What Every New & Or Aspiring Forex Trader... Still Wants To Know

[mozdef]

Awesome video. Thanks for explaining how to get those charts.

[hellogoodbye4201]

[B]Interest Rate Overlay Tutorial [/B]Video posted on the thread’s first post.

Thanks for the ratings and votes on the thread’s poll. I’m sure some regular spotlight seekers will use it to vent… but that’s okay. I’m only interested in the overall viewpoint of the readers.

As a future feature of this thread… a weekly trade example on the tools in action and they will post as an archive on the first thread as well. This will be one weekly video not daily so it will highlight the effectiveness of chasing down the ideal prey and letting the little one’s pass us by.

Hope the tutorial helps… and as always folks… GLGT!

So, for long GPBUSD we want falling US2,5,10,30Y, USD Index, and net long commercial > net short commercial on the COT report? Along with Daily, 4h, and 1h bullish on GU. Opposite for short? Does that sound right?

[mozdef]

So, for long GPBUSD we want falling US2,5,10,30Y, USD Index, and net long commercial > net short commercial on the COT report? Along with Daily, 4h, and 1h bullish on GU. Opposite for short? Does that sound right?

I think you would look at the non-commercials as they represent the speculators.

[mozdef]

Looking at the yields for the 2,5 and 10 yr bonds at PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts

i noticed that on december 17th (last friday), the 5 and 10 yrs made higher lows while the 2 yr yield failed to make a higher low (same low as last time). This would indicate a bearish divergence in interest rates? in that case we should have been looking for longs on eur/usd today right? am i reading and interpreting this correctly?

thanks in advance

[vonner]

Along with Daily, 4h, and 1h bullish on GU.

Sorry for the newbie question but what does GU stand for? :o

From what I understand, long on GBP/USD would be everything you mentioned and then wait for the price to find support at a S/R line right? Then you would go long. That way you maximize the R:R ratio. At least that’s what I understood so far…

[hellogoodbye4201]

Sorry for the newbie question but what does GU stand for? :o

From what I understand, long on GBP/USD would be everything you mentioned and then wait for the price to find support at a S/R line right? Then you would go long. That way you maximize the R:R ratio. At least that’s what I understood so far…

GU means GBPUSD, EU would mean EURUSD and GJ would mean GBPJPY and yes I believe you would wait for price to find support then enter long there

[vonner]

Thanks for the clarification

At least now I know that I understand what ICT has been telling us.

[MCAWally]

Looking at the yields for the 2,5 and 10 yr bonds at PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts

i noticed that on december 17th (last friday), the 5 and 10 yrs made higher lows while the 2 yr yield failed to make a higher low (same low as last time). This would indicate a bearish divergence in interest rates? in that case we should have been looking for longs on eur/usd today right? am i reading and interpreting this correctly?

thanks in advance

The way I see it: 2yrs making a lower low, the 5, 10, 30yrs aren’t or higher lows = bullish US$.

I don’t know about a EURUSD trade though because this is showing a divergance on the US dollar, you would need something else showing strength or weakness on the Euro before considering a trade, thats how I look at it anyway.

Wally

[wrtm_19]

Looking at the yields for the 2,5 and 10 yr bonds at PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts

i noticed that on december 17th (last friday), the 5 and 10 yrs made higher lows while the 2 yr yield failed to make a higher low (same low as last time). This would indicate a bearish divergence in interest rates? in that case we should have been looking for longs on eur/usd today right? am i reading and interpreting this correctly?

thanks in advance

As McWally posted before, I also see a bullish divergence, plus COT report shows net long positions on the dollar matching the long bias on the Dollar index, and along with this, we’ve been watching selling pressure on the Cable and Euro.

But I’m saying this after the fact. Let’s see what happens next

[wrtm_19]

Hello ICT and everyone,

I have a question regarding the COT report.

Current COT report show net long positions on Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc among others

How do we use this information when deciding directional bias when for instance in USD/CAD, both currencies have long positions?

