Goodnight,
we are at the end of a week marked by the confirmation of the major central banks’s actual monetary policy and by achieving important levels for some of the major stock indexes.
As always we see the macroeconomic and graphic situation in my usual weekly analysis.
Have a nice weekend everybody!
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
the new week begins with weak financial markets and in the absence of strong relevance market movers on the economic calendar (except for parliamentary confirmation of the new governor of the Bank of Japan Mr.Kuroda, in office since March 19).
The euro remained weak against the major currencies as well as the U.S. dollar, in a slight correction after the strong move of the last Friday, and the commodities.
ANALYSIS
GAS: the medium-term bearish trendline has been broken and the price is right now in the important level $ 3.64. The upward breakout would be interesting to look for a Long opportunity with a first possible target on the resistance area $ 3.80/3.90.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
today the stock markets closed a low volatile session slightly around the values of yesterday, with a better performance for the commodities (especially the precious metals).
The data of the german Consumer Price Index has been in line with analysts’ expectations, while the European Central Bank today confirmed that its currency is in line with the historical average and with the fundamentals of the euro zone.
Tomorrow, besides the interest rate decision in New Zealand, we will also have the data on retail sales in the U.S. (In this regard I really apologize for the mistake of last night: the strange belief that I was in Tuesday led me to highlight the NZD interest news for today while, on the contrary, it will be released tomorrow Wednesday March 13…I apologize again for the imprecision).
ANALYSIS
Copper: the triangle of possible bearish continuation has been broken but with a strong upward move and the price is now above the static and dynamic area $ 3,53. We are still below the moving average, but a slight correction on the key level, with a Long trading signal, might also be considered for a possible return to the $ 3.60 area.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
the today we had a negative session for the stock markets with higher losses for Milan, Tokyo and London. The data on retail sales in the U.S. was much higher than expected (1.1% against 0,5%) generating strength in the USD.
Another interest rate decision will be taken tomorrow by the Swiss National Bank, together with other important data coming from the U.S. (the Production Price Index) and from Australia (about the labor market).
ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: second day of retracement that pushed the price on the support area 95.80. The closing above level 96 and expecially the breakout of today’s top could resume the uptrend, also in line with the expectations of devaluation pursued by the Bank of Japan.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
today’s session showed a positive day for the stock market and in particular for Milan, Madrid and Frankfurt.
From the australian labor market we had good news with a sharp increase in the number of employed, together with a stability in the unemployment rate.
From Switzerland, the central bank has confirmed the level of interest rates as well as the floor of 1.20 in the exchange rate against the euro.
From the United States we had the Production Price Index which showed an increase compared to the previous one, but, however, lower than analysts’ expectations.
Tomorrow we will expect the Consumer Price Index in Europe and in the United States.
ANALYSIS
Gbp/Usd: we are always in a clear medium-short period downward trend, in a technical correction phase that is approaching the price to the resistance area 1.5150. This level could be an interesting point where to search a possible short set up with a target on the weekly support area 1.44.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
the positive trend of the stock indices continues with a weakness of the dollar in last part of the week.
The next week we will have the interest rate decision in the United States. However, you can find all the main market movers and trading opportunities in my usual weekly video.
Have a nice weekend everybody.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
definitely the theme of the day has been the delicate situation in Cyprus which influenced all equity markets as well as the great weakness of the euro, especially at yesterday markets open. The hypothesis of the increasing taxation on Cypriots deposit accounts, as a conditio sine qua non for the 10 billion euros aid, could create panic among depositors, serious problems in the banking system and the resume of concerns about the stability of the Euro area after a few months of momentary “silence” over the problem. Thus it will be more interesting to know, tomorrow, the German ZEW index about the economic sentiment, in addition to the Minute of the Australian central bank and to the Consumer Prices Index in the UK.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: as all pairs with the euro, it began the new week with a strong bearish gap that makes the chart less easy to understand from a technical point of view. The session, however, closed with a rebound to the resistance area 1.2950 (bottom side of the previous channel) where, in line with a short-term downtrend, we could consider a bearish entry, in case of clear short trading signal, with target at 1.27 support area.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
the two main macro data from Europe were pretty much in line with expectations, with the German Zew index equal to 48.1 (against 48.2 expected) and the Price Consumer Index in the UK at 2.8% (compared to 2.7% expected).
