Thanks for the wiki link Westfx,will have a proper look through a it tonight.
Some rough seas out there! The news from yesterday is still making waves big time!
Be careful.
yea been a funny couple of days really. Got rid of my gbp/usd sell trades and gone long…few pips up atm…back up to 1.7000 hopefully!
Funny couple of weeks in my opinion.
Keep an eye on the gbp/usd long, I still think it should do it, but if it pushes much lower then you might want to pull your limit down to break even.
Will keep an eye on it but looks like its getting into a narrower and narrower range.
Having looked in more detail at various euro pairs, I wonder whether Draghi’s comment about the euro on Thursday are a game changer with regard to euro strength.
I will be very cautious about taking any euro longs, until I have a clear suggestion that the market is till following the overall technical picture.
Ooops. I’m long on EUR/JPY atm. Up 22 pips but not really doing anything. Will have to keep an eye on it. Need some greens this week after taking a hit on GBP/USD last week.
All the analysts are saying that it was more of speculation on the markets just listening to the news. Regardless, we still need to zuluguard every trader’s move, like it or not.
Noted so not long on the euro 
what about the dollar/yen situation? …hows zulutrade going on? happy with the performance and the followers?
Only time will tell whether its a game changer for the euro or not.
For the next couple of weeks I would suggest staying clear, at least until some clear price action is put down.
Again, its quite hard to know what the usd/jpy will do because its 90% correlated longterm to the eur/jpy. So if it really is the start of a weak euro then the eur/jpy will go down and so might the usd/jpy.
Technically, the usd/jpy looks like it should be going up and looks like it has started to. If the price pushes higher than the last significant high around 103.05 then I would be comfortable buying it once it has retraced.
Zulu is fine thanks. Performance has been weaker than usual in the last couple of weeks due to the bank holidays and then ‘super mario’ [Draghi] making his comments.
As soon as the market decides what’s going on profit will be as strong as usual.
Hows things with you?
ps.
If people are unsure about what the markets think about certain news of currency strength or weakness, then the COT [commitment of traders] can be useful or your platform provider might have something like a sentiment index, which shows what its users are doing. 9 out of 10 times you should do the OPPOSITE of what the retail traders [man in the street, not hedge funds etc] are doing.
So for example, FXCM has the SSI [speculative sentiment index] which shows what its users are trading and how.
At the moment the majority had been shorting the eur/usd and it had done nothing but go up [remember, do the opposite] but today fewer people are short. If this continues and the majority are then long, that would make me think that it will probably start to weaken long term.
Make sense?
I see the logic behind this, but how does the SSI account for those who are shorting into strength and securing profits accordingly as the pair continues to grind up? So, just because the majority of retailers are short over x amount of trading sessions, you’re bias is to the long side? Rather than seeing the current trend to the topside and simply aligning oneself with that alone? Seems like just another “thing” to cloud up your judgement.
FXCM has proven that when retailers are wrong, they’re REALLY wrong (i.e. holding onto positions for too long hoping for it to turn around). At the same time, the SSI has been REALLY good @ picking tops and bottoms (i.e. when retailers are extremely short, or extremely long, a top or bottom may be around the corner). Maybe the latter would be that 1 time out of 10 when we’d want to follow the crowd.
Let’s take a look @ the EURUSD. I’ve been shorting @ a rate of 6:1 for the last 2 months. For every 1 long position, I’m shorting 6. It’s not impossible to make money going against the prevailing move, as I prefer to counter-trend trade. To be honest with you, I don’t even pay attention to the trend! I can care less. If my strategy gives me a signal, either long or short, I’m taking it- bottom line.
Here’s the thing, if the market is giving me a signal that a pair is going to trade lower, I’m going to make that trade 10 times out of 10. Which is exactly why I shorted the EURO @ 3980 last week. The trend is meaningless to me as long as my signal is sound and my profit targets are reasonable.
Hi,
Your right it that it doesn’t account for somethings, like you mention. Its just a general view of what FXCM users are doing.
But without knowing who is retail and non, then its very difficult to quantify it beyond just getting a rough idea of what most users think. Most traders are not making money going against a larger trend, as its impossible for the majority to be doing that.
Its like any indicator, its just a lagging indication, its not right all the time and it might not be of any use at all depending on your strategy.
If your having success trading your system then great and its probably best not to change it.
Why did you short the euro last week? Did you put the trade up on the forum before hand?
Kind regards.
Agreed.
As for the EURO- I shorted the rally into 1.4 (intraday momentum divergence was one of the supporting factors).
Didn’t post in the forum - I had considered starting my own “journal” / “thread” with trade ideas, then abandoned that because that’s not how I wanted to interact with others on Babypips.
Have a profitable week,
Jake
Intraday momentum divergence sounds interesting.
Are you happy to explain how this works?
Those 4 trades you made pips on this morning for some reason I didnt get :S havnt unfollowed or anything, just didnt copy them :S
I think something strange is going on with zulu, because they shouldnt have opened yet??? and the aud/chf shouldnt have closed???
The price was nowhere near on my fxcm account, I think its either a issue on the zulu account or a large price spike of some sort!?!?
Very strange!
Zulu are investigating
I have 1x pending order AUD/CAD and three open (same 3x pairs you have open) - I imagine this is the same for you?
Let me know what they say.
Thanks
I think it must have been a price spike, because my orders have gone.
So you should have benefited from them.
Zulu might say that it was a price spike there end but due to execution time and slippage, it didn’t execute your trades.
Either way, i’ll re enter the trades and you will get them next time.