Thank you.

[mozdef]

The way I see it: 2yrs making a lower low, the 5, 10, 30yrs aren’t or higher lows = bullish US$.

I don’t know about a EURUSD trade though because this is showing a divergance on the US dollar, you would need something else showing strength or weakness on the Euro before considering a trade, thats how I look at it anyway.

Wally

You’re right, it’s bullish divergence. I’m still unsure of this stuff sometimes lol :o

I guess with euro being net short on the COT, it did pan out with the euro continuing to make lower low’s so far this week. Anything else I’m missing regarding euro’s weakness?

[mozdef]

As McWally posted before, I also see a bullish divergence, plus COT report shows net long positions on the dollar matching the long bias on the Dollar index, and along with this, we’ve been watching selling pressure on the Cable and Euro.

But I’m saying this after the fact. Let’s see what happens next

Thanks, on second look I do see it as bullish divergence now

[Sweet_Pip]

I just wanted to post a warm Merry Christmas wish to everyone and a properous New Year!!!

GLGT & MCHN

I’d like to wish you and everyone a Merry Christmas & a profitably Happy New Year too!

[vonner]

Hi Guys,

Got a question on the COT.

Taking a look at the COT as of Dec 14, 2010, the figures for GBP are below (I’ve also attached the image):

BRITISH POUND STERLING - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-096742
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/14/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT

(CONTRACTS OF GBP 62,500) OPEN INTEREST: 67,820
COMMITMENTS
12,205 20,391 0 37,905 28,386 50,110 48,777 17,710 19,043

CHANGES FROM 12/07/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -18,449)
-2,037 -6,771 -1,716 -14,238 -7,876 -17,991 -16,363 -458 -2,086

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
18.0 30.1 0.0 55.9 41.9 73.9 71.9 26.1 28.1

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 65)
11 20 0 18 23 29 43

You’ll notice that under the COMMERCIAL traders, we have a higher LONG commitment than SHORT commitment overall. But, if you look at the change in open interest, you will notice that the LONG positions fell considerably more than the SHORT positions (-14,238 vs -7,876). How would you read this in terms of the position the “smart money” is gonna take? Do you say, “yes they are going long because there are more LONG positions” or do you say, “no they are going short because many more have dropped their LONG positions from the previous week”?

Just as a note, the GBP/USD fell after this by quite a bit. Not sure if it could have been due to other external factors too though.

[Jaroon]

Is there a source where I can find a simple graphical presentation of the C.O.T.

I’d like it free along with next weeks lottery numbers, either or will suffice.

Jaroon

[o990l6mh]

Is there a source where I can find a simple graphical presentation of the C.O.T.

I’d like it free along with next weeks lottery numbers, either or will suffice.

Jaroon

Try Commodity Futures & FOREX Price Charts

or FutureSource.com | Futures, Forex & Commodities Quotes, Charts, News & Analysis

[Jaroon]

No lottery numbers ay. Thanks mate that’s spot on.

I’m really gonna have to sort my bookmarks out, they’re out of control:)

[Romyo1984]

thx for you dear

[Jaroon]

Another quick chart quiery Sirs.

The usd index charts I’m looking at have (EOD) in the title, is this the correct chart and what’s EOD. I’ve looked on wiki and else where but am joyless:(

[ukdave]

Another quick chart quiery Sirs.

The usd index charts I’m looking at have (EOD) in the title, is this the correct chart and what’s EOD. I’ve looked on wiki and else where but am joyless:(

Found this:

EOD = End of Day. End of Day chart shows the daily movement of price. It generally shows the open, high, low and close price of complete day. It does not show how price has moved during the day between 9.00 am to 3.30 pm but just summarises the info in just 4 price point. It also show the total volume traded in the whole day.

I’ve been using US Dollar Index Realtime Chart | USD Index Real Time Chart. Be interested to know if there’s anything better out there?