Today there was the expected vote by the Cypriot Parliament on European aid with the rejection of the bank deposit tax.
The stock markets had a session rather weak and with negative movements.
During today we also saw the step down of the governor of the Bank of Japan Mr.Shirakawa.
Tomorrow will be an important day because we will have, as well as the Minute of the BoE and the GDP of New Zealand, the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (with Mr. Bernanke’s press conference).
ANALYSIS
Gbp/Usd: the Cable is proceeding in a very short term lateral move characterized by two inside candles. The break-down of 1.5060 level could facilitate the down move to the next support area 1.49 as first target.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
the decision of the Cyprus Parliament not to approve the super tax on bank deposits does not seem to have caused damage to the stock and currency market, on the other hand the EU announced that now it’s up to Cyprus (which is still dealing with Russia) to find another solution to the problem. Equity markets had a positive session especially for Milan and Paris.
The main market mover today was definitely the decision of U.S. rates that, as expected, has not been changed compared to the previous 0.25%. The governor Bernanke, in his press conference, confirmed the current bond purchase plan, a gradual economic growth and low interest rates until the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Aud: the cross reacted in the 1.2420 support area highlighting a temporary recovery in the strength of the euro. The trend is still bearish in the short term so the idea is to look for a short signal after a possible correction on levels 1.2520 / 1.2550.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
P.S: If you want you can try, completely free (and without providing any payment information), my daily video service Forex Friends of trading signals and training! Just sign up to my site and request a free 1-month trial (FOREX FRIENDS | MauriForexMauriForex) to learn how to work/invest in a serious and professional way in the foreign exchange and commodity market.
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Good evening,
equity markets had a weak session (especially Paris and Frankfurt) waiting for the solution of the Cypriot issue.
In the absence of very important market movers, I point out the data on retail sales in the UK (better than expected) and the jobless claims in the United States (lower than expected).
After the official appointment, today was held the first speech of the new governor of the Boj Mr.Kuroda. He said that his main target is to beat deflation and he will do it without relying on a weak Yen and without buying govm.bonds but considering the purchase of other asset, including real estate (REITS).
Tomorrow the only important market mover will be the German IFO index on economic confidence.
ANALYSIS
Silver: we are in the upper level of the short period sideway channel and, considering the medium term down move (we’re still below the EMA21) we could evaluate short signals on level 29.40$ with a first target on the support area $28.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Hi everybody,
after the confirmation of the U.S. interest rates and the first speech of the new Bank of Japan’s Governor, we prepare to enter the last week of March with interesting trading situations to evaluate.
Enjoy my weekly video and have a nice week-end!
Greetings, Maurizio.
P.S: you can still request for free the 30 days training videos on my web page MauriForex | Forex Market training centerMauriForex entering the page Forex Friends, if you didn’ do it yet!
Good evening,
last night was finally reached an agreement between the Troika and the Cypriot Government! This one will “hit” all bank accounts of over 100.000euro (which will suffer important losses) protecting the smaller depositors (but not the russians!) and proceeding to the close of the second largest bank, Laiki Bank. Troika will give next May the € 10 billion needed to save the island.
Financial markets reacted positively to the agreement but later changed their move and closed negative. The same happened with the euro, that strengthened in the first part of the session (after the negative opening of yesterday) and got weaker in the second part.
Tomorrow we will expect two important major market movers from the USA: the durable goods order and the consumer confidence.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: after Cyprus news there was an attempt to recover but the price reacts strongly on the level 1,3050 falling below 1.2850. We are still within a short period laterality but the break-down of its bottom could push this pair to the next area of support 1.27.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
equity markets rebounded today without obtaining a positive result for all indices: the “Cyprus model” led operators to prefer prudence towards those “risky countries”.
The two main data expected today were contrasted, with the durable goods order at 5,7% and the consumer confidence worst than expected.
Tomorrow we will have the British GDP and the Consumer Prices Index in Canada.
