding over the weekend, waiting for retracement, you think I should be worried? My avg price are 127.8 and 98.35 respectively.
the G20 confirmed the invitation not to adopt devaluation policies for commercial purposes (“absolving”, however, the extraordinary policy recently adopted by the BoJ) emphasizing on the contrary the importance of monetary policy as a tool which aims to stabilize domestic prices and stimulate growth.
Today stock markets had positive opening, also considering the new election of the President of the Italy, but changed its move during the session, except Milan and Madrid.
In absence of very important macroeconomic data we will wait for the interest rate decision in New Zealand scheduled tomorrow night (European time).
In Forex we had another session of strength for the US Dollar, uncertainty for euro and another bullish retracement candle for gold.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the very short term sideways trend continues within the levels 1.3130 / 1.3020 but above the moving average. A strong bullish signal could be considered for a purchase (with target on the top of the range) otherwise a downward break, later confirmed by a bearish setup, could be negotiated with a profit target on area 1.2750.
Hello Ednaz, according to my method you can consider 10-15 most important currency pairs, watching only the daily charts and with no tool but the price, only the price!! Patience and discipline…
Bye, Maurizio
today we had a quiet day, from a macroeconomic perspective, and the most important market move will be released in a few hours (the interest rate in New Zealand, which is expected unchanged at 2.50%).
The markets closed a very positive session, expecially for Paris and Madrid, with a weaker euro due to the negative data on manufacturing PMI below expectations.
Tomorrow we will have from Australia the Consumer Price Index and from U.S.A. the Durable Goods.
ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: the oceanic pair is consolidating around the support area 1.22 /1.2150 within a short term bearish movement. The price is always below the EMA21 with decreasing tops, so a breakout of level 1.2140 might lead to a continuation of the downward trend to 1.2050 as first target area and then, eventually, to the second one at 1.1940. Anyway any trading decision should be taken after the announcement of the interest rate in New Zealand which is just coming in a few hours!
last night we had the confirmation of New Zealand’s interest rate at 2.50% , but also the RBNZ’s indication about the maintenance of the current level through all 2013 (with the obvious strengthening of its currency). From Oceania we also received the inflation data of Australia which was lower than expected (2.5% vs. 2.8%).
From the United States we had the Durable Goods Orders and from Germany the IFO index, both below expectations.
The most important market mover for tomorrow will be the UK’s GDP.
Stock markets close another positive session.
ANALYSIS
Usd/Chf: the pair is within a short-term bullish move but very close to a significant level (0.95 / 0.9550) of static and especially dynamic resistance (the long term downtrend line). Thus, we might consider a short entry, in presence of a strong bearish setup of my trading system with first target area on 0.9240.
UK’s GDP has been higher than expected (0.3% in the first quarter compared to 0.1% expected), avoiding the recession in the country and strengthening the pound against the dollar and the euro .
The stock markets had a positive session with ongoing “rumors” about possible upcoming cuts of the ECB interest rate, despite the disagree of Chancellor Merkel.
Tomorrow pay attention to the volatility of the yen and the dollar for the interest rate decision in Japan (and the following press conference Mr.Kuroda) and for the U.S. GDP.
ANALYSIS
Gold: the bullish pullback continues and, after a brief pause two days ago, it is going closer to the resistance area $ 1460/1470 highlightned here in “Forex Friends” (and also corresponding to the 50% retracement of Fibonacci). At this level I will verify the presence of one of my trading signals to enter a short position and take advantage of a possible continuation of the bearish movement with first target at $ 1,410 and then in the next bottom at $ 1,330.
in this week we saw a confirmation of the interest rates in New Zealand and Japan. In this country we also had the confirmation of the monetary policy to achieve the inflation target of 2%.
Yesterday we saw a strong movement of the british pound as a result of the good GDP data of the UK that avoided the danger of a recession.
The next week will be particularly important because we will see the usual monthly market mover Non Farm Payrolls (the most important in Forex) and also two interest rate decisions in the U.S. and Europe (perhaps with a possible downside surprise!).
As every Friday we look these, and other, macroeconomic data in my usual weekly video, along with the most interesting trading opportunities for the new market opening.
I wish you a nice week-end!
Greetings
Maurizio Orsini
we are about to enter the first week of May and it will surely be important in view of the macroeconomic data that will come from Europe and the United States, as mentioned in my weekly video last Friday. As a matter of fact today we had the Consumer Price Index in Germany and the individual consumption in the U.S., both lower than expected.
Also tomorrow we will have from Germany the change in employment, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone, the Canadian GDP and the consumer confidence in the U.S.
Stock indexes were positive and will be interesting to see what could be the reaction in the levels of resistance (“sell in May and go away”?).
ANALYSIS
Copper: we are in a bearish phase, both in the short to medium-term. After an upward technical correction, we saw last Friday a false break of the resistance $ 3.23 and now a new test of it. Right in this level, we can find one of my trading signals to resume the bearish movement with a first target area on $ 3.08 .
