Ah Ha!!!
So even though you put up $1879.09 which is about 37.6% of your capital…
You only risk losing $100 if you set a 25 pip SL with a lot size of 40k.
Awesome.
Wow I’m not sure how I didn’t get that.
Thanks So much cubanpip2010 !!
I really appreciate it.
I know that was a pretty remedial question.
Thanks!
Doug
How much you risk is determined by your stop loss in pips times the value of each pip.
If you have a 25 pip stop loss in place then that is the most you can loose on the trade.
So assuming your stop loss gets hit and you loose 25 pips, then how much does each pip have to be worth for that 25 pips to add up to $100 (2% of 5k)?
Each pip has to equal $4 ($4 times 25pips = $100).
In order for each pip to be worth $4 your trade size has to be what? 4 mini lots.
Good explanation, Mike.
If my translation of your Latin is correct, you are saying “bastards are not carburetors”.
Then again, my Latin is not rusty. My Latin is non-existent.
don’t let the bastards wear you down
Illegitimi non carborundum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
it’s not official Latin
Good questions… and the Top Down Analysis outline will filter out many false setups as the video explained… this is where and how you should start as a newbie… slow trades and less frequent executions. Remember, you are new and inexperience will most definitely take it toll on your Demo or worse… real account. Plan for this and allow time for yourself to learn your reactions to trading the setups and give yourself permission to take time in development. I realize this is hard… and that’s why most self-destruct… lack of patience and time to find their personal approach without chasing every swing.
After you understand how the Top Down Analysis approach works and filters false signals… you will see a number of setups every week and if you must… even daily. I am presenting this to keep the impatient newbies from day trading and trying to run their 100 or 500 accounts on every “would be scalp”. If you understand where the major direction is headed… it is fairly easy to find setups in that direction on any timeframe to trade and trade quite frequently. So don’t worry we will cover scalping and all that. Get yourself planted on a firm foundation of Market Structure and Top Down Analysis to put the odds in your favor.
My style of trading is multi-dimensional… I can apply my concepts to any timeframe and direction. I, however, am experienced and wouldn’t expect a newbie to attempt this as it is the experience factor you have to learn which I can’t teach… and to safely arrive there… you need time and patience.
I can countertrend trade against the 4 hour trend or Market Flow as you will learn… but it requires specific parameters to be in place. I know it is a killer wanting to know when to buy and sell and ride swings up and down. Resist this as we learn and cover the material.
It might not seem like it now… but the framework for any possible style of trading is being laid out here… as it begins to further come to light, you will see many setups and much like a musician reads music notes… the charts will come alive and you will read the rhythm of the markets. I promise… it will be explained… I know exactly what you’re feeling. :o
Igpay atinlay?
Or in Canadian version of that…Igpeh atinleh…:p:D
Hi Everyone,
Newbie question here. Where can I get the most recent COT report? I tried accessing the report the way it’s taught in the School of Pipsology but it seems the report there is always delayed.
For instance, if you check it now, the report available is dated 12/28/2010. Shouldn’t the first report for January 2011 already be available (since it’s weekly)?
This is the link I’m looking at: CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report - CBT (Futures Only)
Thanks for the help!
The Commitments of Traders reports are released at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. The Futures Only reports and Futures and Options Combined reports are usually released on [B]Friday[/B]. The release usually includes [B]data from the previous Tuesday[/B]. Federal holidays may delay release by one day.
Ok, what is this telling us? Is this the section of the chart where we would measure any divergences? If so, would we say the highs are diverging a little? If a little, is that enough to consider a future downward directional bias for the USD?
Ohhh…so it’s always delayed by a week. I thought they would release data as of that Tuesday. My bad
Thanks for clarifying!
Sweet Pips, you’re bonds chart is only showing data up to November 29th? Shouldn’t you be looking at more recent data?
Hmmm…you’re right…I don’t see where to change the dates but redoing it seems to have grabbed the most recent data…go figure :o
I’ll re-post the chart shortly…and it appears I don’t have to change my text 
Little arrows at either end of the “200 day” line let you scroll backward or forward.
yep but if you’ve been on that page for more than a day you also have to refresh everyday to get the newest data…this is only for people like me who don’t turn their computer off…ever
Thanks v much for that answer ICT… all makes perfect sense. For the moment yes, it’s a case of taking things slowly and carefully. Ensuring that each trading decision is backed up by a solid rationale built around sound market understanding. That makes sense. I’m currently applying that thinking in demo trade only, and as mentioned previously, it’s making as huge difference. Far fewer trades. Far better results. Thanks again for your comprehensive response.
Ah…I see. Thanks
It certainly has been. Traders have been pushing USD weakness and higher commodities for quite a while now due to the ongoing QE2 programme. But recent positive US economic numbers combined with the effect of QE2 on bonds is pushing DXY up. Also, the failure of QE2 to bring lower rates (rates are actually creeping higher) to the US is also having an upward effect on USD. Even the monster German factory orders today wasn’t enough to send USD down at all as it had no effect on EUR - though NFPs tomorrow might have something to do with that. The recent Fed minutes showed that although they intend to keep QE2 going for the full amount due to employment problems there was some optimism about the economic recovery. I’m pretty sure that market participants have been pricing in QE3 to infinity into the continued USD weakness but if QE3 appears less likely this might buttress USD in the short to medium term as they reduce these positions.
In short though I can see DXY strengthening some over the next while as traders pare their bets on continued USD weakness so long as there’s no dire US economic numbers. However given the obvious desire of the US to weaken the dollar to reduce the debt and improve exports all it’ll take for The Bernank to hammer the dollar again is to start laying out plans for QE3 which is most likely what the US will have to do if it wants to avoid a large stock market plunge once QE2 ends.