ANALYSIS
Nzd/Usd: the long and short term trend is bullish with the strength of New Zealand dollar that could push the pair up to area 0.85. The goal is to enter this movement by taking advantage of a possible correction on the support level 0.8350.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
between the most important market movers today we had the British GDP (-0.3% as expected) and the Canadian Consumer Price Index (+1.2% higher than expected).
Equity markets got weaker as at the beginning of this week, with a worst performance for Frankfurt, Madrid and Paris.
Tomorrow we will expect from Germany the unemployment rate and from Canada and United States gross domestic product.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: it finally broke the short-term laterality and the trend takes the bearish medium term direction. In the level just broken (area 1.28) we may consider a possible retracement, with a trading signal, to enter the short movement.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
In this Holy Thursday (last day of trading for Cfd) the stock markets had a positive session compared to the drop of yesterday.
We had a good data on Canadian GDP (1% and slightly more than expected), not so good the U.S. GDP (0.4% less than expected).
In Forex we had a session of correction for the dollar and a stronger one for the euro waiting for the last trading day that, with all stock indices closed, will be less liquid and more volatile.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the assumed retracement I wrote yesterday happened today. Paying attention to the lack of liquidity that we will have tomorrow and Monday, we can look for a short trading signal to enter the downtrend!
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Hi traders,
as usual I prepared my video analysis to show you how interesting and profitable is my method in the currency and commodity market!
Enjoy it and have a nice Holy Easter.
God bless you
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
after a slow start the stock markets turned positive and seemed not to have suffered from Italian politics uncertainty, with a good close for Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid.
The RBA decided to keep rates unchanged at 3% not excluding in the future an increase of expansionary policies in order to achieve the inflation target.
The unemployment in Europe continues to be worrying because it’s still at record levels of 12%.
From Europe we also had the Consumer Prices Index of Germany at 1, 4% (slightly higher than expected).
ANALYSIS
Nzd/Usd: after the bullish candles of last week (which I considered to enter at market) the price broke upwards the bullish continuation triangle. The technical target of the probable bullish movement is in the resistance area 0.8530. A momentary pullback on the level 0.8390 could represent a second opportunity of purchase for those who left out of the trade.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
the bullish movement of the European markets had a short life, as today the strength of the sellers came back, especially for the “weaker” countries of the euro zone as Italy and Spain.
Tomorrow we will have a very important session in view of the interest rate decisions in Japan (the first for the new governor Mr.Kuroda!), in the UK and in Europe. Analysts are expecting a general confirmation of the current levels, however from the ECB are reaching some “rumors” about new future reductions. Pay attention to the press conference Mr. Mario Draghi that, as always, can generate important movements of volatility for the euro.
ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: we are in a bearish medium and short term move that draws today an internal Pin candle which attempted a technical correction. The breakout of yesterday’s low (1.2390) could push the cross downward to area 1.23 before and 1.2150 after.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Good evening,
according to the forecasts, the three central banks confirmed today the interest rates (0.10% in Japan, 0.50% in England and 0.75% in Europe), but especially the governors’ statements have been more interesting. The new chief of the Bank of Japan has announced a sharp increase in quantitative easing, to achieve the inflation target, by means of further asset purchases, even of higher risk.
From Europe, Mr. Mario Draghi in his press conference announced that inflation expectation remain firmly anchored and the ECB policy will be accommodative as long as needed (without cutting the interest rate in the short term) while governments should continue to implement reforms. Nothing new from the BoE.
Tomorrow we will have another session of high volatility especially with the Non Farm Payrolls, the most important market mover of the Forex market.
ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: after the BoJ communication the Yen collapsed causing at the same time a massive dollar purchases. The currency pair increased nearly 300 pips to the important resistance area 96.50. The breakout of this level would be a confirmation of the bullish momentum and would give me the absolute conviction to look for a buying trading signal with target on level 100.
Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
Hello traders,
we are at the end of another week characterized, as expected, by high volatility in the last two days. We saw important movements in some currencies and commodities which are close to very important price levels (such as Gold and Silver) and there will be great trading opportunities for next week!
You can see a part of my full weekly analysis as usual.
Have a nice weekend and see you next Monday!
Maurizio Orsini